EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

Estelle has changed little in organization throughout the day.
Satellite images show that the center of the storm is located
beneath a central dense overcast, with some fragmented bands around
that feature. The initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, which
could be a little generous based on the latest Dvorak
classifications. Estelle is now over cool 25 deg C waters, and it
is headed for even cooler water during the next few days. These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass
and an increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening
trend. Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 48 hours, or perhaps sooner, when it moves over SSTs around 22
deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from this morning,
and lies close to the intensity model consensus.

Estelle is moving westward at about 11 kt, and is being steered by
a strong subtropical ridge located over the central United States.
The storm is expected to turn west-northwestward tonight and then
northwestward in a couple of days when it reaches the western
periphery of the ridge. A continued northwestward motion is
expected until the cyclone dissipates in 4 to 5 days. The new NHC
track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies
near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 19.4N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.9N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 20.7N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 21.7N 131.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 23.0N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/1800Z 26.6N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 30.2N 142.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

Satellite images show that Estelle continues to display a small
central dense overcast, and microwave data indicate the center is on
the southern side of the cloud mass. Satellite classifications are
a bit lower than earlier, and the initial wind speed is set to 55
kt. A combination of cooler waters, dry and stable air, and
increasing shear should cause Estelle to gradually weaken over the
next few days. Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone
in about 36 hours when it moves over SSTs around 22 deg C. The NHC
intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous
forecast, lying close to the model consensus.

Estelle is moving westward at about 12 kt, and is being steered by
a strong subtropical ridge. The storm is expected to turn west-
northwestward tomorrow and then northwestward in a couple of days
when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. A continued
northwestward motion is expected until the post-tropical cyclone
dissipates in 4 to 5 days. There have been no significant changes to
the guidance, and the new NHC track forecast is very close to the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 19.5N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 19.9N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 22.0N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 23/0000Z 23.5N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 26.9N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z 30.5N 142.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:13 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

The amount of convection has continued to decrease and is now
concentrated within a small area near the low-level center. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed much, and a recent ASCAT pass over the
cyclone shows a few vectors of 50 kt. These winds are confined to
the northern semicircle and not far from the center. Initial
intensity was then set at 50 kt. Estelle is forecast to weaken
gradually as it moves over cooler waters during the next few days,
and most likely the cyclone becomes post-tropical in about 36 hours
or sooner. Dissipation is expected in 4 or 5 days.

Estelle is being steered west-northwest at about 13 kt by a strong
subtropical ridge, and it is expected to turn northwestward in a
couple of days when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.
There have been no significant changes to the guidance, and the new
NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and remains
near the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 19.8N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 20.4N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 22.8N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0600Z 24.4N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 27.5N 140.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z 30.5N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:43 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Estelle continues to feature a small area of deep convection mainly
to the northwest of the estimated low-level center location. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Weakening is forecast since
Estelle will be moving over cooler SSTs and the shear is expected
to increase. These factors should result in Estelle losing
organized deep convection and becoming post-tropical in 24 to 36
hours. The remnant low of Estelle should dissipate in 4 or 5 days.

The initial motion estimate is 285/13, as Estelle is being steered
by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-
central United States. Estelle should continue moving around the
periphery of the ridge and turn northwestward by 48 hours, and this
northwestward motion should continue through dissipation. The new
NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48
hours and is near the latest TVCN consensus. A larger westward
adjustment was made at days 3 and 4, trending toward a leftward
shift in the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.1N 128.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 23.3N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 24.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 27.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 30.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:16 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 212036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Estelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west
of the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is
set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB. Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over
SSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result
in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post-
tropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner. The remnant
low of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/14. Estelle is being steered by
a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central
United States. Estelle should continue moving around the periphery
of the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this
motion should continue through dissipation. The new NHC track
forecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one
following the latest trend in the guidance. The official forecast
is close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new
multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:53 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Convection associated with Estelle has decreased during the past
several hours, and there is currently no organized convection
present. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on the
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the subsequent
decay of the convection. Cold water, a dry air mass, and
increasing shear should cause continued weakening, with Estelle
likely to decay to a remnant low sometime on Friday. The system is
subsequently forecast to weaken to a trough after 72 hours.

The initial motion remains 290/14 kt. Estelle is being steered by
a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central
United States, and it is heading for a break in the ridge caused by
a large deep-layer low over the northeastern Pacific. This
combination should produce a general west-northwestward to
northwestward motion until the system dissipates. The new forecast
track is basically an update of the previous track and lies near
the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 21.6N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 22.8N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 25.4N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 28.0N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:52 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Estelle has been devoid of deep convection since 0000 UTC. The
circulation, however, is still vigorous. Based on continuity and a
recent ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone, the initial intensity has been
adjusted to 35 kt. Since the cyclone is moving over increasingly
cooler waters, additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle will
likely degenerate into a remnant low today, and probably will
dissipate during the weekend. I would not be surprised if the system
generates sporadic bursts of thunderstorms during the next day or
so.

Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 14
kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this general track
steered by the flow around the subtropical ridge until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 21.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 22.3N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 25.5N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

#68 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:51 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Estelle has been lacking any deep convection for about 15 hours,
and is now designated a post-tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
latest Dvorak CI estimate from TAFB based on weakening rules. The
cyclone should gradually spin down over the next couple of days
as it moves over cool waters and dissipate in 48 to 72 hours.

Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 kt, and this
motion should continue until dissipation as the cyclone is steered
by the subtropical ridge centered well to its northeast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 21.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/0000Z 22.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 23.7N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 24.7N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 25.8N 142.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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