EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#261 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:40 am

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that Blas is beginning to weaken. The
eye has become a little less distinct this morning, and the
surrounding ring of deep convection has warmed over the
northwestern portion of the circulation. A blend of the various
Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS yields an
initial wind speed of 105 kt. Blas is currently moving over
gradually decreasing SSTs, which should result in continued
weakening, however, given the annular hurricane characteristics of
Blas the rate of weakening is expected to be gradual today. A more
rapid spin down should begin tonight or Friday when Blas moves over
even cooler water and into a more stable environment. The hurricane
is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and weaken to
a remnant low by day 5.

Blas is moving west-northwestward or 290/9. The hurricane is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward today, but is
forecast to turn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico and a mid-/upper-level low to the northeast of
the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance has come into better
agreement through this time period, and the NHC forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope through 72 hours. After Blas
weakens and becomes a shallower system, the ECMWF takes the cyclone
west-southwestward while the remainder of the guidance shows a more
westward track. The NHC forecast favors the latter scenario and
remains north of the ECMWF solution at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 127.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.8N 128.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.7N 129.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.9N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 132.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.9N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 11/1200Z 22.0N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#262 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:40 pm

[Div][
HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016

The eye of Blas has become cloud filled in visible satellite imagery
today, but the convective ring surrounding the center has changed
little since this morning. Recent microwave imagery indicates that
the southwestern portion of the eyewall has eroded somewhat.
Although the subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates have not
changed much since 1200 UTC, the objective T-numbers have decreased
and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt. Blas will be
moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment during
the next several days. This should result in a faster rate of
weakening and Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in
about 36 hours, and become post-tropical in about 72 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS/LGEM guidance
and close to the multi-model intensity consensus.

Blas continues to move west-northwestward or 290/9. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The hurricane is expected to
turn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. In 2 to 3 days, a weaker and more shallow Blas
should turn westward in the low-level easterly flow. The GFS and
ECMWF continue to converge on this solution, and the updated NHC
track is near a consensus of those models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.6N 127.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.1N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.2N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.5N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.9N 132.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.2N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 22.2N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 21.8N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
/Div]
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#263 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:57 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#264 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:37 pm

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016

The eye feature has become less discernible in enhanced
infrared imagery this evening, and the inner core cloud top
temperatures have warmed considerably. A compromise of all
available subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates
yields an initial intensity of 95 kt. Blas is expected to
accelerate its spin down as the cyclone continues to traverse a
rather sharp sea surface temperature gradient and reaches sub-24C
waters by the 36 hour period. Blas is forecast to weaken to
a tropical storm by that time, and ultimately become a remnant low
in 3 days, or earlier. The official forecast intensity is
basically an update of the previous advisory and is close to the
Florida State Superensemble.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/8, within the
southwestern peripheral steering flow of a mid-level ridge
originating over eastern Mexico. Large-scale models all show the
cyclone gradually turning northwestward in 12 hours as Blas
enters a growing weakness produced by a large cut-off low northeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. As the weakening trend accelerates and
Blas becomes a vertically shallower system, the post-tropical
remnant low is expected to turn westward in the easterly flow of the
trades. The NHC forecast is based on a blend of the previous
forecast and a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS (GFEX).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.9N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 17.6N 129.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 18.8N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 20.2N 132.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.5N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.5N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 22.3N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z 21.7N 146.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#265 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:30 am

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016

The eye of Blas is no longer apparent in infrared imagery, but cold
cloud tops persist in a CDO over the center. The initial intensity
is lowered to 90 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates. Rapid weakening is expected during the
next 48 hours as Blas moves over much cooler waters and into a drier
and more stable airmass, and the NHC forecast during this time is
close to the latest LGEM guidance. Blas is expected to become
post-tropical by 48 hours and then continue a slow spin down through
the remainder of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 300/09, as Blas is beginning to gain
some latitude as it moves around the southwestern edge of a
subtropical ridge centered well to the east over Mexico. The track
model guidance shows Blas turning northwestward between 12 to 36 h
as it moves into a weakness ahead of a large upper-level low
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that time a weakening Blas
should turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence
of the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC forecast is a bit
north of the previous one through 48 hours following the latest
guidance trend. Late in the period the guidance has shifted
southward, and the new NHC track is south of the previous one.
This forecast is little south of the latest GFS track and ends up a
bit north of the multi-model consensus by day 5.

The initial and forecast wind radii were adjusted based on a pair
of timely ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes over Blas between 0530 and 0630
UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 17.4N 129.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.3N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 20.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#266 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:18 pm

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016

Despite being over cool water, the convection associated with
Blas remains deep with cloud tops below -70C. Recent microwave
data show that the eye of Blas is still intact and it has
occasionally been evident in infrared satellite imagery this
morning. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are gradually
decreasing and a blend of the latest estimates yields an initial
wind speed of 85 kt. The hurricane will be moving over waters
below 24C and into a more stable atmospheric environment during the
next 12 to 24 hours. This is expected to cause rapid weakening and
Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday,
and become post-tropical in about 48 hours.

Blas is still moving west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn northwestward very soon between a mid-level ridge
extending westward off the coast of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
low northeast of Hawaii. As Blas weakens and becomes a more
vertically shallow system, it should turn back westward, then
west-southwestward in the low level trade wind flow in 48 to 72
hours. The bulk of the track guidance has shifted a bit southward
at 48 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in
that direction. The updated track is near the center of the model
envelope through 72 hours, but is north of the multi-model consensus
after that time out of respect for the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and
continuity with the previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 17.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.7N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 20.3N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#267 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:34 pm

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016

Cool waters are taking a toll on Blas. The satellite presentation
of the hurricane has degraded since this morning as the convective
cloud tops have warmed and steadily decreased in coverage. Dvorak
intensity estimates continue to decrease and the initial wind speed
has been reduced to 75 kt, which is blend of the latest subjective
T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane should continue
to quickly weaken while it moves over water below 24C and into a
more stable environment during the next several days. The latest
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, and calls
for Blas to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become a
post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours.

Recent center fixes show that Blas has turned northwestward. The
cyclone should continue moving northwestward during the next day or
so into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid-
to upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii. By Sunday, the
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn back westward in the
low-level easterly flow. The guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous NHC advisory.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT
pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.5N 130.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 10/1800Z 22.0N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 21.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#268 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2016 9:38 pm

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016

Blas has continued to move over increasingly cooler waters, and
although the convection has been on a general weakening trend, the
hurricane still has a vigorous circulation as indicated by ASCAT
earlier today. A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
from all agencies supports an initial intensity of 70 kt. In
addition to the effect of cooler waters, the shear is forecast to
increase. Recent microwave imagery suggests that the low-level
center is south of the convection, indicating that the shear is
already increasing. These factors should result in faster
weakening, and Blas is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday or
sooner. In fact, SHIPS and LGEM basically dissipate the cyclone
in 48 hours or so.

The cyclone is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about
10 kt around the southwestern periphery of the Pacific subtropical
ridge, and this general track is forecast to continue for a day or
so. In about 36 hours or less, Blas should have become a shallow
system and will likely be steered westward and west-southwestward by
the low-level trade winds. Most of the models have been fairly
consistent with this scenario for a while, and there are no obvious
reasons to vary from earlier NHC forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.2N 132.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 21.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 21.8N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 20.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#269 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:12 am

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Blas continues to gradually weaken due to cool SSTs and increasing
shear. Microwave imagery indicates that the low-level center is
displaced 20 to 30 miles to the south of the mid-level center
apparent in geostationary imagery. Dvorak classifications were
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 60 kt based on a blend of these data. Quick
weakening is forecast to continue while Blas moves over SSTs below
24C and southwesterly shear increases. Blas is forecast to become a
remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate by day 5, and the new NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus.

The above-mentioned microwave imagery showed that the low-level
center was located a little south of previous estimates, and the
adjusted best track yields an initial motion estimate of 310/08.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Blas should
continue west-northwestward for the next 24 hours and then turn
westward and eventually west-southwestward as the remnant low is
steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track is a
little south of the previous through 36 hours given the initial
position adjustment, and is close to the previous advisory after
that time. This forecast is close to the multi-model consensus
through much of the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.5N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.5N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.3N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 21.6N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 21.5N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 20.0N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#270 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2016 9:52 am

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Satellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken. The
associated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and
gradually losing organization during the last several hours.
Accordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the
latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has
decreased to near 50 kt. Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters
and embedded in a fairly stable air mass. These unfavorable
conditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind
shear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening
trend to continue. Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located
on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over
northwestern Mexico. A gradual turn to the west is expected over
the next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is
steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#271 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Blas continues to decay. The intensity and coverage of the
associated deep convection has been shrinking throughout the day,
and the remaining cold cloud tops are mainly confined to the
northwestern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak T-numbers
are falling, and a blend of the latest classifications support
lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The storm is currently
over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a dry air mass. These
conditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should
cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The
global models show the remnant low dissipating in about 4 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The weakening system is still moving northwestward at about 10 kt.
A turn toward the west is predicted over the next day or so when
Blas becomes an even shallower system and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The NHC official track forecast has
been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into
better agreement with the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.8N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#272 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2016 9:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The cloud pattern has degraded significantly tonight, and the
deep convection has practically vanished. However, given the
vigorous circulation still associated with Blas, it is estimated
that the winds are 35 kt. Due to cold waters and high shear, global
models and the intensity guidance weaken the cyclone fast. On this
basis, the NHC forecast calls for Blas to degenerate into a remnant
low in 24 hours or less.

Blas' circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10
kt. Now that the cyclone is quickly becoming a shallow system, it is
forecast to be steered westward or west-southwestward by the
low-level flow until dissipation in a couple of days. Blas could
still produce sporadic bursts of convection in the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 21.5N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Depression

#273 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2016 5:09 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Blas has been void of organized deep convection since about 00Z,
and convection is unlikely to return given that the cyclone is
moving over SSTs less than 24C. The initial intensity is lowered to
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Blas should
weaken to a remnant low later today and the cyclone is expected to
open up into a trough after 48 hours.

Microwave fixes indicate that Blas is located a bit south of
previous estimates and the latest geostationary fixes, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/10. The shallow cyclone is expected
to gradually turn west-southwestward under the influence of the
low-level trade wind flow before dissipation. The new NHC track
forecast is a little south of the previous one given the initial
position and a southward trend in the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 21.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

#274 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2016 9:42 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Deep convection associated with Blas has been absent for more than
12 hours, and significant convection is unlikely to return since the
cyclone is over 24 C waters and embedded in a stable air mass.
Therefore, Blas is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The
initial intensity of 30 kt is based on recent scatterometer data.

The remnant low is moving westward at about 9 kt within the
low-level trade wind flow. A westward to west-southwestward motion
at about the same forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days while the low gradually weakens. Dissipation is forecast to
occur in 2 to 3 days.

Even though Blas is no longer a tropical cyclone, altimeter data
from a few hours ago still indicated an area of seas higher than 12
ft near the system. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 21.3N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 11/0000Z 21.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z 21.1N 140.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 20.7N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 20.3N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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