ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Alyono
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 26, 2015 11:02 am

The Gulf system

Have to watch the convection east of Belize. If something forms there, it would find slightly more favorable conditions.
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 26, 2015 11:20 am

Saved loop pretty good spin and good blowup of convection east of Belize:

Image

The new GFS develops a 1007MB low east of Belize by hour 18 but then a low north of the Yucatan wins out:

Image
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Re: Invest 99L

#3 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:00 pm

Interesting GFS run. Sheared mess in the Gulf then brushes the Carolina coast and Deepens into New England.
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#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:03 pm

Looks sort of impressive at the moment, but I'm already seeing small signs that most of the convection will be limited only to the North and East sides really.
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Re: Invest 99L

#5 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:32 pm

:uarrow: Yes, the surface low is well inland over the Yucantan while the mid level vorticity developing is already getting sheared away.
30-45 knot shear cover the whole GOM.
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Re: Invest 99L

#6 Postby HeeBGBz » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:33 pm

It looks like she sucked all the life out of 92E as she blossomed there by the Yucatan.
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#7 Postby rockyman » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:43 pm

Code orange

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. Visible satellite images and surface observations indicate that a
low pressure area has formed over the southeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula. This low is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds over portions of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected to
reach the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and should continue to
move northward thereafter while it interacts with an upper-level low
near the Texas coast. During this interaction, there is some
potential for the system to become a tropical cyclone. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf coast and
southeastern United States early next week. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#8 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:43 pm

Wow up to 30/40% now, recon going out tomorrow possibly, lol.
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Re: Invest 99L

#9 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:45 pm

HeeBGBz wrote:It looks like she sucked all the life out of 92E as she blossomed there by the Yucatan.


Yeah, as if 92E is rotating around into 99L
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Re: Invest 99L

#10 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:54 pm

I dunno. Almost looks like a tropical depression now. The ULL in the western GOM is acting to ventilate the system. As I said earlier as did Alyono, if the center can stay on the east side of the Yucatan it stands a better chance of developing - which right now appears to be happening.
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Re: Invest 99L

#11 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Sep 26, 2015 1:18 pm

Physical obs: Considerable amount of high-level cloudiness beginning to overspread the coast and the humidity levels are increasing. That's not surprising since the PWATs are about to surge above 2 inches by Monday morning. Broken cloud deck at the mid levels. I can't say there's much in the way of low-level clouds, but it's going to take some time for the PWATS to saturate the atmosphere.

Still think this is a big rain event with some minor coastal flooding and possible erosion. Time will tell.
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Re: Invest 99L

#12 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 26, 2015 1:39 pm

ronjon wrote:I dunno. Almost looks like a tropical depression now. The ULL in the western GOM is acting to ventilate the system. As I said earlier as did Alyono, if the center can stay on the east side of the Yucatan it stands a better chance of developing - which right now appears to be happening.
that had been my point to,.if it stays further east, the ull may.help to vent it. Despite some members protests and claims otherwise, this type of set up is common for this time of year. Not saying it will happen but needs to be monitored and not discounted.
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Steve
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#13 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 26, 2015 1:52 pm

Cool looking system developing in a complex pattern in the Gulf. Don't know but I'd guess based on all the curls around the western basin that there is some minor mjo influence. 99 looks like many of the other systems this year. If it follows other systems we've seen, look for maybe a pretty cool swirl with displaced convection intermittent with new building over top. I think structurally it could get there but I'm not sure wind speeds can get to TS.
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:13 pm

The ECMWF has shifted to the right and turns the system NE into Florida north of Tampa, though not strong, there is more vorticity showing in this run than the previous run. Three frames showing the north then NE turn:

Image
Image
Image
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:19 pm

Saved loop, very clear where the LLC is. Look just north of Belize over the extreme SE area of the Yucatan. Looks to be drifting NNE:

Image

Vorticity on the increase (image is behind latest SAT loop):

Image
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Re:

#16 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:23 pm

NNE?


gatorcane wrote:Saved loop, very clear where the LLC is. Look just north of Belize over the extreme SE area of the Yucatan. Looks to be drifting NNE:

Image

Vorticity on the increase (image is behind latest SAT loop):

Image
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Re: Invest 99L

#17 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:25 pm

Some have to remember that looks are deceiving, first of all surface reports show that there's nothing close to a TD and or LLC, nothing but a broad surface cyclonic circulation over the Yucatan.
You can already see the convection get blown off NE due to the shear.

Image
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#18 Postby TJRE » Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:26 pm

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#19 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:44 pm

12z ECM keeps spitting out lows clear thru Wed. Weird run!
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#20 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:53 pm

Pretty good consensus on model tracks.

Image
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