WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 14, 2015 9:07 pm

I wonder if this is one of the cases where the GFS overestimates in the intensity forecast with a 900mb cyclone..there is deep convection popping at the moment but it still looks badly sheared.
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 14, 2015 9:33 pm

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#83 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:08 pm

Well, once the center went back under the convection, it didn't take long for Koppu to start organizing quickly, much like Dujuan before it. Global models are generally good at picking up on favorable conditions, but aren't really capable of picking up on tropical cyclone nuances like the process of building an inner core. However, with Koppu appearing to be building a core now, I'd still side with the more aggressive guidance in terms of intensity. Even if it doesn't bomb out, this could still be a big deal because of rainfall and flooding due to slow movement near/over Luzon, as Alyono already stated.

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:13 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY THE STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TS 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS VWS SLOWLY BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH
THE STORM MOTION. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, SSTS AND OHC ALONG TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 24W WILL SLOW AND TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN LUZON.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH TAU 72.
HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:50 pm

Huge flooding likely. +250mm of rain over a large portion of Luzon.

EURO stalls this over Luzon for 3 days while UKMET is 5 days!

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 15, 2015 1:27 am

Looks like the convection is inching closer to the LLCC
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:03 am

Starting to get that look...

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#88 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:37 am

microwave is showing an eye. I am going with 55 kts for the intensity
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:38 am

It's intensifying alright...

It's got that feathery outflow starting to develop that will help it to ventilate...
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:48 am

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS GOOD CLOUD
BANDING WHICH WRAPS INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. A 150530Z NPP IMAGE SHOWS
THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WHICH GIVES GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT
50 KNOTS, REFLECTIVE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VWS BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TS 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR EXTENSION, WITH THE STR ANCHORED
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR EXTENSION AND A BUILDING
EXTENSION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS VWS CONTINUES TO BECOME IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION.
THE SYSTEM WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS SST
VALUES WILL PEAK. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO TAU 72, TS KOPPU WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN LUZON, WITH THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY DECAYING DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 24W WILL SLOW AND TURN MORE
POLEWARD DUE TO A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THE SYSTEM
THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS A GREAT SPREAD WITH REGARD TO
THE SPEED OF THE POLEWARD TURN. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 6:07 am

TXPQ26 KNES 150943
TCSWNP

A. 24W (KOPPU)

B. 15/0901Z

C. 15.6N

D. 129.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .8 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. CENTER FIX LOCATION BASED ON ADT. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/0306Z 15.6N 130.9E GMI


...VELASCO
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#92 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:26 am

First attempt to build a core failed, putting it behind schedule intensity wise. I still think it'll get strong, but it only has about 48 hours left now.

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:33 am

No storm signals yet posted by PAGASA for Lando (aka Koppu). 12Z updates from JMA and 15Z from JTWC both have Koppu at 60kt:

WTPQ50 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 15.4N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 16.1N 125.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 171200UTC 16.4N 122.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 181200UTC 16.4N 120.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 191200UTC 17.0N 120.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 201200UTC 17.9N 120.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =

WTPN51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151015132935
2015101512 24W KOPPU 011 02 275 13 SATL 060
T000 158N 1289E 060 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 160N 1270E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 162N 1255E 085 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 164N 1242E 095 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 165N 1230E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 168N 1215E 075
T096 180N 1214E 065
T120 194N 1218E 055
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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#94 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:49 am

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. THE
151235Z METOP-A SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM AND INDICATIONS OF TIGHT
LOW LEVEL WRAPPING. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGREY. ADDITIONALLY, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH 20
KNOTS OF IN-PHASE VWS BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TS
24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR EXTENSION, WITH THE STR ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR EXTENSION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE EXTENSION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AS VWS CONTINUES TO BECOME IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM
MOTION IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SSTS ALONG THE SYSTEMS TRACK.
EXPECT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48. BEYOND THAT, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND BEGIN DECAYING IN CENTRAL LUZON.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 24W WILL SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD
DUE TO A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THE SYSTEM THOUGH TAU 96 AND
TS KOPPU RE-EMERGING IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER THERE IS A GREAT
SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE SPEED OF THE POLEWARD TURN. AS SUCH, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS./=

WTPH21 RPMM 151200
TTT STORM WARNING 06
STS {KOPPU} (1524) TIME 151200 UTC
00 15.6N 129.0E 982HPA 29M/S
P06HR W AT 04M/S
P+24 16.0N 125.4E
P+48 16.7N 122.7E
P+72 17.7N 121.1E
P+96 19.4N 120.4E
P+120 21.2N 120.3E=
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#95 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:50 am

JMA is way more aggressive than JTWC right now wrt intensity. They're both currently at 100 kt at 12Z on the 17th, but JMA's 100 kt equates to a T6.5 on their Dvorak table, which would equate to 125 kt using 1 minute sustained winds.
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:57 am

I'm thinking if this can only manage to strengthen at a climatological rate then it may fall quite short to the major Cat3 forecast of JTWC. Just a little trivia, the last major Cat3+ system to hit Northern Luzon was Typhoon Utor in 2013.


EDIT: My bad, it was actually Noul last May. :lol: Thanks for the correction.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#97 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:03 am

What about Noul from this past May?

Looks like it shall try to build a core once again.

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Re:

#98 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:08 am

My bad Noul was just a few months ago and I already forgot. :lol:
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#99 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:11 am

Jeez it's like the storms in WPAC are on steroids..just look at the amount of convection these two are spewing. :eek:
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#100 Postby NotoSans » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:50 am

JMA brings it to TY at 15Z. Their forecast is quite aggressive - 25-kt RI in the upcoming 24 hours.

WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1524 KOPPU (1524) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 15.3N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 16.1N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 171200UTC 16.4N 122.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 181200UTC 16.4N 120.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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