Texas Summer 2016

[South Texas Storms]

I'm hoping this summer is cool and wet like 2007! The soil moisture sure is wet across the state now similar to that year so hopefully we can keep all the heat ridges away this year!

[Ntxw]

So what could make this summer a cool one? (relative). Well lets take a look at the past! Data that I pulled is only available starting from 1948.

A composite of known cooler summers (using some DFW data)



Pretty self explanatory here. 500mb weakness parked around Texas, lots of rain resulting in much cooler temperatures. Ridging is strong in Northern Canada, and strangely the feature that may have kept us warm in winter (strong eastern Aleutian low) is actually a cool signal in the summer.

The hot summers, ridge is centered near Texas and there is a strong northeast Pacific ridging...lower heights in Alaska and throughout Canada.



Interesting that the cooler years there seems to be a strong cold tongue off South America, contrary to our previous belief that El Nino's bring cooler summers which has been dis-proven. +PDO signal is good here below.



Hotter years the Nina is focused more to the west with solid -PDO to the west of North America as seen below.



In short to make this La Nina work we need the cold pool south/southwest of Alaska to remain in place. I believe this will be the case as waters in the Aleutians are ice cold from the ex-El Nino. The +PDO remains very strong despite the onset of La Nina. The Nina needs to center it's cold waters off South America vs over the central Pacific. If ridging remains in Canada then the lower pressures will be forced southward over the summer months. Just some thoughts stringing together some maps.

So far from everything I have seen I would but bets on a subdued summer.

[Brent]

Larry Cosgrove is again hyping up that summer will be very hot for most of the country, Texas included...

[Darvince]

Honestly based on what Ntxw posted and how the patterns have changed, I would say probably a slightly below average summer for Texas and a hot summer for basically everyone else, especially us here on the west coast.

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove is again hyping up that summer will be very hot for most of the country, Texas included...

If it makes you feel better he predicts a hot summer every year that I've followed him . And he's usually right, because it's Texas. Predict a hot summer and you will be right more than you are wrong. It's the best safety net.

[srainhoutx]

I'm hoping this summer is cool and wet like 2007! The soil moisture sure is wet across the state now similar to that year so hopefully we can keep all the heat ridges away this year!

We are already witnessing feedback issues with our saturated soils. One thing I have learned over the years is whether it is a drought feedback pattern where we are entrenched in endless upper heat ridges, often the opposite occurs when we see extremely wet soils even when an upper ridge does develop. I continue to be concerned that with La Nina rapidly developing, enhanced tropical activity across the Gulf will need to be monitored. With our already very wet pattern well established, any tropical troubles would only exasperate the problems we continue to witness across Texas and Louisiana.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm hoping this summer is cool and wet like 2007! The soil moisture sure is wet across the state now similar to that year so hopefully we can keep all the heat ridges away this year!

We are already witnessing feedback issues with our saturated soils. One thing I have learned over the years is whether it is a drought feedback pattern where we are entrenched in endless upper heat ridges, often the opposite occurs when we see extremely wet soils even when an upper ridge does develop. I continue to be concerned that with La Nina rapidly developing, enhanced tropical activity across the Gulf will need to be monitored. With our already very wet pattern well established, any tropical troubles would only exasperate the problems we continue to witness across Texas and Louisiana.

Yeah I agree. Especially with a possible ridge developing across the Southeast U.S., this could help to steer any tropical systems in our direction.

[South Texas Storms]

Larry Cosgrove is again hyping up that summer will be very hot for most of the country, Texas included...

If it makes you feel better he predicts a hot summer every year that I've followed him . And he's usually right, because it's Texas. Predict a hot summer and you will be right more than you are wrong. It's the best safety net.

Also, he was so keen last year that a La Nina would develop this past winter, then he slowly changed his tune to a weak El Nino. We all know how that panned out.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, preconditioning drought as a feedback is very important for a very hot summer. Last summer in late July and early August a fairly powerful heat ridge set up that kept things dry and got hot. If we had not received all that rain and vegetation was not green, it would have been much hotter with that kind of warmth and long period of no rain. Instead it was fairly seasonal heat.

It makes sense though if you think about it. The jet stream is way far north in summer so the weather patterns don't change much. Things go stagnant and gets stuck so feedback of what's on the ground gets amplified

[wxman57]

Ah, my favorite thread (and time of year). I'm not seeing any signs of a particularly dry and hot summer (like 2011). I'm fine with any temps over 80, though, and I know that this summer won't disappoint in that respect.

[Brent]

Larry Cosgrove is again hyping up that summer will be very hot for most of the country, Texas included...

If it makes you feel better he predicts a hot summer every year that I've followed him . And he's usually right, because it's Texas. Predict a hot summer and you will be right more than you are wrong. It's the best safety net.

Well yeah its texas even a below normal summer is gonna be hot... lol

[vbhoutex]

Ah, my favorite thread (and time of year). I'm not seeing any signs of a particularly dry and hot summer (like 2011). I'm fine with any temps over 80, though, and I know that this summer won't disappoint in that respect.

Believe it or not, the man even sweats!! I've seen it with my own eyes!!

[Texas Snowman]

Big tornadoes happening in West Texas and the Panhandle region.

[Tireman4]

Ah, my favorite thread (and time of year). I'm not seeing any signs of a particularly dry and hot summer (like 2011). I'm fine with any temps over 80, though, and I know that this summer won't disappoint in that respect.

Wait...any temps over 80? Are you getting soft? I thought it was 95 or bust..

[Janie2006]

Ah, my favorite thread (and time of year). I'm not seeing any signs of a particularly dry and hot summer (like 2011). I'm fine with any temps over 80, though, and I know that this summer won't disappoint in that respect.

Believe it or not, the man even sweats!! I've seen it with my own eyes!!

You lie!!

Chiming in here with a probably useless observation....given the wet soil conditions and the amount of rain that has fallen this spring I'd look for an average to slightly below average summer in these parts. That doesn't mean that there won't be periods of very hot weather (it is the Southland in the summer, after all), but I don't think we'll see another Texas Death Ridge *unless* the rain just stops completely starting right now. You need a feedback loop to get that kind of prolonged heat.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like summer is starting off the way spring has been lately, with even more potential flooding on deck.

[Brent]

NBC 5 just put a 10-day forecast on air(lol, I did a double take) with a more seasonal pattern(90 and sunny) beyond 7 days... we'll see how that goes.

That thing could be real fun in the winter... not.

[Ntxw]

FWD put up a great discussion for later this week. In particular talk of a warm core low which has been advertised by numerical guidance. These are notorious for some extreme flash flooding during the overnight hours. Somebody could get walloped by some hefty rainfall totals, even if it doesn't seem overly impressive as of now. Very tropical like rains coming.



The weather pattern will get interesting by Wednesday night as a
cut off upper level low moves into the state from the west. This
low will be vertically stacked, meaning that there will be a low
pressure/height center from the surface to the tropopause in the
same general area. This means the region will be in a persistent
area of upper level lift coincident with a continuous
east/southeast low level feed which will keep precipitable water
values up around 1.9 inches. Meanwhile the temperature gradients
associated with the upper low will weaken which is a sign of a
system transitioning from cold-core to warm-core. These warm-core
lows can sometimes set up a convective feedback loop where
convective episodes serve to enhance the upper level dynamics for
lift which results in more convection...and then more lift...and
so on. This can result in localized regions of very heavy rainfall
particularly during the late night and morning hours. So on the
synoptic scale there is the concern that all of the ingredients
are in place for some excessive rainfall totals somewhere across
Texas for the latter half of the week. Obviously we can`t say
exactly where these areas of heavy rain will set up at this time.
We can say that the due to the lack of baroclinic energy the
severe weather threat will be almost zero, since instability will
be limited and winds will also be fairly light through the
tropospheric column.

[gpsnowman]

NBC 5 just put a 10-day forecast on air(lol, I did a double take) with a more seasonal pattern(90 and sunny) beyond 7 days... we'll see how that goes.

That thing could be real fun in the winter... not.

Just saw this in the morning report. Did a double-take as well. Now watch channels 4,8, and 11 play catch up with their own 10 day outlooks.

[vbhoutex]

FWD put up a great discussion for later this week. In particular talk of a warm core low which has been advertised by numerical guidance. These are notorious for some extreme flash flooding during the overnight hours. Somebody could get walloped by some hefty rainfall totals, even if it doesn't seem overly impressive as of now. Very tropical like rains coming.



The weather pattern will get interesting by Wednesday night as a
cut off upper level low moves into the state from the west. This
low will be vertically stacked, meaning that there will be a low
pressure/height center from the surface to the tropopause in the
same general area. This means the region will be in a persistent
area of upper level lift coincident with a continuous
east/southeast low level feed which will keep precipitable water
values up around 1.9 inches. Meanwhile the temperature gradients
associated with the upper low will weaken which is a sign of a
system transitioning from cold-core to warm-core. These warm-core
lows can sometimes set up a convective feedback loop where
convective episodes serve to enhance the upper level dynamics for
lift which results in more convection...and then more lift...and
so on. This can result in localized regions of very heavy rainfall
particularly during the late night and morning hours. So on the
synoptic scale there is the concern that all of the ingredients
are in place for some excessive rainfall totals somewhere across
Texas for the latter half of the week. Obviously we can`t say
exactly where these areas of heavy rain will set up at this time.
We can say that the due to the lack of baroclinic energy the
severe weather threat will be almost zero, since instability will
be limited and winds will also be fairly light through the
tropospheric column.

If I remember my history correctly these types of lows are the ones that have brought SE TX/Houston some of our worst overnight rains in the past. I'm really becoming somewhat concerned with the evolving situation this week. I hope my concern is misplaced!!!