WPAC: NIDA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#21 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:56 am

JTWC dropping Nida '09 down to 155 kt in their best track is one of my bigger qualms with them wrt postseason revisions because, well...

JMA has tagged 96W as a Tropical Depression.

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 281200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 146E 42N 141E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 39N 180E 33N 171E 36N 152E 37N
146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 40N 116E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 48N 144E NE 15 KT.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1603 MIRINAE (1603)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 22N 105E NW 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 128E WNW SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 23N 147E NNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 42N 166E WEST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 123E TO 39N 128E 42N 134E 43N 140E 48N 144E
47N 148E 44N 151E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1027
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#22 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:57 pm

12Z GFS continues to trend towards Euro, showing a typhoon making landfall over eastern Guangdong. 12Z Euro shows a typhoon making landfall over Hong Kong.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117609
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#23 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:51 pm

18z position:

Location: 11.0°N 128.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#24 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:07 pm

96W looks to be coming together nicely. It's really firing off some cold, deep convection too. Sounding data from the Philippines shows tropopause temps of around -85*C at 100 mb. Overshoots are occasionally clearing -90*C.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117609
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:14 pm

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY
490 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281722Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS, MODEST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:06 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 282107
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 28/2030Z

C. 11.0N

D. 127.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DEEP CONVECTION FORMING BANDS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. BANDING WRAPS 0.25 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:44 pm

NotoSans wrote:12Z GFS continues to trend towards Euro, showing a typhoon making landfall over eastern Guangdong. 12Z Euro shows a typhoon making landfall over Hong Kong.


18Z GFS even closer to Hong Kong...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2976
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#28 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:39 pm

1900hurricane wrote:96W looks to be coming together nicely. It's really firing off some cold, deep convection too. Sounding data from the Philippines shows tropopause temps of around -85*C at 100 mb. Overshoots are occasionally clearing -90*C.

http://i.imgur.com/vDBXfgE.gif

http://i.imgur.com/GeKpbdf.gif


No wonder torrential rainfall is being reported over some areas in Visayas. While in Manila, just your typical scorching hot day.. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:48 pm

96W's circulation certainly is expansive.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:54 pm

LLC just off the coast of Samar...

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:01 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 127.7E TO 15.9N 125.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY
765 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 282306Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BAND
OF HEAVY CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, WITH A
SMALLER AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD, INDICATIVE OF
THE DEEPENING LLCC. DESPITE THE HEAVY CONVECTION, CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA DEPICT MOSTLY LIGHT (5-10 KNOT)
WINDS, WITH MSLP BETWEEN 1006 TO 1007 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY
FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL BROAD AT THIS TIME, THE MSI IS
SHOWING SIGNS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING.
THE
LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARD TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
MODEL INDICATED DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300130Z.
//
NNNN
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:02 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 290023

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 29/0000Z

C. 11.90N

D. 127.87E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 83NM FROM LLCC
YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DREW
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:09 pm

Seeing that track will remain it over some of the warmest ocean conditions on the planet combined with low shear, i have this strange feeling Northern Luzon might get something particularly strong. It's rapidly consolidating already. The P.I sea is notorious for these monsters... :eek:
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:06 pm

I don't necessarily think it'll bomb out before impacting Luzon, but if it can manage to thread the Luzon Strait, it could get pretty strong before a China landfall.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2391
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#35 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:14 pm

euro6208 wrote:Seeing that track will remain it over some of the warmest ocean conditions on the planet combined with low shear, i have this strange feeling Northern Luzon might get something particularly strong. It's rapidly consolidating already. The P.I sea is notorious for these monsters... :eek:


That's a very distinct possibility. Condition in the Philippine Sea east of Northern Luzon is very favorable and ripe for RI.
the system already has very robust equatorial outflow, it just need to develop the other half and we're ready to go.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:57 pm

A weak TUTT cell does exist to the north, so it is conceivable that 96W could dump some outflow there before it dissipates.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#37 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:01 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 290317
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 29/0230Z

C. 11.7N

D. 127.1E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...ESTIMATED CENTER IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION, BUT A BAND TO
THE WEST MEASURES 3/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2976
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#38 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:17 pm

I see the models do not support an intense typhoon before it reaches Luzon. Although I won't be surprised by anything passing through this area. If it slows down further and manages to borrow some time for strengthening, then there's a bigger chance for that. The biggest threat remains to be the heavy rainfall.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#39 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:34 pm

Latest 00Z GFS continues to jog Nida more westerly passing south of Hong Kong and into Southern China after it drenches the Northern Tip of Luzon.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#40 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:42 pm

I wish I knew what JMA finds so interesting about the Kamchatka Peninsula that makes them keep their Himawari-8 rapid scan floater window there so often. Personally, I'm much more interested in 96W.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest