EPAC: JAVIER - Post -Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2016080512, , BEST, 0, 147N, 943W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
EP, 93, 2016080518, , BEST, 0, 151N, 959W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
EP, 93, 2016080600, , BEST, 0, 156N, 973W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
EP, 93, 2016080606, , BEST, 0, 161N, 988W, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
EP, 93, 2016080612, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1003W, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 90, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[hurricanes1234]

No floater up as yet.

What are the models predicting?

[cycloneye]

A moderate Tropical Storm at the most for Baja California.

[cycloneye]

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 08/1800Z FIX MISSION INTO
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF WESTERN MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21.5N 108.5W
IF IT IS A HURRICANE WIND THREAT.

[Ntxw]

It has a lot of deep convection. Question is, will it take a slow process to organize like the past several systems?

[cycloneye]

80%-90%

A broad area of low pressure has formed near the southwestern coast
of Mexico and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extend from the Gulf of Tehuantepec northwestward to near
Manzanillo. Additional development of this system is anticipated,
and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or
two while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico and
southern portions of the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 061812
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 06/1745Z

C. 16.4N

D. 100.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE CONSOLIDATING BETWEEN BANDING FEATURE TO THE EAST
AND LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NW. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area about
150 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, are gradually
becoming better organized. Although there is no indication of a
well-defined circulation yet, surface pressures have fallen
significantly across this region during the last 24 hours. If
these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form
tonight or Sunday while the low moves west-northwestward to
northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico toward the
southern Baja California peninsula. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Almost classfiable if you ask me. GFS/ECMWF keep this fairly weak though.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 93, 2016080700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1029W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017

[talkon]

We have TD 11E.

EP, 11, 2016080706, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1038W, 30, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 100, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, TRANSITIONED, epB32016 to ep112016,

[talkon]

First Advisory is out.

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The low pressure area near the southwestern coast of Mexico has
become better defined overnight, and there is sufficient convective
organization to classify the system as a tropical depression.
Although the convection near the center has recently decreased,
there are several curved bands around the outer portion of the
circulation. Recent land-based observations indicate that brisk
southeasterly winds are occurring along the immediate coast of
Mexico, and ship H9LA reported a minimum pressure of 1004.9 mb and
31 kt southerly winds early in the evening. Based on these data,
the initial wind speed is estimated to be 30 kt.

The forecast track of the depression takes it over very warm water
during the next couple of days, but moderate easterly shear and
interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico
should mean only slight strengthening today. Additional modest
intensification is expected tonight and Monday, before the system
nears the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about 48 hours. After that time, interaction with land and a more
stable airmass should cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast
to dissipate near or over the central Baja California peninsula in
4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the SHIPS guidance, which is a little above the dynamical
models.

Since the tropical cyclone is still in its formative stage, the
initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 290/9 kt. The
depression is forecast to turn northwesterly by late Sunday as it
moves around the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge
centered over the south-central United States. In 3 to 4 days, a
deepening mid-level trough off the west coast of the United States
should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward or northward.
The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC forecast lies
near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 18.0N 104.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 19.0N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.3N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 21.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 22.4N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 24.6N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SKIRTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 104.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz
southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today and this
motion should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression should pass near or over the southwest
coast of Mexico today, and approach the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48
hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the
Mexican states Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern
part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 12 inches through Tuesday morning.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the southwest
coast of Mexico within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula within the watch area by late Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not become any better
organized since earlier today. There is little evidence of banding
features at this time, although upper-level outflow is fairly well
defined over the northern semicircle of the cyclone. The intensity
is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
as well as the lack of any surface observations of tropical-storm-
force winds. Aside from some land interaction with southwestern
Mexico today, the cyclone will move over warm waters and in a low
shear environment, which should allow for strengthening. However,
since the system is currently broad and poorly organized, only
gradual intensification is anticipated. The official intensity
forecast is the same as the previous one and very close to the
latest SHIPS guidance.

Since the center is not yet well-defined, there is significant
uncertainty in the initial motion, which is estimated to be 300/9
kt. The depression is expected to move around the southwestern
periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system for the next
day or two, and then turn toward the right ahead of a trough near
southern California. The official track forecast is similar to
that from the last advisory and in close agreement with the
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 18.7N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 20.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 21.7N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 22.8N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 25.2N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[galaxy401]

Javier now.

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Surface observations from Manzanillo, Mexico, indicate that the
depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Javier. The maximum
winds are estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 105.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch

[HurricaneBelle]

Time to update the thread title, Javier is here.

WTPZ61 KNHC 071604
TCUEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Surface observations from Manzanillo, Mexico, indicate that the
depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Javier. The maximum
winds are estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 105.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch

[cycloneye]

First mission on Monday afternoon.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 07 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z AUGUST 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-073

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 08/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0111E CYCLONE
       C. 08/1230Z
       D. 21.2N 107.5W
       E. 08/1700Z TO 08/2030Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARK:  8-HR RESEARCH MISSIONS INTO TD 11-E ABOARD NOAA 43 ARE
                PLANNED, DEPARTING FROM KHRL AT 08/1800Z AND 09/0600Z.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks very disorganized at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

Javier and its remnants could bring heavy monsoonal rainfall across Northern Mexico and possibly New Mexico and Texas as a trough picks up Javier and unsettled weather meanders Westbound toward the Northern and NW Gulf.

[tailgater]

Is this EX EARL