ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Circulation could be close to the surface.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Circulation could be close to the surface.

There is obviously some sort of circulation that just entered the water in the B.O.C. Seems to already be trying to develop. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

50%-50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure has developed offshore of the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, but the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Some gradual development
of this system is expected during the next couple of days in an
environment of marginal upper-level winds, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
around 10 mph before moving inland over eastern Mexico. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[RL3AO]

Ok, then could this reform in the Pacific?

No. Central Mexico is incredibly mountainous. A westward moving category 5 wouldn't survive into the Pacific where this thing is.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can clearly see the low level spin now. Just came off into the water about an hour ago and a big blow up near it as well. Location 19N and 92W. Seems to be organizing some.

[tatertawt24]

I really hope this becomes Danielle. After the last three years, we've earned being able to see some sort of record be broken, even if it is a small one.

[Alyono]

if it were not for the strong shear, this would likely develop very rapidly. Seems to have a good low level circulation, and it has about 48 hours over water

[Hammy]

if it were not for the strong shear, this would likely develop very rapidly. Seems to have a good low level circulation, and it has about 48 hours over water

I noticed this last night as well and have been wondering for some time, why do things tend to spin up as they move over the Yucatan? Even Barry in 2013 which had all but dissipated reformed it's circulation as it moved over.

[northjaxpro]

Shear I believe will ease off a bit by tomorrow as there is a pocket of 10-20 kt of shear a bit farther to the west. I think it should allow for conducive conditions for this to develop into a decent tropical cyclone by late tomorrow or early Monday.

[wxman57]

12Z EC isn't predicting much - a weak (20-25kt) low center moves inland into Mexico tomorrow night. That seems about right.

[tatertawt24]

There's definitely something special about Yucatan waters. Especially if the conditions are right. I always thought it was weird that Wilma broke Gilbert's record in almost the exact spot that he broke 1935's record. (Not saying anything like that is going to happen, of course. Just saying storms strengthen easily down there.)

[Alyono]

SHIPS indicates increasing shear with time

[tarheelprogrammer]

SHIPS indicates increasing shear with time

Shear will save lives once again. Seems to always be around storms at the right time the last 10 years or so. Good news possibly for people in Mexico but we shall see if the SHIPS model is right.

[Yellow Evan]

Despite the shear, the curvature of the coastline seems to be resulting in rapid organization of this invest. The center appears to be becoming better defined, and if trends continue, we could see a tropical depression within 12-24 hours.

[cycloneye]

60%-60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche
about 60 miles north-northeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters
of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past
several hours, but it is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple
of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

The Yucatan and Bay of Campeche are notorious for rapid developing tropical cyclones. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec plays an important role regarding the unpredictability of this portion of the Western Atlantic Basin.

[RL3AO]

Looks a lot better over the past six hours. Still seems a bit sheared. Not calling for RI yet though...

[RL3AO]

[tatertawt24]

Nice blowup of convection but you can tell it's fighting shear to the west.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 19.6°N 91.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM