WPAC: MIRINAE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY THAT REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED AS THE CONVECTION REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCC. TD 05W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME, BUT THE
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. SSTS REMAIN WARM ALONG THE TRACK, BUT OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT DROPS OFF IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
ON HAINAN ISLAND AROUND TAU 24 AT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KTS,
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. LITTLE IF ANY
REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ONCE TD 05W RE-EMERGES OVER WATER. A
SECOND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD, AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS NEAR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND ORIENTATION OF THE 700 MB RIDGE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Have they been? I was unaware that it was having calibration issues. In that case, I'd have to retract my previous critique. Do you know why they have been suspect as of late?

[euro6208]

EURO doesn't do much with this until after landfall where it strengthens it in the Gulf of Tonkin before it's second landfall...

[1900hurricane]

It's got a good banding structure, but this can be seen because the convection isn't co-located with the center.

[euro6208]

Convection on the increase...

[Alyono]

Have they been? I was unaware that it was having calibration issues. In that case, I'd have to retract my previous critique. Do you know why they have been suspect as of late?

the values have always been off on RAPIDSCAT. I've seen it have 40 kts when ASCAT has had 20

[1900hurricane]

Go figure, I was aware of ASCAT's low bias at the greater wind speeds, but I was never aware that RSCAT had a high bias. I'll certainly keep that in mind in the future. Hopefully the upcoming ASCAT passes will hit 05W cleanly. In the meantime, SSD analyzed 2.5 while JTWC has 2.0 (below). I'm not sure what JMA has, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them name 05W at 06Z. The convective burst near the center is certainly making the system look a little healthier.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 260235

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)

B. 26/0230Z

C. 18.23N

D. 112.75E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 252343Z SSMIS IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS LEFT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TD 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. HOWEVER,
NEAR-TERM FORECAST POSITION HAVE BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
BASED ON RECENT STORM MOTION.
B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN
ISLAND UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, ONGOING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES HAINAN. LITTLE. IF ANY, REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ONCE
TD 05W RE-EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AFTER TAU 24. A SECOND
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS NEAR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND ORIENTATION OF THE 700 MB RIDGE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND IT TRACKS INLAND AS THE STEERING RIDGE
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES. GIVEN RELATIVE CONSISTENCY IN THE PAST TWO MODEL
GUIDANCE PACKAGES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

JMA has it at T2.0 at 00Z.

http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/BUFR/ ... e(Himawari)/SAREP/
The Dvorak analysis from JMA can be downloaded here. It's in BUFR format though (quite annoying) and you may need a decoder. Here's one provided by the ECMWF: http://apps.ecmwf.int/codes/bufr/validator/. Note that they only do Dvorak at synoptic times (00Z, 06Z, etc.)

[euro6208]

JMA has now upgraded to Mirinae.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (MIRINAE) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND IMPROVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 260225Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A BAND
OF 30-KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC, WHICH
ALONG WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS, SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BOLSTERED BY A 260714Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
POSITIONED JUST UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED, THE LLCC REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR CREATED BY AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 24, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING SPREAD DUE TO MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THE RE-CURVE PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TS
05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER
HAINAN ISLAND WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS EXPECTED NEAR TAU
12. TS 05W SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER HAINAN ISLAND WITH A
SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF
TONKIN NEAR TAU 24. FURTHER WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST VIETNAM AND TRACKS INLAND.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Interesting...Is that an eye?

[1900hurricane]

It's the opposite actually. That was a prominent overshoot.

Here's JMA's forecast for Mirinae.

TS 1603 (Mirinae)
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 26 July 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 26 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50' (18.8°)
E110°55' (110.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°25' (19.4°)
E108°50' (108.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°00' (20.0°)
E107°20' (107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 28 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25' (21.4°)
E104°05' (104.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N24°00' (24.0°)
E101°50' (101.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

[dexterlabio]

Looks like this is a win for the Euro then? Sniffed a tropical storm developing in the SCS before the GFS did...

[1900hurricane]

I'd probably characterize Mirinae with the shear pattern. Looks to be approaching landfall on Hainan very soon if not there already. On a related note, I'm having a hard time accessing radar images from the area.

[TheAustinMan]

Radar imagery out of Sanya on Hainan.

[1900hurricane]

Radar imagery out of Sanya on Hainan.

Out of curiosity, how were you able to get that image? The China radar images aren't displaying for me.

Anyway, it looks like Mirinae's center has clearly moved inland.

[TheAustinMan]

Out of curiosity, how were you able to get that image? The China radar images aren't displaying for me..

I'm using the National Meteorological Center of China's webpage, which has views of radar sites individually. (http://eng.nmc.cn/publish/radar/stations-sanya.html)

[NotoSans]

Lowest pressure reported in Hainan was around 989 hPa.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (MIRINAE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME
REPORTING AGENCIES. TS 05W HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AFTER CROSSING HAINAN ISLAND. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LEFT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS SUSTAINED VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR COUNTERACTS THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 12 AND STEADILY DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH THE GFS,
GEFS, AND GFS-INITIALIZED MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE, AND
OTHER MODELS INCLUDING NAVGEM, ECMWF, JGSM, AND TC-EPS DEPICTING A
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND MODEL GROUPING, WHICH HAS
DEMONSTRATED A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MODEL GROUPING AND RECENT TRACK TRENDS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES TO THE LEFT OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN