ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
hurricanehunter69
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 330
Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 5:21 pm
Location: New Orleans

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#221 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:46 pm

Checkin out this water vapor loop...you can see Grace mixing out the dry air. Grace appears to be in an improved thermodynamic environment. It may be able to score at least another 24 hours of ace. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4665
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#222 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:59 am

The Atlantic continues to be Graced with continued convection.....
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#223 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:19 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

...GRACE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 41.0W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#224 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:51 am

Grace recap...

08/0545 UTC 14.0N 39.4W T1.0/2.0 GRACE
07/2345 UTC 13.9N 38.4W T1.0/2.0 GRACE
07/1745 UTC 14.1N 36.7W T2.0/3.0 GRACE
07/1145 UTC 13.8N 35.0W T2.5/3.0 GRACE
07/0545 UTC 13.4N 33.2W T3.0/3.0 GRACE
06/2345 UTC 13.2N 31.8W T3.0/3.0 GRACE
06/1745 UTC 13.2N 30.5W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
06/1145 UTC 12.7N 29.3W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
06/0545 UTC 12.6N 28.0W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
05/2345 UTC 12.6N 26.7W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
05/1745 UTC 12.4N 25.8W T2.5/2.5 07L
05/1145 UTC 12.3N 24.6W T2.5/2.5 91L
05/0545 UTC 11.6N 22.8W T1.5/1.5 91L
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#225 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:48 am

An ASCAT pass at 00Z indicated sub-TS winds for Grace. It has likely been a depression overnight. Nothing to indicate it's a TS this morning. There may not be much left of grace by the time it reaches the NE Caribbean.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#226 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:55 am

This may be the best example yet of what happens during an El Nino season.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#227 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

After the overnight burst of deep convection, thunderstorm activity
has diminished and the overall cloud pattern remains disorganized.
Data from a recent ASCAT overpass show that Grace's maximum winds
have decreased to near 30 kt, so the system is being downgraded to
a tropical depression on this advisory. The cyclone is forecast
to move through an environment of increasing vertical shear and dry
mid-level air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors
should cause the system to weaken further, and to degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area over the next day or two. The
official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is
slightly below the latest intensity model consensus. It is
possible that Grace could open up into a wave during the next few
days, as indicated by the global models.

The cyclone continues to move westward at a fairly rapid pace, with
the motion estimate remaining at 275/17 kt. The steering pattern
is expected to remain uncomplicated. Grace or its remnant should
continue to move west or slightly north of west, to the south of
a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge throughout the forecast
period. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.3N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 14.8N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 15.3N 52.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 16.6N 62.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#228 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:13 am

She had some really good convection towards the center overnight but again this morning got blown off by shear

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#229 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 08, 2015 11:24 am

Probably what it will do up until it Danny's.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#230 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:27 pm

Re-burst right on time.


Obviously doing big fluxes between dry air and recovery.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#231 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:46 pm

Saved loop, showing another impressive burst with extremely cold cloud tops, notice the little area of black color showing within the red (high tower). Shear seems to have slackened some at least for now allowing the convection to stay close to the LLC:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#232 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:58 pm

ASCAT shows this is barely closed at the moment and will probably open up to a wave with the next convective collapse.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#233 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:22 pm

Pretty strong vorticity still though, doesn't resemble a wave yet:

Image
0 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 524
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm
Location: Emerald Isle NC

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#234 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:26 pm

A decent flare up!
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1167
Age: 48
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter, FL

#235 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:29 pm

Grace says: "I'm not dead yet." LOL. But seems to be just a matter of time with this one, based on everything I'm reading/seeing.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#236 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:33 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

A new burst of deep convection has occurred over the southern
semicircle but, like the previous one, it lacks any banding
features. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is a blend
of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Grace could
continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next
day or two. However, it will be moving through an environment of
increasing vertical shear and dry mid-level air over the next
several days. This should cause weakening, and the system is likely
to become a remnant low in 36 hours if not sooner. There is also
the possibility of the cyclone opening up into a wave during the
forecast period, which is what the GFS and ECMWF models have been
depicting in their recent runs. The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus IVCN.

The initial motion continues westward, or 275/16 kt. No changes
are evident in the steering scenario for the next 3 days. A low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to provide a brisk
easterly steering current for Grace or its remnants. The
dynamical track guidance has been in very close agreement for the
past couple of days. The official forecast is close to the
dynamical model consensus and is basically and update of the
previous one.

The center of Grace should pass very near NOAA data buoy 41041 in a
couple of hours, which should provide useful data about the tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.5N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 16.8N 63.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#237 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:52 pm

Islanders don't let your guard down. I advice you to monitor carefully Grace.
We know what happened with a small TS Erika the last 15 days... so even if it's an sheared TD or an open sheared twave
... this could bring very nice amount of water.
So don't be focus on Grace sheared apparence, but let's see what could really happens with Grace in case of.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#238 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:06 pm

Gustywind wrote:Islanders don't let your guard down. I advice you to monitor carefully Grace.
We know what happened with a small TS Erika the last 15 days... so even if it's an sheared TD or an open sheared twave
... this could bring very nice amount of water.
So don't be focus on Grace sheared apparence, but let's see what could really happens with Grace in case of.


Very good advice my friend.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Re:

#239 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Islanders don't let your guard down. I advice you to monitor carefully Grace.
We know what happened with a small TS Erika the last 15 days... so even if it's an sheared TD or an open sheared twave
... this could bring very nice amount of water.
So don't be focus on Grace sheared apparence, but let's see what could really happens with Grace in case of.


Very good advice my friend.

Cycloneye... is always our Superman el talento de nuestra carib :) casa! Bueno... i like this type of reply.

Be sure about that, the big mistake is there : let our guard down guy! As this season seems very unpredictable again again i advice all the carib islanders to continue to monitor very closely the situation. Those who live in the islands, you know really know what could happen! Please take care my friends and be vigilant Grace is not so far from the islands.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#240 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:08 pm

She is still alive.

As of 00:00 UTC Sep 09, 2015:


Location: 14.5°N 45.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests