WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#41 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:00 am

The Himawari-8 floater window with high spatial and temporal resolution is now pointed at 99W.

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/sat_tgb.php
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#42 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jul 02, 2016 10:12 am

The area of convection associated with 99W is huge... but the actual core of whatever circulation that is trying to form seems so small...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#43 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:30 am

12Z GFS now in good agreement with the ECMWF by day 5 with a recurve east of China:

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#44 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:49 am

SSD up to 1.5

Code: Select all

TXPQ28 KNES 021519
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B.  02/1430Z

C.  8.2N

D.  145.0E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS NEARLY .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5.  MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER


JTWC remains at 1.0 however.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 021501

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 02/1500Z

C. 8.40N

D. 145.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#45 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:49 pm

Like previous passes, this newest microwave pass shows increased surface organization. I'd say with pretty good confidence we're within 24 hours of classification now.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#46 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:23 pm

Wow looks like 905MB :eek:

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:51 pm

Appears to be a bit elongated, although almost classifiable IMO.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#48 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS now in good agreement with the ECMWF by day 5 with a recurve east of China:



Actually EURO brings this inland as per latest run. Devours Yaeyama and Miyako, clips Northern Taiwan, then into China.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#49 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 4:00 pm

Yep was talking about the 00Z Euro so now back to not having tight consensus between GFS and ECMWF (12Z run)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#50 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 02, 2016 4:23 pm

Up to 1.5 from PGTW.

TPPN10 PGTW 022107

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (INVEST)

B. 02/2040Z

C. 8.69N

D. 145.32E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1523Z 8.65N 144.87E AMS2


MARTINEZ
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#51 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:44 pm

TXPQ28 KNES 022111
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 8.4N

D. 145.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN .3 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET=1.0
AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#52 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:53 pm

If I were calling the shots, I'd say it's time to classify at 00Z.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#53 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 6:20 pm

Down to 929mb on 18Z
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#54 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 6:33 pm

I really haven't said anything regarding future intensity, but I do think 99W can become quite strong. With warm waters to traverse and good upper air support (Equatorial outflow channel and the TUTT to dump outflow in to the north/future poleward outflow channel, which I alluded to earlier back at the top of the previous page), I'd say odds favor 99W to at least become a major typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#55 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:25 pm

I'd say this is a 2.5 right now
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#56 Postby ManilaTC » Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:27 pm

1900hurricane wrote:SSD up to 1.5

Code: Select all

TXPQ28 KNES 021519
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B.  02/1430Z

C.  8.2N

D.  145.0E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS NEARLY .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5.  MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER


JTWC remains at 1.0 however.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 021501

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 02/1500Z

C. 8.40N

D. 145.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN



Hi guys, is there a link to get satellite fix bulletins? I used to get them through a mail list.
Aside from NOAA SSD's tropical bulletins page, that is.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#57 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:32 pm

ManilaTC wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:SSD up to 1.5

Code: Select all

TXPQ28 KNES 021519
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B.  02/1430Z

C.  8.2N

D.  145.0E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS NEARLY .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5.  MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER


JTWC remains at 1.0 however.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 021501

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 02/1500Z

C. 8.40N

D. 145.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN



Hi guys, is there a link to get satellite fix bulletins? I used to get them through a mail list.
Aside from NOAA SSD's tropical bulletins page, that is.


SSD's can be found here and JTWC's can be found in their front page. Not sure where to find JMA's or if it is publicly available.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#58 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:33 pm

Alyono wrote:I'd say this is a 2.5 right now


I bet JMA is about to upgrade to a TS in a few minutes while JTWC is still getting a 1.5 and not classifying. Ugh.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#59 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:35 pm

99W INVEST 160703 0000 8.7N 145.2E WPAC 25 1004

00Z. Winds up and pressure down but still no upgrade.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#60 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:58 pm

Named!

TS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 3 July 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°55' (8.9°)
E145°05' (145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°30' (11.5°)
E142°00' (142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E136°55' (136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55' (18.9°)
E130°40' (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
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