EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Losing banding. Also I see no outer eyewall. The dry air just weakened the eye but no secondary eyewall formed.

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/RmzOn5l.jpg[/mg]

Losing banding. Also I see no outer eyewall. The dry air just weakened the eye but no secondary eyewall formed.

I think it may go annular.

[Yellow Evan]

Major structural change as Celia appers more CDO oriented.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS shifted south, and has Celia at a believable intensity.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2016 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 14:58:11 N Lon : 123:32:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 982.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -17.8C Cloud Region Temp : -51.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[stormwise]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE CELIA
Monday 11jul16 Time: 0203 UTC
Latitude: 14.90 Longitude: -123.24
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 21 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 967 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 88 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 8mb +/- 9kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.10
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.47
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.06
RMW: 28 km
RMW Source is: TPC



warming up.

[stormwise]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2016 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 14:59:29 N Lon : 123:56:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.0 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -1.6C Cloud Region Temp : -50.5C

Scene Type : EYE


positive eye temp maybe on the way soon.

2016JUL11 053000 4.7 976.9 82.2 4.7 4.8 4.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -15.66 -49.68 EYE 20 IR 7.1 15.07 123.83 COMBO GOES15 21.9
Utilizing history file /home/padt/ADTV8.2.1/history/04E.ODT
Successfully completed listing

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 04, 2016071106,   , BEST,   0, 149N, 1239W,  75,  983, HU,  34, NEQ,  120,   90,   80,  110, 1008,  200,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      CELIA, D,

Probably conservative

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro shifted north.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  CELIA       EP042016  07/11/16  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    75    79    82    85    86    88    87    81    73    65    58    53    48
V (KT) LAND       75    79    82    85    86    88    87    81    73    65    58    53    48
V (KT) LGEM       75    78    81    82    81    79    75    68    60    52    47    44    41
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     3     4     6     9     4     3     2     3     7     5     8    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -2    -3    -4    -4    -2    -1     0     1    -4    -1    -2     0
SHEAR DIR         70    58    13    34    43    54   101    59   225   229   255   293   303
SST (C)         27.6  27.2  26.6  26.3  26.2  26.1  25.5  24.6  24.1  24.4  24.6  24.6  25.1
POT. INT. (KT)   140   136   130   127   125   124   118   109   104   107   109   109   115
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.5   0.6   0.6   0.5   0.5   0.8   0.7   0.7   0.8   1.2   0.8   0.9   0.6
TH_E DEV (C)       6     5     5     5     5     4     3     2     2     2     3     3     4
700-500 MB RH     72    71    71    71    72    72    69    67    62    58    52    50    44
MODEL VTX (KT)    30    31    32    33    33    34    34    33    31    29    27    26    25
850 MB ENV VOR    60    60    60    64    69    76    74    64    66    58    68    58    59
200 MB DIV        63    55    56    67    59    17    60    17    14     4    11     0   -15
700-850 TADV       0    -2    -3    -2    -2    -1     0     4    14    10    14    10    10
LAND (KM)       1637  1712  1792  1856  1906  1981  2064  2157  2032  1809  1582  1337  1094
LAT (DEG N)     14.9  15.1  15.2  15.5  15.7  16.5  17.3  18.3  19.4  20.3  20.9  21.3  21.5
LONG(DEG W)    123.9 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.1 129.9 131.6 133.4 135.4 137.5 139.7 142.1 144.5
STM SPEED (KT)    11    11    10    10    10    10     9    11    11    10    11    11    11
HEAT CONTENT      29    20     8     3     4     4     2     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  70            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  496  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           19.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -4.  -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   6.   8.  10.  10.  11.  10.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   3.   6.   6.   4.   1.  -1.  -4.  -5.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   7.  10.  11.  13.  12.   6.  -2. -10. -17. -22. -26.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   75. LAT, LON:   14.9   123.9

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA      07/11/16  06 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           3.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    56.7      40.3  to  144.5       0.16           0.9
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    12.8       0.0  to   75.9       0.17           1.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    10.2      38.9  to    2.1       0.78           5.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     5.0      18.9  to    1.4       0.79           4.8
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    75.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.77           4.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    60.0     -11.0  to  135.3       0.49           1.5
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   286.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.50           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.3       2.1  to   -1.7       0.63          -0.7
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  28% is   2.2 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  13% is   3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    16.6%   27.8%   21.3%   16.3%   13.2%   11.7%    0.0%
    Logistic:     4.8%    5.8%    5.2%    2.6%    1.5%    1.3%    0.5%
    Bayesian:     0.5%    2.0%    0.8%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     7.3%   11.9%    9.1%    6.4%    4.9%    4.4%    0.2%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA      07/11/16  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##

[Yellow Evan]

00z Euro shifted north.

Still brings it over most of Hawaii

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

TXPZ23 KNES 110628
TCSENP

A.  04E (CELIA)

B.  11/0600Z

C.  14.9N

D.  123.9W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...EYE PATTERN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN DG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...RAMIREZ

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro shifted north.

Still brings it over most of Hawaii

Yeah. It looks like this system will be tracking the fine line between hitting Hawaii and just missing to the north.

[stormwise]

Looks a weak TD as per the EC run, still bring weather and you can never rule out waterspouts or torn spawning from within the storms in the bands.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2016 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:07 N Lon : 124:01:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 974.9mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.1 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : -3.3C Cloud Region Temp : -53.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[stormwise]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2016 Time : 083000 UTC
Lat : 14:56:19 N Lon : 124:27:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 967.2mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -57.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.3 degrees

2016JUL11 073000 4.9 971.0 87.4 4.9 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -15.86 -55.20 EYE 28 IR 7.1 15.11 124.20 COMBO GOES15 21.7
2016JUL11 080000 5.1 967.2 92.4 5.1 5.4 5.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.36 -57.35 EYE 34 IR 7.1 14.93 124.46 COMBO GOES15 21.3
2016JUL11 083000 5.1 967.2 92.4 5.1 5.5 5.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 7.04 -57.78 EYE 28 IR 7.1 14.94 124.46 SPRL GOES15 21.3
Utilizing history file /data2/misc/adt/scripts/history/04E.ODT
Successfully completed listing

[stormwise]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

...CELIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 124.5W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Celia was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 124.5 West. Celia is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so. Slow weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

Celia still has a somewhat ragged satellite appearance tonight. The
deepest convection is located in a broken ring around a ragged
intermittent eye and in a band well east of the center. TAFB and
SAB Dvorak estimates at 06Z were T4.5/77 kt, and the initial
intensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory. Additional slow
strengthening seems likely for the next day or so while Celia moves
over SSTs above 26C. After that time the waters will cool, which
should result in a slow weakening through the remainder of the
forecast period since the shear will remain low. The new NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one, showing a peak of 90 kt in
about 24 h, and this is above all of the intensity guidance. During
the weakening phase, the NHC forecast lies between the stronger
SHIPS model and the weaker LGEM.

The hurricane is moving westward at 11 kt. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast in about 24 hours as Celia reaches the
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the period,
the ridge should rebuild to the north, resulting in the track
bending back toward the west. Overall, the track model guidance is
in good agreement on this scenario. For this cycle, the NHC
forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north, but lies south of the
latest TVCN multi-model consensus aid.

An ASCAT-B pass from around 0520Z was used to adjust the initial
34-kt and 50-kt wind radii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 15.0N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 15.1N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 16.5N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 17.5N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 19.6N 135.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 21.5N 144.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[dexterlabio]

I think the actual track will either be the GFS or Euro's. There is no in between. This will be another opportunity to know which of the two is the king.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

After developing what had been a decent looking eye with a diameter
of about 20 nmi, dry air has once again penetrated into the
inner-core region and has eroded most of the eyewall convection.
Satellite current intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from
TAFB and SAB to as high as T5.4/100 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Given the
ragged-appearing inner-core region in the last few images, the
intensity is only raised to 80 kt for this advisory, which is
consistent with a 1200 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON consensus of 82 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. A westward motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest late tonight as Celia begins to move into a
developing weakness in the subtropical ridge. This weakness will be
created by a narrow mid-level trough along 130W longitude that is
digging southward as noted in water vapor imagery. The shortwave
trough is forecast to weaken by 72 h and lift out to the north or
northeast, which will allow the ridge to rebuild and force Celia
back on a more westward track on days 3-5. Similar to the previous
advisory, the NHC track model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on this scenario and is tightly packed around the previous
forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is essentially
just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just
south of the TVCN consensus model.

Celia likely only has another 12 hours or so to strengthen while the
hurricane remains over SSTs above 26.5 deg C. The overall mid-level
environment is fairly moist and the vertical shear is expected to
remain light, which should favor some additional intensification. By
36 hours, however, Celia will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, which
should induce slow but steady weakening through the remainder of the
forecast period. However, since the vertical wind shear is expected
to remain low, Celia is forecast to still be a tropical cyclone when
it crosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin
in about 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and lies above all of the intensity guidance
through 36 h, and then lies near or below the guidance after that
during the weakening phase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 15.1N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 15.5N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 18.2N 132.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 20.1N 136.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 21.1N 140.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.6N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart