Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5721 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:51 pm

I hope the models flip again. Now it's looking like the Deep South will be either too warm, too dry, or both next week.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5722 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:24 pm

Well the GFS seems to be gradually trending towards more moisture. (and snow in northern Alabama) I wonder if it's too late to trend colder and bring snow further south and east. (It's only 114 hours out. )
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5723 Postby Hammy » Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:04 pm

SeGaBob wrote:Well the GFS seems to be gradually trending towards more moisture. (and snow in northern Alabama) I wonder if it's too late to trend colder and bring snow further south and east. (It's only 114 hours out. )


Personally I think if anything the snow line will nudge north with the next few days of runs. We had several Jan/early Feb snow events show up in the models only to vanish within the 48 hours prior.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5724 Postby timmeister » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:40 am

The GFS keeps teasing us with a southern snow event, only to have it disappear 5 -7 days out. Here's another snow event the GFS is showing for January 23rd and 24th.

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5725 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:26 pm

:uarrow: My oh my would I love to see that come to fruition. That would really be worth a road trip into GA and the Carolinas for me for sure.

It is all about timing. If we can get these southern stream systems to come in and undercut a deep cold air mass, this potential can happen. We shall see.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5726 Postby Hammy » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:16 pm

I'm basically ignoring the GFS at this point, it has let me down too much already (in addition to last winter). The GEM is far more conservative with forecast-period snow events, and the ones within the 5-6 day period last year all happened. It doesn't even show precip at all out of the second system.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5727 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:07 pm

:uarrow: I agree... 12Z and 18Z dropped it.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5728 Postby GTStorm » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:17 pm

timmeister wrote:The GFS keeps teasing us with a southern snow event, only to have it disappear 5 -7 days out. Here's another snow event the GFS is showing for January 23rd and 24th.

Image


yeah right. :roll: not gonna happen. never does. it'll be 10 degrees warmer than what that shows and a bunch of nothing.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5729 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:48 pm

Yeah, the GFS dropped the Deep South winter storm real fast. It just doe not appear to be in the cards for the time being.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5730 Postby timmeister » Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:49 pm

The GFS is all over the place. I think the upgrade was a big failure. The Friday 18Z was a tease again showing snow in the deep south, only to disappear on the Saturday 00Z, 06Z and 12Z. I'm wondering if it will show up again on the Saturday 18Z....

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5731 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:53 am

Well, the strong Low Pressure area just now moving off the coast of the Carolinas this morning, along with just enough cold air damming in place in the NC Piedmont and Southern Appalachiians, is producing light snow this morning in those regions. Light snow is being reported across the mountains of NC, and light snow is being reported in Charlotte and Greensboro NC at this hour. The temp should warm to have the precip change to all rain in Charlotte by noon. No accumulation of snow expected there.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5732 Postby Hammy » Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:48 pm

By the looks of the models (both short term and long) I think it's pretty save bet that nobody in Georgia east of I-85 will see even flurries this winter. :x
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5733 Postby timmeister » Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:35 pm

Every 2 to 4 days, the GFS is showing deep south snow around Jan. 25th thru 27th. The GFS showed snow on the 06Z run on Wednesday the 13th, the 18Z run on Friday the 15th and today on the 06Z run. Waiting to see if any of the GFS runs show snow in the next 6 days.

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5734 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:43 pm

And not one has come remotely close to verifying. Think the count now is gfs- 15 fantasy snows for the deep south and actual reality- 0 :roll:
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5735 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:57 pm

:uarrow: Actually, the NWS WFOs in Birmingham, Atlanta, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC, and Raleigh are now putting snow in their forecasts in their zone regions for later this week into the weekend. A rather potent storm system will organize Friday over the Deep South and move east-northeast to off the Mid Atlantic coast by late Saturday. The latest 18Z GFS has an intesnse 987 mb Gale just off the Virginia/NC coast by 12Z Saturday morning 1/23/16. There is just enough of a colder airmass in behind this system, along with the trailing upper trough axis and wraparound moisture on the backside of this storm system, to produce snow showers in those NWS WFO zones aforementioned above.

The dynamics of this system look very impressive, and look at the partial thicknesses behind this storm, with the 540 thickness line diving all the way deep to the I-4 corridor in Florida. Should this come to fruition, that would be some impressive cold advection deep down into the Florida peninsula for this upcoming weekend.

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5736 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:09 pm

Hammy wrote:By the looks of the models (both short term and long) I think it's pretty save bet that nobody in Georgia east of I-85 will see even flurries this winter. :x


Uh, I think you may have possibly declared this too soon with this statement. The NC mountains and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas east of I-85 may see quite a bit of wintry precip beginning as early as this Friday.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5737 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:05 am

19 degrees here right now. :cold:
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5738 Postby Hammy » Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:03 am

northjaxpro wrote:
Hammy wrote:By the looks of the models (both short term and long) I think it's pretty save bet that nobody in Georgia east of I-85 will see even flurries this winter. :x


Uh, I think you may have possibly declared this too soon with this statement. The NC mountains and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas east of I-85 may see quite a bit of wintry precip beginning as early as this Friday.


I was referring specifically to Georgia. All the models I've seen essentially indicate the weather going up and over. And the cold-bias CFS shows a gradual warming through February and March.

SeGaBob wrote:19 degrees here right now. :cold:


It got down to 20 here. I left the water run outside to keep the pipes from freezing and the puddle froze, and stayed frozen the entire day.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5739 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:59 am

Hammy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Hammy wrote:By the looks of the models (both short term and long) I think it's pretty save bet that nobody in Georgia east of I-85 will see even flurries this winter. :x


Uh, I think you may have possibly declared this too soon with this statement. The NC mountains and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas east of I-85 may see quite a bit of wintry precip beginning as early as this Friday.


I was referring specifically to Georgia. All the models I've seen essentially indicate the weather going up and over. And the cold-bias CFS shows a gradual warming through February and March.


OK Hammy. You may be right then about areas within Georgia east of I-85 going into February. However, I think areas along and east of I-85 from GA into the Carolinas may see flurries/light snow late Friday into Saturday with wraparound moisture on the back side of the Low Pressure system emerhing off the NC cosst.Enough cold air looks to be in place across those areas for this to occur.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5740 Postby timmeister » Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:36 am

Cold air next week, the 540 line is down into the Gulf. Weak low, developing late so no snow for the 'Burg yet.

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