ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[LarryWx]

By THU, models suggest the most active part of the Gulf convectionwise would be NE Gulf fwiw (i.e., not from 94L). So, IF 94L is going to become a TC (very low chance imo), it would seemingly need to do it by Tue.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%-30%

Shower activity remains disorganized in association with an area of
low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development of this low during the next couple of days while it
moves little. After a couple of days, a slow west-northwestward
motion toward Mexico is expected and land interaction should limit
development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[NDG]

I doubt the recon will be flown into this weak disturbance, it appears it doesn't have a well defined closed circulation, if at all, shear continues to push the convection east of the vorticity.

[cycloneye]

No Recon.

Shower activity has changed little in association with an area of
low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves little. After a couple of days, a slow
west-northwestward motion toward Mexico is expected and land
interaction should limit development. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft originally scheduled to investigate the
system Monday afternoon has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

Widespread cloudiness and shower activity continues over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with an area of surface
low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or two while it moves little. After a
couple of days, a slow westward or west-northwestward motion toward
Mexico is expected development will become less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[NDG]

94L looks to have gotten a little better organized this afternoon per latest ASCAT, it is still having some tough time with the windshear.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible before
it moves inland over Mexico in a day or so. Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rain over
portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[gatorcane]

You can see the low-level swirl just off the coast of Mexico around 22N, 97W but the shear continues to wreak havoc.

[1900hurricane]

No kidding, watch the pop-up thunderstorms over Mexico mature and have their anvils ripped east. Easy way to see the shear right there.

[drezee]

This thing just popped....looks like an early Gabrielle...Or TD 6 from the same year 95

[northjaxpro]

Convection really has become a bit.more concentrated near the low level swirl early this morning. Shear was ridiculously high yesterday. Observing at how the convection is snuggled.closer to the LLC this morning, I wonder has the shear slackened just a bit. I have not yet looked at the shear analysis this morning, however looking at the convection bloosoming around 94L right now, you can certainly see that the environment seems a tad different than yesterday down there imo. This may have a chance to br a TD or minimal TS before landfalling on the Northern Mexico coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, pretty apparent the shear has slackened a bit. By the eyeballs I'd say around 15kts.

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 0/0.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has moved
inland near Tampico, Mexico. Although tropical cyclone development
is no longer expected due to land interaction, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over portions of eastern Mexico during the
next couple of days as the system moves farther inland. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[Sanibel]

Finally something in the Gulf was making a run at it.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I know seems like thankfully El Nino is squashing things this year

[Weatherwatcher98]

Still thinking something may get going east of this Blob

[Dean4Storms]

Surprised they dropped this altogether with all the convection and the apparent mid level rotation still evident to the East. Anyone notice the LL spin that has moved NW toward the TX/MX border area?

[xironman]

There is a bit of mid-level spin offshore, nothing at the surface.

[Hurricaneman]

might be something to keep an eye on if the shear shall slacken might even relocate under the MLC in that case

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[NDG]

might be something to keep an eye on if the shear shall slacken might even relocate under the MLC in that case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not if the surface trough is way to the west along the Mexican coast a low pressure will form under the MLC, most likely the MLC will die out during the night.