ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#181 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:06 am

most certainly peaked. Looks to be running into strong southwesterly shear
0 likes   

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

Re:

#182 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:07 am

I'm not sure to be totally honest.... I've not been able to get a lot of info from her or pics as of yet.

Really wish that we had some live radar feeds so we could get a better idea of what is going on.

I initially thought that Sal would end up on the west of the eye Wall.... I am not so sure any more :(

1900hurricane wrote:Any idea if it is surge flooding or freshwater runoff?
Last edited by leanne_uk on Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
weatherwindow
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
Location: key west/ft lauderdale

Re:

#183 Postby weatherwindow » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:38 am

CrazyC83 wrote:When was the last time the Cape Verde islands had a direct landfall by a tropical storm or hurricane? This might just be one...


While many tropical systems have affected the Cape Verdes, direct impacts by hurricanes are extremely rare. Since 1851, only three hurricanes have landfell the archipelago. In addition to Fred, Debbie in 1961 and an unnamed hurricane in 1892 are the only hurricanes of record to impact the Cape Verse Islands.....Greeting from Key West.....Rich
0 likes   

KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

Re:

#184 Postby KBBOCA » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:09 am

leanne_uk wrote:Just had news from my friend who is in Santa Maria.... There is currently around 4 inches on the ground in her hotel and the winds are intensifying as expected.

They still have power at the minute but she doesn't know how much longer it will hold out. I am hoping that she is able to get pics over to me once things settle down and I shall post them accordingly.

The worrying thing is that no one at all seems to have been prepared for this.... I know that getting a hurricane is pretty much unheard of but even yesterday when my friend tried to speak to the staff about what was happening, she was told not to worry it will probably just rain for a bit and be a bit windy.
I'm just glad I was at least able to give her a proper heads up and she knew what she needed to do.


This is so awesome. Amazing how powerful a good forum like S2K can be in getting important info to those who need it. Thanks Leanne for looking out for your friend like this. Well Done. And thanks for sharing the information on the situation on the ground here.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#185 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:27 am

may not have peaked, since the eye is not visible on vis and IR

Santa Maria is now reporting sustained TS winds, with gusts to 47 mph, along with very heavy rainfall
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5248
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#186 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:59 am

Looks like a rough day on the beach, those people have no business being out there but it's probably quite the spectacle.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#187 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:19 am

Image

a hurricane to remember!
0 likes   

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

#188 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:23 am

Is that the eye starting to become apparent the west of Sol?
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1787
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#189 Postby otowntiger » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:28 am

Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#190 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:32 am

otowntiger wrote:Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.


That's the Canary Islands.

That said, flooding and mudslides are expected as there are high mountains on Cape Verde
0 likes   

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#191 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:33 am

I'm pretty sure it's La Palma in the canaries that has been earmarked for causing a mega tsunami if there is a landslide into the Atlantic.... Could be wrong

otowntiger wrote:Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#192 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:34 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like a rough day on the beach, those people have no business being out there but it's probably quite the spectacle.

Image


They probably don't have much experience with hurricane preparation, but I agree they shouldn't be on the beach!
0 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5674
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#193 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:40 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like a rough day on the beach, those people have no business being out there but it's probably quite the spectacle.

Image


They probably don't have much experience with hurricane preparation, but I agree they shouldn't be on the beach!


Oh...that is not good. Not good at all..
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#194 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:42 am

Image

close up
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1787
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#195 Postby otowntiger » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:52 am

Alyono wrote:
otowntiger wrote:Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.


That's the Canary Islands.

ok, thanks. I knew I hadn't dreamed that, but I was wrong on my geography. :oops: But it does sound like mudslides in general could be a huge local concern given the copious rainfall they are receiving and especially since this is so unusual for that area.

That said, flooding and mudslides are expected as there are high mountains on Cape Verde
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#196 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:55 am

HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

Visible satellite pictures and earlier microwave data indicate
that Fred has a well-defined inner core. The outer banding that
was noted yesterday is no longer evident, and the hurricane is quite
compact. A well-defined eye was evident in both a 0904 UTC
SSMIS and 1121 UTC AMSU microwave overpasses. The initial intensity
is raised to 75 kt, which is between the latest objective and
subjective satellite estimates from UW/CIMSS and TAFB, respectively.
Satellite data suggest that the eye of Fred passed just southwest of
Boa Vista Island in the Cape Verde Islands, however the northeastern
eyewall likely moved over a portion of that island just before 1200
UTC this morning.

The sea surface temperatures along the path of Fred are beginning
to decrease, however, the vertical shear is expected to remain quite
low for another 12 hours or so. Little change in strength is
expected today. By Tuesday, Fred will be over SSTS of around 26C
and southwesterly shear is forecast to increase. This should cause
gradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more
stable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours.
The tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression
in about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

Fred continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. The hurricane
should maintain a northwestward heading during the next 12 to 24
hours. During this time, the center of Fred is expected to pass over
or very close to the northwestern Cape Verde Islands of Sao Nicolou,
Santa Luzuia, Sao Vicente, and Sao Antao. On Tuesday, a west-
northwestward turn is predicted as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. Fred should then maintain a
west-northwestward heading during the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC track remains on the south side of the guidance
envelope, in best agreement with a consensus of the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which
begins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape
Verde Islands since 1892. We caution, however, that the database is
less reliable prior to the satellite era (mid 1960s onward).

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.4N 23.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.3N 25.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 20.3N 30.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 21.4N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 22.5N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 24.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
Hylian Auree
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 150
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:01 pm
Location: Willemstad, Curaçao
Contact:

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#197 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:57 am

Live blog from Cape Verde, albeit in Portuguese

In a nutshell: Boa Vista is bearing the brunt, with reports of downed trees and ripped-off roofs. Two residents were taken to the hospital after the wall of their house collapsed, but fortunately they are doing fine. A large part of the island is currently without power and cellphone service. Other islands, such as Santiago and Sal, are experiencing squally conditions and some flooding, but no reports of significant damage (yet).
0 likes   

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

#198 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:16 am

I've just spoken with my friend (She is in Santa Maria, Sol) to get an update.... The hotel is flooded on the ground floor so the few people who were trying to stay downstairs thru Fred have all now moved upto the 2nd floor. They have had word from some of the locals that there is flooding and damage to the waterfront but that was to be expected under the circumstances.
There were People down at the beach a couple of hours ago to watch what was happening or who knows what.... crazy if you ask me.

Power did go out for around 40 mins but they have it back again.... for how long who knows.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#199 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:52 am

the brunt may miss the most populated islands to the NW. Instead, this is hitting the less populated islands. It also is very small, so unless there is a direct hit, there are going to be minor wind impacts
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: FRED- Hurricane - Discussion

#200 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:01 am

Looks like Santa Maria took a hard-side hit.



Next stop, Santa Antao. Ponta Do Sol.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests