Arabian Sea: MEGH - Post-Tropical

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NotoSans
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#21 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:46 am

An eye seems to have popped out on IR imagery.
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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:51 am

Def a hurricane now. I'd say this is around 70 knots based on microwave de4spite T numbers of 3.0 from IMD, SAB, and JTWC.
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#23 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:00 am

and IMD says this is only a T 2.5.

I'd like to know what they are seeing to say that. I had 50 kts at 3Z. Thinking 60 kts at 9Z
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Cyclonic Storm

#24 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:45 am

India Meteorological Department 11:30 AM IST November 7 2015

Vortex (MEGH) over west central Arabian Sea centered near 12.7N 59.2E. Dvorak Intensity: T3.0. Central dense overcast pattern.

TC ADVISORY
DTG:20151107/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: MEGH
NR:09
PSN: N1242 E05912
MOV: WSW 08KT
C: 0994HPA
MAX WIND :45KT

RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20151107/1500Z
TOO: 071330HRS IST
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#25 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:16 am

I'd highly discount the IMD info. That is not a T 3.0. You CANNOT have a T 3.0 with a well defined eye.

Now that said, I have managed to make myself look utterly dumb with this one. So much so that I had to issue a special advisory merely 2 hours after issuing the last one
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Cyclonic Storm

#26 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:32 am

JTWC only with 60 kt with the apparant eye on IR.

WTIO31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 59.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 59.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.7N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.4N 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.4N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.3N 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.1N 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.4N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 58.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTH
OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW IS ALSO APPARENT IN THIS
NEAR-MIDGET-SIZED CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY, A 070611Z ASCAT IMAGE
PROVIDES FURTHER FIDELITY TO THE CURRENT POSITION AND AIDS IN THE
JUSTIFICATION TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 60 KNOTS,
DESPITE LOWER DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN
HIGH AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST KEEPING TC 05A ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS
LIFECYCLE. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM
PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. WHILE THE ISLAND OF SOCOTRA WILL HAVE
SOME AFFECT OF TC MEGH’S ABILITY TO INTENSIFY, THE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WILL TRULY START THE DECAY
OF THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO SOME COLD MOATS OF WATER IN THE GULF OF
ADEN IN THE WAKE OF TC 04A. JUST BEYOND TAU 72 TC 05A WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN YEMEN AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATE, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY
TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z,
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Cyclonic Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:26 am

Dvorak from PGTW and KNES in at 4.0...I'm sensing a cyclone upgrade from JTWC soon...
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#28 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:50 am

I ended up going 75 kts in a special
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#29 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:36 am

IMD upgrades it to a severe cyclonic storm at 09Z. MSW estimated at 55 kt with a Dvorak intensity of T3.5.
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#30 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:05 am

NotoSans wrote:IMD upgrades it to a severe cyclonic storm at 09Z. MSW estimated at 55 kt with a Dvorak intensity of T3.5.


Have they seen the eye?
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Cyclonic Storm

#31 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:25 am

India Meteorological Department 17:30 PM IST November 7 2015

Vortex (MEGH) over west central Arabian Sea centered near 12.7N 58.3E. Dvorak intensity: T3.5. Eye patter (ragged eye). Eye is visible both in visible and infrared imagery.
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Cyclonic Storm

#32 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Nov 07, 2015 10:46 am

Grifforzer wrote:India Meteorological Department 17:30 PM IST November 7 2015

Vortex (MEGH) over west central Arabian Sea centered near 12.7N 58.3E. Dvorak intensity: T3.5. Eye patter (ragged eye). Eye is visible both in visible and infrared imagery.


It sounds like they don't know how to use the Dvorak technique

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#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:02 am

Sometimes I feel like SAB is purposely more conservative outside the ATL/EPAC so they match the JTWC's T numbers more.

And IMD can not Dvorak. Eye pattern doesn't start till 4.0, unless they're basing it off of MET (which is dumb). Even PT is like 4.5. Without looking at 15z Dvorak numbers, I'd say this is 85 knots.
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#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:14 am

TXIO22 KNES 071439
TCSNIO

A. 05A (MEGH)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 12.8N

D. 57.9E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=5.0.
6HR AVG DT=4.9. MET=4.0 WITH PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

Turns out I'm not crazy then.
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#35 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:27 am

The mets at IMD don't appear to have a very good handle on tropical cyclones. Dvorak now at 4.5-5.0. This isn't a tropical storm.
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#36 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:47 am

India Meteorological Department 20:30 PM IST November 7 2015

Vortex (MEGH) over west central Arabian Sea has further organized/intensified and now lays centered at 12.7N 57.9E. Dvorak intensity T4.0 RPT 4.0. Eye pattern (ragged eye). Eye is visible in infrared imagery.

at least it will be a very severe cyclonic storm in the next advisory.
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#37 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:54 pm

IMD *finally* upgrades it to a very severe cyclonic storm at 18Z. MSW estimated at 65 kt with a Dvorak intensity of T4.0 (still too low, apparently).
Meanwhile, JTWC bumps it to 90 kt.
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#38 Postby Tom8 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:38 pm

Image
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#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:27 pm

I agree with 90 or 95 kt on that imagery. Where is the IMD's T4.0 coming from? That is definitely a T5.0 with a case possible for T5.5. Given the small size, I would think the pressure is higher than expected - around 970 to 975mb.
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Re: Arabian Sea: MEGH - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#40 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 07, 2015 7:26 pm

Dvorak at 4.5 now from India Meteorological Department..


The following is a copy/paste information from the RSMC advisory it may be slightly re-worded..
At 2:30 AM IST, The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh moved westwards with a speed of 21 km/h during past six hours and intensified further. The system now lays centered over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian sea near 12.7N 56.7E, about 300 km east of Socotra Island (41494) (Yemen), 550 km southeast of Salalah (41316) (Oman) and 1860 km west southwest of Mumbai (43003).

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T4.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over the area between 11.5N to 14.5N and 55.0E to 58.0E. The convection shows eye pattern. The ragged eye is seen in both visible and infrared imagery. Minimum cloud top temperature in wall cloud region is -83C.

sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The winds are higher over the northern sector The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 976 hPa.
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