EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical
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- Extratropical94
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an
area of low pressure located about 850 miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this
weekend while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an
area of low pressure located about 850 miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this
weekend while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form later this week or this weekend while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form later this week or this weekend while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
It took it's time but is about to go boom.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 925 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula are beginning to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next couple of days while this system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 925 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula are beginning to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next couple of days while this system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142552
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have increased and become better
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
tonight or on Thursday while this system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have increased and become better
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
tonight or on Thursday while this system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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- Yellow Evan
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
SHIPS/LGEM forecast a major, with the LGEM calling for a mid-grade Cat 4. The GFS and ECMWF depict excellent poleward and eqautorword outflow channels, which should favor RI. HWRf/GFDL intensify this somewhat slowly over the next 36-48 hours, but given it's great structure and outflow already, I see little reason that it won't intensify at 1 T number per day for the net 3-4 days. In 5 days about, the window for deepening will likely close, as south-southwesterly wind shear may keep this in check as the storm re-curves out to sea.
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- Yellow Evan
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized. The cloud pattern
consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central
dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from
earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become
better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a
tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North
Pacific season. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following
a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data.
The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A general westward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens. After that
time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level
trough. The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official
track forecast lies near the consensus aids.
Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should
allow the system to strengthen during the next several days. The
SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the
system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued
intensification thereafter. The official forecast is less
aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression
to strengthen steadily for the next few days. This forecast is
between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower
than the intensity model consensus. It is interesting to note that
the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening
significantly toward the end of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 9.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized. The cloud pattern
consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central
dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from
earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become
better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a
tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North
Pacific season. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following
a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data.
The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A general westward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens. After that
time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level
trough. The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official
track forecast lies near the consensus aids.
Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should
allow the system to strengthen during the next several days. The
SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the
system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued
intensification thereafter. The official forecast is less
aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression
to strengthen steadily for the next few days. This forecast is
between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower
than the intensity model consensus. It is interesting to note that
the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening
significantly toward the end of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 9.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16050
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16050
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression
Look at how high these outputs are:
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 10/14/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 74 84 93 100 108 111
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 74 84 93 100 108 111
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 43 54 68 87 108 127 136 136
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 4 4 3 1 4 5 7 11 13 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 3 1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -3 -4 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 20 13 18 15 52 84 200 67 84 41 23 9 8
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 161 158 156 159 163 165 165 161 158 158
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 63 63 62 63 66 70 73 75 76 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 19 22 27 30
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -7 -5 -10 2 27 44 67 83 90 77 63
200 MB DIV 41 36 38 47 36 31 44 44 58 76 88 160 185
700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 3 4 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -1
LAND (KM) 1231 1347 1466 1552 1656 1898 2121 2361 2583 2605 2499 2438 2415
LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.7 9.1
LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.8 115.5 117.3 119.1 122.5 125.7 128.6 131.0 133.0 134.4 135.1 135.1
STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 6 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 30 57 67 58 39 39 24 18 19 19 20 19 18
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 10/14/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 40 52 65 77 87 95 104 107 111
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 40 52 65 77 87 95 104 107 111
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 43 55 71 91 113 129 134 132
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 5 5 9 12 14 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -9
SHEAR DIR 12 12 14 45 66 114 50 70 48 33 16 13 349
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 158 156 157 159 164 165 164 160 159 160
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 63 63 63 67 69 72 74 76 78 80
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 16 20 24 27 31
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -9 -5 -8 -3 7 28 43 61 70 68 59 53
200 MB DIV 44 49 58 47 32 47 56 74 88 88 100 158 181
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 3 2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 1368 1495 1571 1663 1767 1998 2211 2432 2654 2597 2508 2468 2434
LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.0 9.5 9.1 8.8 9.0 9.8
LONG(DEG W) 113.6 115.4 117.1 118.7 120.4 123.6 126.6 129.2 131.5 133.2 134.3 134.6 134.5
STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 7 3 2 4
HEAT CONTENT 56 65 59 45 43 33 29 22 19 20 20 18 17
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 10/14/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 58 70 82 91 98 100 103 108
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 58 70 82 91 98 100 103 108
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 55 72 93 111 121 124 126
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 4 2 5 6 10 12 22 16 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 -2 -5 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -6 -7
SHEAR DIR 10 19 38 69 81 43 8 37 10 12 9 3 331
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 156 156 158 161 166 165 162 159 161 161
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 64 63 65 67 68 71 74 77 80 82
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 20 24 25 27 31
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 -3 0 5 19 28 44 66 68 62 45 53
200 MB DIV 56 76 65 45 43 50 53 75 81 108 132 136 116
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 0
LAND (KM) 1514 1601 1682 1785 1898 2112 2343 2565 2715 2597 2537 2508 2437
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.8 10.1
LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.9 118.6 120.2 121.8 124.8 127.6 130.1 132.2 133.6 134.3 134.3 134.3
STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 9 6 2 4 6
HEAT CONTENT 64 60 48 41 42 34 31 21 21 21 21 20 17
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 22. 25. 30.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 33. 45. 57. 66. 73. 75. 78. 83.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 10/15/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 52 65 77 88 95 101 104 107 107
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 52 65 77 88 95 101 104 107 107
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 47 60 77 97 115 124 127 126 123
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 8 9 3 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 9 24 55 69 63 33 43 11 349 345 343 276 210
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 155 155 157 159 162 163 163 162 159 157
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 66 67 70 70 71 73 74 75 71 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 18 22 27 29 32 35
850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 1 4 6 11 17 29 37 41 73 82 102
200 MB DIV 81 62 43 51 56 64 89 90 136 159 180 150 123
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 5
LAND (KM) 1630 1720 1819 1914 2014 2168 2285 2401 2511 2588 2502 2332 2163
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 117.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 59 47 39 38 40 41 37 24 19 19 18 18 17
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 25. 29. 33. 35.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 35. 47. 58. 65. 71. 74. 77. 77.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/15/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
Alyono wrote:MU now brings this to Hawaii. Looks to be a question as to whether or not the trough near 140W catches this
It has been windshield wiping the past few days. Seems like after the initial trough that catches it, the question remains whether the high builds back and remains in place.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past several hours. A large area of convection remains near the
center, with some banding features noted in the northwestern
quadrant. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in
agreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data.
The large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening
over the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and
moist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path. Thus
strengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and
the official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid
intensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few
days if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are
showing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame.
Although a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in
the eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have
peaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario
should be mentioned.
A pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression
was a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested,
although the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt.
This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still
expected for the system during the next couple of days while the
subtropical ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time,
the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a
weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model
guidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward
adjustment to account for the initial position change.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 9.9N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 9.9N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past several hours. A large area of convection remains near the
center, with some banding features noted in the northwestern
quadrant. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in
agreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data.
The large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening
over the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and
moist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path. Thus
strengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and
the official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid
intensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few
days if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are
showing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame.
Although a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in
the eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have
peaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario
should be mentioned.
A pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression
was a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested,
although the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt.
This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still
expected for the system during the next couple of days while the
subtropical ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time,
the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a
weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model
guidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward
adjustment to account for the initial position change.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 9.9N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 9.9N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Yellow Evan
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So this should be another long tracker? ACE is needed to beat 1990, about 30 units
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 151448
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's cloud pattern has changed little
during the past 6-12 hours and consists of a persistent cluster of
deep convection near the low-level center and a lengthening band
extending to the north and northeast. The maximum winds remain 30
kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Although
the depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical shear, very
warm waters, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification
throughout the five-day forecast period. As such, the NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and shows
the depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days.
The intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees,
and the official forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
through 48 hours but then is a little higher (close to the SHIPS
and LGEM models) on days 3 through 5.
The low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the
depression appears to be moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An
elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain north of the
depression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected
to weaken through the weekend as broad troughing develops west of
the Baja California peninsula. This pattern change should cause the
cyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3
and northwestward by day 5. With the exception of the UKMET model,
which does not show a northwestward turn by day 5, the remainder of
the track models are tightly clustered. The updated NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus and essentially
unchanged from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 10.2N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTPZ44 KNHC 151448
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's cloud pattern has changed little
during the past 6-12 hours and consists of a persistent cluster of
deep convection near the low-level center and a lengthening band
extending to the north and northeast. The maximum winds remain 30
kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Although
the depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical shear, very
warm waters, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification
throughout the five-day forecast period. As such, the NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and shows
the depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days.
The intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees,
and the official forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
through 48 hours but then is a little higher (close to the SHIPS
and LGEM models) on days 3 through 5.
The low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the
depression appears to be moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An
elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain north of the
depression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected
to weaken through the weekend as broad troughing develops west of
the Baja California peninsula. This pattern change should cause the
cyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3
and northwestward by day 5. With the exception of the UKMET model,
which does not show a northwestward turn by day 5, the remainder of
the track models are tightly clustered. The updated NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus and essentially
unchanged from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 10.2N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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- Kingarabian
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- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re:
Ntxw wrote:So this should be another long tracker? ACE is needed to beat 1990, about 30 units
Navy and CMC keep it weak and take it all the way to the CPAC.
Euro and GFS continue to blow it up in the medium range while they differ track. GFS tracks thus far have been promising in terms of ACE.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16050
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16050
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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