Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

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TheStormExpert
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#41 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:58 am

From tracking no tropical waves to tracking so many you can't tell between them! :lol:

Talk about things suddenly picking up in the Tropical Atlantic.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#42 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:02 am

TheStormExpert wrote:From tracking no tropical waves to tracking so many you can't tell between them! :lol:

Talk about things suddenly picking up in the Tropical Atlantic.


The calendar never lies.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#43 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:03 am

TheStormExpert wrote:From tracking no tropical waves to tracking so many you can't tell between them! :lol:

Talk about things suddenly picking up in the Tropical Atlantic.

Yeah :D we're approaching slowly but really the peak of the season. Things are progressively ramping up. Matter of time each week should provide some surprises in store for sure. Be convinced about that :clap:
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#44 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:07 am

RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:From tracking no tropical waves to tracking so many you can't tell between them! :lol:

Talk about things suddenly picking up in the Tropical Atlantic.


The calendar never lies.

:fantastic:
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#45 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:17 am

Gustywind wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:From tracking no tropical waves to tracking so many you can't tell between them! :lol:

Talk about things suddenly picking up in the Tropical Atlantic.


The calendar never lies.

:fantastic:

If the SAL would let up a bit I could only imagine how active things would be right now... Let's hope the ball gets rolling by early August :ggreen:
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#46 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:22 am

this wave is helping clear out SAL for 96L which is why the models are giving a higher chance of development for 96L than this wave. So this wave looks to be a sacrificial wave.

Will need to watch this wave once it gets further west (i.e. just north of the islands as the global models suggest) to see if it might find more favorable conditions down the road.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#47 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:22 am

Kazmit_ wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
The calendar never lies.

:fantastic:

If the SAL would let up a bit I could only imagine how active things would be right now... Let's hope the ball gets rolling by early August :ggreen:

Absolutely my friend! Let's wait and see.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#48 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:10 am

12Z GFS running is showing a more vigorous wave than previous runs as it races west and heads WNW just north of the islands into the Bahamas over the 5 days. I even see the GFS building an upper-anticyclone over this wave. It seems what is holding the GFS back from developing this wave is the dry air around it

Image
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#49 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:15 am

:uarrow: Yeah gatorcane, this wave for sure needs to be watched as it approaches just NE of the Caribbean and heads into the Bahamas region, a region likely more favorable than what it is currently in.

This could be more of a threat to the U.S. if it develops compared to 96L.

By the way, it stalls in the Northern Bahamas in 6 days on the 12z GFS.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#50 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:21 am

And the 12Z GFS now has a weak closed 1013MB low that develops in the Bahamas as it slows down near Florida in the Northern Bahamas:

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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#51 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:25 am

12z CMC develops this in the NE Caribbean @ 90hrs.

Image
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#52 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:26 am

gatorcane wrote:And the 12Z GFS now has a weak closed 1013MB low that develops in the Bahamas as it slows down near Florida in the Northern Bahamas:

Image


If it stalls like what the GFS shows in 5 or 6 days in the Bahamas I would be willing to bet it is stronger than that. Scary solution there. :eek:
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#53 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:33 am

TheStormExpert wrote:12z CMC develops this in the NE Caribbean @ 90hrs.

http://i68.tinypic.com/2rc6744.jpg


CMC looks to send this through the northern Caribbean into the Southern Gulf where it strengthens.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#54 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:35 am

gatorcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:12z CMC develops this in the NE Caribbean @ 90hrs.

http://i68.tinypic.com/2rc6744.jpg


CMC looks to send this through the northern Caribbean into the Southern Gulf where it strengthens.


Heading for Mexico but CMC is usually not good with path right? The GFS is a scary run for the Carolinas for sure. Hopefully it is going nuts. Not strong but I believe it could end up a lot stronger sitting out there in the Bahamas and all that warm water. :eek:
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#55 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:38 am

GFS looks to develop this as it approaches the Carolina coastline - note long-range here so take intensity and track of this low with a grain of salt:

Image
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#56 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:00 pm

Here is how the 12z CMC ended with a mid-grade TS making landfall around Corpus Christi, Texas @ 216hrs.

Image
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#57 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:16 pm

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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#58 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:33 pm

So in the short term forget about 96L, Leeward Islands & Bahamas need to keep an eye on this vigorous tropical wave.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#59 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:52 pm

The GFS expect it to reach the SE Bahamas in 108 hours so this wave will be hauling butt westward!

The wave is coming into view on the wide Atlantic view (far right):

Image
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#60 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:06 pm

Too bad we don't get all teh high resolution feeds from 3.47, 48.75 piped into storm2k.
Even the latest wave off Africa is starting to dry out, but they do seem to be getting further and further north.
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