Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#121 Postby JaxGator » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:35 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#122 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:41 pm

[Tweet]Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 500 miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde islands is poorly organized. This system is moving
slowly westward, and development appears to be unlikely due
to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent[/Tweet]
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#123 Postby Kazmit » Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:05 pm

96L is dying. It should no longer be a concern. 97L is the one to look out for now, it's at 30%/60% now, and forecast to track into the western caribbean and/or the GOM. Here, it could really develop into something scary.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#124 Postby JaxGator » Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:14 pm

Kazmit_ wrote:96L is dying. It should no longer be a concern. 97L is the one to look out for now, it's at 30%/60% now, and forecast to track into the western caribbean and/or the GOM. Here, it could really develop into something scary.


Not a concern now anyway, but it could still be trouble down the road.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#125 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:53 am

Kazmit_ wrote:96L is dying. It should no longer be a concern. 97L is the one to look out for now, it's at 30%/60% now, and forecast to track into the western caribbean and/or the GOM. Here, it could really develop into something scary.

yeah i tend to agree with jaxgator, even its low chances now doesnt mean it wont suddenly burst and reform in the better conditions. the GEFS mean model for pressure shows 97 hitting mx/tx border area and 96 behind over the islands slightly more north than where 97 is right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#126 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:59 am

Dying? I dont think so. 96L might just be playing hide and seek with the ITCZ
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#127 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:48 am

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should
continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#128 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:36 am

Yeah, I agree about these statements about 96L dying off? Quite the contrary. 96L has bursted over the past 12-24 hours out there. I would not take my eye off 96L in any circumstance. 96L may be finding better environment ahead, especially once the system gets west of 50 degrees Longitude. The Carribean Islands needs to watch 96L in the next 5 to7 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#129 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:51 am

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, I agree about these statements about 96L dying off? Quite the contrary. 96L has bursted over the past 12-24 hours out there. I would not take my eye off 96L in any circumstance. 96L may be finding better environment ahead, especially once the system gets west of 50 degrees Longitude. The Carribean Islands needs to watch 96L in the next 5 to7 days.


Yes I agree, I don't see the energy dying off, something to watch unless it gets absorbed down the road by the next TW exiting Africa.
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#130 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:29 am

Florida needs to watch this imo...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#131 Postby znel52 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:36 am

Yeah I personally wouldn't bring out bones just yet. The energy is still there could be trouble down the road.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#132 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:45 am

Too early for Florida to watch but it indeed does seem to be picking up energy, recent SAT showed increased convection trying to wrap at the mid levels.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#133 Postby colbroe » Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:34 am

Looks like it is making a return .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#134 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:12 am

Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

Very broad midlevel circulation with a hint of a cyclonic twist... Some convection popping... A long way from coming back, but it's happened before...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#135 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:32 am

I"m curious if convective activitiy seems minimal due to pressure heights or more due to SAL related drying air?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#136 Postby colbroe » Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:39 am

You can see clearly a rotation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#137 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:53 am

this is looking very well organized this morning
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#138 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:57 am

Could they reactivate the Invest @ 2pm when the next TWO comes out?

Time will tell! 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#139 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:05 pm

97L didn't start picking up convection till after it reached -53 w but the SAL looks like it has diminished a little. Doubt they will reactivate the invest till later in the week, but you never know.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#140 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:08 pm

The GFS while doesn't develop this, shows a mini-anticyclone building overtop and moving in tandem with it over the next several days.
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