CPAC: 9-C - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

NAVGEM keeps this in the CPAC where it gets the name Pali and has a hurricane possibly entering the WPAC.



CMC is close either Nepartak or Pali and isn't aggressive as past runs but brings it over Micronesia and close to Guam.

[euro6208]

Interestingly, EURO has a LPA near where 99W is now but doesn't develop anything for the next 10 days until this develops.

[stormwise]

Above 8N is dry sinking air across the basin those easterlies are wicked.

[euro6208]

Looks like GFS has calmed a bit. Has a TS but weakens to a LPA as it enters the WPAC.



Doesn't develop it much.

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion of the Coriolis effect and invest 99W from Chaser Josh.

And now for the weirdest tropical weather story of 2015: We have this peculiar low straddling the equator (black line), a little E of the International Date Line. A couple of days ago, it was centered just S of the equator with distinct *anticyclonic* rotation, and one computer model analyzed winds near 35 knots. It's since inched *above* the equator (to about 1 degree N), and it's still rotating the same way—but now that's called *cyclonic*. This is kind of weird, because conventional wisdom says 1) tropical cyclones can't form at the equator and 2) they have to turn clockwise S of the equator and counterclockwise N of the equator. But this sassy little system is breaking the "rules" and making a mockery of the Coriolis effect—and all we can do is sit here and angrily watch. grin emoticon Yes, this system has abused and disrespected the very notion that a cyclone's rotation is 100% the result of the Coriolis effect, reminding us it's all more complicated than that. Anyhoo, it's expected to move slowly NW and it may develop a little.

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone/?ref=stream

[wxman57]

The Coriolis effect is minimal (to zero) the closer a tropical cyclone is to the Equator. ASCAT indicates a TS with 40kt winds as of late yesterday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Update from JTWC mantains the low probability in next 24 hours.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.0N 178.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.0N 177.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1015 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE, IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST EVENT. A 290345Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. RECENT ASCAT DATA AND LIMITED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD, THERE IS A WIDE DISPARITY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WEST OF THE DATELINE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

GFS back at it again. Has a typhoon long range.

[euro6208]

TXPN27 KNES 291828
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 0.9N

D. 175.7W

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.0N 177.0W
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.0N 175.7W, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SMALL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
A 291316Z GMI IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS PRESENT A MIXED PICTURE REGARDING DEVELOPMENT, BUT GENERALLY
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BECAUSE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS CONSOLIDATING SLOWLY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

The Coriolis effect is minimal (to zero) the closer a tropical cyclone is to the Equator. ASCAT indicates a TS with 40kt winds as of late yesterday afternoon.

What name should it had?

[1900hurricane]

99W and its southern hemisphere twin are certainly looking good right now.

[Yellow Evan]

No love from the CPHC.

[1900hurricane]

I think it's been stated already, but this should be classified.

[stormwise]

Certainly looks a low level structure is in place, will 95P drain it ?

There is two spin ups there on the N side very close to each other right on the convergence , Think neither will amount to much as they climb or become one circulation.

[euro6208]

Upgraded to MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.0N
175.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.1N 175.3W, APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A
300331Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
292054Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS, PRIMARILY, 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS PRESENT A MIXED PICTURE REGARDING
DEVELOPMENT, BUT GENERALLY MAINTAIN A CLOSED LLCC, WHICH TRACKS
ACROSS THE DATELINE IN APPROXIMATELY 60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPN27 KNES 300600
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 30/0530Z

C. 1.2N

D. 175.5W

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .3 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT=1.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

If it forms below the equator AND east of the Dateline, it is still a South Pacific storm (that basin crosses 180), correct?

Why doesn't the Atlantic get storms inside of 5N?

Yes in the SPAC.

what name will this recieve is the question? A CPAC, WPAC, or Fiji name?

The world's most active basin doing it again now teasing us with this last storm.

I'm thinking it might get the CPAC name Pali which is quite a coincidence since the last storm of 1997 also ended with a P in Paka which ravaged Micronesia and the Marianas.

Last or first storm for 2015 or 2016 for the basin and the hemisphere, it's great to watch. Something to keep me distracted from the coming New Years.

[Alyono]

If it forms below the equator AND east of the Dateline, it is still a South Pacific storm (that basin crosses 180), correct?

Why doesn't the Atlantic get storms inside of 5N?

Yes in the SPAC.

what name will this recieve is the question? A CPAC, WPAC, or Fiji name?

The world's most active basin doing it again now teasing us with this last storm.

I'm thinking it might get the CPAC name Pali which is quite a coincidence since the last storm of 1997 also ended with a P in Paka which ravaged Micronesia and the Marianas.

Last or first storm for 2015 or 2016 for the basin and the hemisphere, it's great to watch. Something to keep me distracted from the coming New Years.

you actually believe CPHC will name this?

[1900hurricane]

Considering that JTWC has issued every outlook on this system regardless of which side if the Dateline it has been on, I think they'll end up issuing all advisories on it too. Now, naming is something else entirely, since JTWC isn't an RSMC and it is outside JMA's area of responsibility.