EPAC: HOWARD - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#61 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:12 am

Not sure if it's a large ragged eye trying form or dry air. MW imagery shows not much signs of dry air entrainment.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#62 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:16 am

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:47 am

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:59 am

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

The cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory with the low-level center now embedded within a developing
central dense overcast feature. Satellite intensity estimates are
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and T2.7/39 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Howard, the eighth named storm of the
2016 season and the eighth named storm during the past 30 days as
well.

The initial motion remains 295/10 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Howard is
expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion for the next
72 hours along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located
to the north of the cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is
forecast to become a shallow remnant low over much cooler water and
be steered westward by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The
new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models and
down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

Additional strengthening is forecast today and tonight while Howard
remains over SSTs greater than 25.5 deg C. By 36-48 hours, the
cyclone will be moving over sub-24 deg C water and into some modest
southwesterly vertical wind shear. That combination of unfavorable
conditions will induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard
degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond.
The official intensity forecast is similar to previous forecast, and
closely follows the SHIPS and IVCN consensus intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.1N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.8N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 19.1N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 20.2N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 22.7N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby talkon » Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:05 am

Up to 45 knots.

09E HOWARD 160801 1200 16.4N 123.1W EPAC 45 1000
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:43 am

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

Howard's convective structure has gradually been increasing in
organization. The cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a
long curved band, at the head of which is a clearing around the
low-level center. Subjective Dvorak satellite classifications are
T2.5/35 kt and T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend
of these is used to arrive at the initial intensity estimate of 45
kt.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09. Howard's primary steering
mechanism is the western extension of a subtropical ridge located
over the south-central United States, which is imparting a mostly
westerly course. However, a mid- to upper-level low west of the
cyclone is allowing for a greater northerly component of motion.
This general movement with some increase in forward speed is likely
during the next 2 days, after which time a turn toward the west
is likely. This should occur when Howard weakens and becomes a
shallower cyclone in the trade-wind flow. The official NHC track
forecast is hardly unchanged from the previous one and is closest
to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions.

Ships model output shows some westerly shear over the cyclone,
perhaps related to Howard's outrunning the upper-level anticyclone
over it. Otherwise, large-scale conditions are expected to be
sufficiently conducive for some additional intensification during
the next 24 hours or so. By 36-48 hours, Howard should reach much
cooler waters and enter an increasingly drier and more stable
environment, all of which should lead to weakening. This should
result in a fast rate of weakening, and the system is forecast to
become post-tropical in 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is
close to the multi-model consensus in the short term and then
follows the LGEM during the weakening phase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.7N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 17.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 19.9N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 21.0N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 22.9N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 22.9N 150.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:54 pm

NHC needs to step it up... the discussion for Howard is not 30 minutes early! :lol: :lol:
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:NHC needs to step it up... the discussion for Howard is not 30 minutes early! :lol: :lol:


Probably busy with 97L's recon getting caught up.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:01 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:NHC needs to step it up... the discussion for Howard is not 30 minutes early! :lol: :lol:


Probably busy with 97L's recon getting caught up.


Yep.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:13 pm

What has been the latest there has ever been an advisory issued? This is unusually late probably given the Atlantic invest.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:29 pm

Finnally.

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

Howard's cloud pattern has become less organized since the last
advisory. Although the cyclone has plenty of banding features,
they are generally confined to eastern half of its circulation. The
low-level center has also recently become exposed, possibly due to
westerly shear. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and
T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity
estimate is kept at 45 kt, on the lower end of these estimates
because of the cyclone's degraded appearance.

The initial motion estimate is 295/11. A subtropical ridge north
of Howard is primarily responsible for the cyclone's steering, but a
mid- to upper-level low to the west of it has been imparting a
greater northerly component of motion. This general motion with
some slight increase in forward speed is likely for another couple
of days, after which time a turn toward the west is expected. The
turn should occur once Howard weakens and becomes a much shallower
cyclone embedded in the trade-wind flow. The new NHC track
forecast is only adjusted slightly north of the previous one and is
quite close to the multi-model consensus.

Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently high to allow for some
intensification during the next 12 hours or so, but westerly shear
over Howard may temper that. Weakening should commence in about 24
hours, and this rate of weakening should soon become faster as the
large-scale thermodynamic become increasingly hostile. Remnant low
status is forecast in 48 hours, and dissipation is likely just
after day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat reduced
relative to the previous one and is a little lower than the multi-
model consensus after 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.4N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.8N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 21.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 23.3N 146.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 23.4N 151.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:51 pm

18z GFS trending a bit stronger.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

Visible imagery and a 01/2038 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass show that
Howard's center of circulation has become exposed to the west of the
cloud canopy. Additionally, the entire western half of the cyclone
has become devoid of deep convective banding. It appears that
modest westerly shear is impinging on the storm and undercutting the
diffluent flow aloft. A blend of the Final-T numbers from
both TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 45 kt for this
advisory. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next
12 hours while Howard remains over SSTs greater than 26C. By the 24
hour period, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler sub-24 deg
C water. Cooler SSTs and increasing southwesterly shear should
induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard degenerating into a
post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, and a remnant low by day 3.
After that time, the large-scale models show the remnant low
degenerating into a trough of low pressure. The intensity forecast
is a little above the previous forecast, but is lower than the IVCN
intensity consensus.

Satellite position estimates suggest that Howard is moving
toward the west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 12 kt. Howard
is expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion during
the next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a subtropical
ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Through the remainder of
the period, the cyclone is forecast to become a shallow remnant low
and turn toward the west following the low-level easterly tradewind
flow. The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous
one, and is hedged toward the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 17.7N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 20.0N 130.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 21.1N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 22.0N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 23.3N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z 23.2N 152.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:31 am

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Deep convection has increased and become better organized since the
previous advisory with the development of a ragged CDO feature.
However, recent ASCAT wind data indicate that the low-level center
is displaced near the southern edge of the cloud shield due to some
modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been
increased to 50 kt based on ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B overpasses around
0600Z.

The initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. Howard is forecast to
continue moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next
48 hours or so and gradually weaken. By 72 hours and beyond, Howard
is expected to become a vertically shallow remnant low pressure
system that will be steered westward by a expansive subtropical
ridge located to the north of the cyclone. The NHC model guidance
remains tightly packed and the new forecast track, which lies close
to multi-model consensus TVCN, is just an extension of the previous
advisory.

After the earlier brief convective hiatus while Howard was moving
over a cold water pool, the cyclone is now moving over warmer water,
which likely has aided in the recent redevelopment of significant
convection. Although some additional intensification is possible
today, this will be short-lived due to Howard moving over sub-25 deg
C sea-surface temperatures and into drier and more stable airmass in
12 hours or so. After that time, the combination of even cooler
water and increasing southwesterly wind shear should induce steady
weakening, with Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours.
While the remnant low is forecast to move back over SSTs near 26
deg C in 96-120 hours, strong southwesterly shear and a stable air
mass should prevent any redevelopment of persistent deep convection.
The new intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 18.3N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.5N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.4N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 23.2N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z 23.2N 154.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2016 10:53 am

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Howard's convective structure has not changed much since the
previous advisory with the low-level center located just inside the
southern edge of a ragged central dense overcast. The initial
intensity remains 50 kt, which is supported by a blend of CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB. Howard's center is now moving over sea
surface temperatures between 25-26C, and it should reach sub-24C
waters in about 24 hours. Vertical shear, on the other hand,
probably won't be too hostile for another 2 to 3 days. Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast to begin in 12-24 hours and should
continue through the end of the forecast period. The intensity
guidance is holding Howard's intensity up a little longer compared
to previous cycles, and the updated NHC intensity forecast follows
this trend beginning at the 48-hour forecast period, lying close to
a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. At this point, it is
expected that vertical shear would cause Howard to become
post-tropical by 72 hours, which is also a little later than
indicated in previous advisories. It should be noted that the IVCN
intensity consensus is 5-10 kt higher than the official forecast on
days 3-5, so additional adjustments to the forecast intensity and
cyclone status may be necessary if it appears that Howard could hold
on as a tropical cyclone longer than currently anticipated.

The initial motion remains 295/13 kt. Howard is located near the
southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which is expected
to build westward during the next 24 hours. As a result, the storm
should continue west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed
by a westward motion on days 3-5 once the cyclone becomes
post-tropical and is steered by the low-level trade winds. There
is very little spread among the track models, and the NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.8N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 130.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 20.8N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 22.2N 139.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 22.8N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 23.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:03 am

I'd watch this carefully in Hawaii, as well as the one behind it
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:00 pm

Looks like we are at the point in the season where both the Atlantic and East Pacific can be simultaneously active with tropical cyclones in both basins.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:54 pm

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Microwave data indicate that deep convection is displaced a bit to
the north of the low-level center due to moderate southerly shear.
Subjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt while objective numbers
have actually increased to between 50-55 kt. Due to the
conflicting estimates, the initial intensity is being maintained at
50 kt.

Howard is located along the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge, and its initial motion remains 295/13 kt. The ridge is
forecast to build westward and remain situated north of the cyclone
for the entire forecast period, which should maintain Howard on a
west-northwestward or westward heading through day 5. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, but there has been a notable
southward shift in the overall model envelope, especially beyond
day 3. As a result, the NHC official forecast is also shifted a
bit southward and is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.

Howard is now moving over sea surface temperatures around 25C and
is forecast to move over even colder waters for the next 2 to 3
days. Vertical shear, on the other hand, is expected to be less
than 20 kt through 72 hours. Possibly due to these conflicting
conditions, the intensity forecast is somewhat uncertain. The
SHIPS and LGEM models indicate that the cyclone will steadily
weaken to a remnant low through day 5, while the HWRF and GFDL
models show a more gradual weakening rate, with even some
re-intensification around days 3 and 4. These models showed
similar scenarios for Hurricane Darby, which moved through a
similar region, and the SHIPS and LGEM models ended up having a
significant low bias for that storm. In addition, simulated
infrared satellite imagery derived from the GFS and ECMWF models
shows the cyclone maintaining deep convection through 5 days. The
NHC official forecast continues to depict the system becoming
post-tropical in 72 hours once the vertical shear increases above 20
kt, but there is low confidence in the time of this transition. In
addition, the official forecast intensities are a little higher from
36 hours and beyond compared to the previous forecast and are close
to the IVCN intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.3N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 21.7N 137.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 22.1N 140.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 22.5N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 151.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 07/1800Z 23.0N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:18 pm

Alyono wrote:I'd watch this carefully in Hawaii, as well as the one behind it


I know it's a bit early but it looks like it'll be taking a track similar to Celia as it near Hawaii.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:59 pm

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Howard is still displaying some convection this evening, but the
extent and organization of the convection is diminishing.
Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications are dropping and a
blend of the TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT values indicate the intensity
has dropped to around 40-45 kt. 45 kt is used as the
initial intensity, though this may be generous given Howard's
recent trends.

The initial position of Howard has significant uncertainty, as
there have been no microwave images available nor has the
last-light visible imagery been very illuminating. The initial
motion is assessed as 13 kt toward the west-northwest, as the
system is primarily being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
northeast. The track models are tightly clustered and suggest a
gradual turn toward the west at about the same forward speed during
the next few days. The NHC track forecast is nearly the same as
that from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCN track
model consensus.

While the vertical shear should remain relatively low over Howard
during the next day and a half, the SSTs that Howard will traverse
should get quite cool and the atmosphere dry and stable. At about
two days, the SSTs become lukewarm but the shear becomes
prohibitive for intensification. Thus it is expected that Howard
will gradually weaken, and in about two days lose its deep
convection and become a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity
forecast is based upon the LGEM and SHIPS statistical/dynamical
methods, as the three dynamical hurricane models - HWRF, GFDL, and
COAMPS - all unrealistically re-intensify Howard between days three
and five. This official forecast calls for slightly weaker
intensities than those indicated in the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 20.1N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.9N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.7N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 22.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 22.6N 141.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 06/0000Z 23.0N 147.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 23.0N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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