ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:46 pm

AL, 97, 2016072718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 289W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072800, , BEST, 0, 127N, 301W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072806, , BEST, 0, 128N, 315W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072812, , BEST, 0, 129N, 330W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 345W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118084
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ATL: EARL - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:47 pm

Models only.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#3 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:47 pm

1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:51 pm

This is a teaser and is designed to mess with our minds... :lol:

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97L Over Eastern Islands In 72 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#5 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:55 pm

12z...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#6 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:10 pm

12z Euro is coming in a little more organized on the system as it approaches the Leeward Islands. It is also slowing down on the timing.

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Last edited by NDG on Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:11 pm

12z Euro coming in stronger with a 1008mb closed low @ 72hrs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#8 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:13 pm

Hi Rez 12Z euro on Weatherbell has closed isobars just NE of Guadeloupe at 66 hours.

From TT:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:15 pm

Torn apart by Hispaniola @ 96hrs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#10 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:18 pm

We've gone from nothing to something quickly, will need to watch in my opinion since rarely is track accurate this far out. Via Weatherbell maps it may cross PR as a tropical Storm before running into Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#11 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:20 pm

tolakram wrote:We've gone from nothing to something quickly, will need to watch in my opinion since rarely is track accurate this far out. Via Weatherbell maps it may cross PR as a tropical Storm before running into Hispaniola.

All it would take is 100 miles north or south of Hispaniola and it stays completely over water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:20 pm

Before Hispanola it moves thru the NE Caribbean Islands and PR.Have to watch closely here.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#13 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:21 pm

BTW, the Euro paints a very strong ridge to the north of 97L, this will not be recurve if it survives Hispaniola.
Where's Ninel's permanent trough? :lol:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:23 pm

This steering pattern seems eerily similar to last season with a stronger Bermuda High just minus the Caribbean Shear.
:double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#15 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:25 pm

1012mb low hugging the north coast of Cuba @ 120hrs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#16 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:27 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#17 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:31 pm

Even the conservative JMA is a bit more bullish:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:37 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby StormChaser75 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:42 pm

The sometimes unreliable cmc model showing a hurricane dolly type storm hit. Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#20 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:48 pm

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