WPAC: KROVANH - Post-Tropical

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Extratropical94
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#21 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:27 pm

Looking healthy with nice outflow, especially in the western part of the depression.

Image
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#22 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:53 pm

It's still lopsided though. The center is near the very SE edge of the convection.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 3:30 pm

Image

20th TC of the season and forecast to become a Category 3...

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 151.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 151.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.0N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.8N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.6N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.6N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.7N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.8N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 29.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 151.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 20W - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:16 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 20W HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A DEPRESSION
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AS A FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 141620Z SSMI PASS, WHICH SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 20W LIES SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED TO
THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE NEAR-TERM WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNFAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES
AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU
72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 20W WILL TURN POLEWARD AROUND THE
STEERING RIDGE AXIS. STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN, BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER SHOULD PRODUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
INITIATE THE EARLY STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF THE
TURN AROUND OR JUST AFTER TAU 72, BUT ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK FOLLOWING THE TURN. ONE
GROUPING OF MODELS, INCLUDING GFS AND HWRF, PREDICTS A TIGHTER TURN
INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ANOTHER GROUPING, INCLUDING THE
UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS, PREDICTS A WIDER TURN TO THE WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE WESTERN GROUPING GIVEN A WESTWARD
SHIFT IN MODEL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. GIVEN
MODEL FORECAST SPREAD, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS
LOW.//
NNNN
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#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:55 pm

The circulation based on visible imagery looks somewhat elongated WNW-ESE. There's even a small mesovortex near the eastern end (not the main center according to microwave, which has been west of 152*E since at least 2126Z). 20W still really needs convection on the eastern side of the storm.

Image

Image

*EDIT: partial ASCAT pass supports elongated center.

Image

*EDIT: fixing the image since upgrading to a named storm changes the image URL.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 20W - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:58 am

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418
NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC.
A 150358Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI,
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 20W
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND FAIR OUTFLOW. TD 20W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
PERSISTS. AFTER TAU 36, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 20W WILL ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU
120. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE
TURN, BUT INCREASING VWS AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND INITIATE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF THE TURN AROUND TAU 72; HOWEVER, DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND THE SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE TRACKERS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 20W - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:11 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150913
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202015
800 PM CHST TUE SEP 15 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN CNMI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 150.2E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 285 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 485 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
150.2 EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TD 20W IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM LATER THIS EVENING...THEN FOLLOW BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: 20W - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:26 am

TPPN11 PGTW 150916

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (NE OF GUAM)

B. 15/0832Z

C. 18.13N

D. 150.39E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 2.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/0358Z 18.12N 150.90E MMHS


UEHARA
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2015 2:11 pm

TS 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 15 September 2015


<Analyses at 15/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50'(18.8°)
E149°30'(149.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°)
E145°40'(145.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E142°50'(142.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°50'(25.8°)
E142°00'(142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
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#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 2:11 pm

Now named Tropical Storm Krovanh.

*EDIT: removed duplicate advisory.
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#31 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 2:28 pm

Looking considerably better at the moment. The convection might still be biased west a little bit compared to the center, but at least the circulation is no longer elongated or half-exposed.

Image

Image
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#32 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:18 pm

I missed this from earlier, but an ISS RSCAT pass from about six hours ago had several 40 kt barbs and even a couple of 45 kt barbs in the convection west of the center.

Image

I also really like the outflow channel to the north. Assuming it can keep away from the subsidence to its east that was plaguing it earlier (not necessarily a given), Krovanh could be a rapid-intensification candidate once it forms a solid inner core.

*EDIT: to fix image.
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#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:27 pm

Krovanh's structure continues to evolve. Curved banding is now nicely wrapping around and into the center, as revealed by a 2151Z GPM pass. Convection looks like it might be a little south-biased, but it's evolving nicely.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:59 pm

This has the look of a future super typhoon

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Re:

#35 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:01 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Krovanh's structure continues to evolve. Curved banding is now nicely wrapping around and into the center, as revealed by a 2151Z GPM pass. Convection looks like it might be a little south-biased, but it's evolving nicely.

Image





That looks like an eye is developing...
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:01 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM EAST
OF PAGAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 151633Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND A
151732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE PREVIOUS STORM POSITION WAS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED ON A HIGHER 151632Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION AND NEW FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTER, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TS 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND PASSAGE ACROSS A WARM SEA SURFACE. BY TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD RAPIDLY
INCREASE, RESULTING IN STEADIER INTENSIFICATION.
C. TS 20W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE TRANSITION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT
NUMBER OF THE EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE RECURVING. HOWEVER, MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY A FEW OF
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST RUN, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:06 pm

Image

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 152138
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202015
800 AM CHST WED SEP 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 20W NOW NAMED KROVANH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN CNMI. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 149.0E

ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 455 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KROVANH
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
149.0 EAST. TS KROVANH IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM KROVANH
IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON SOMETIME THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 PM.

$$

STANKO
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#38 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:17 pm

I might be nerding out a little bit with this high resolution Himawari-8 imagery of Krovanh.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:08 pm

So much possibilities...

EURO makes this a typhoon as it heads away from the CNMI but a little bit more north whereas GFS has a strengthening typhoon over the far northern islands.
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:42 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 19:10:51 N Lon : 148:21:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 987.5mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -67.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.8 degrees
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