EPAC: JAVIER - Post -Tropical

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

No stronger storm than 35kts-40kts so far.

URPN15 KNHC 081727
AF302 0111E JAVIER HDOB 31 20160808
171730 2157N 10902W 8430 01548 0061 +187 +163 186023 024 030 002 00
171800 2158N 10903W 8429 01548 0058 +186 +163 187022 023 032 002 00
171830 2159N 10904W 8429 01547 0059 +186 +163 198022 023 035 002 00
171900 2201N 10906W 8431 01543 0059 +180 +167 200023 024 035 002 00
171930 2202N 10907W 8431 01542 0056 +180 +169 206024 026 037 005 00
172000 2203N 10908W 8428 01539 0061 +176 +175 205023 026 040 013 03
172030 2204N 10910W 8429 01536 0062 +176 +176 219032 036 049 032 03
172100 2205N 10911W 8418 01538 0055 +179 +179 219032 038 051 042 03
172130 2207N 10912W 8429 01521 0052 +182 +182 223036 043 055 037 00
172200 2208N 10913W 8417 01525 0032 +186 +186 208020 043 049 035 03
172230 2209N 10915W 8427 01515 0025 +188 //// 354002 025 041 007 01
172300 2210N 10916W 8430 01510 //// +190 //// 044013 015 028 002 05
172330 2211N 10918W 8435 01509 //// +193 //// 040019 020 031 002 01
172400 2212N 10919W 8429 01517 0018 +192 +191 034023 024 036 001 01
172430 2213N 10921W 8429 01521 0025 +190 +187 026029 030 036 001 01
172500 2213N 10922W 8425 01528 0028 +191 +182 030034 036 035 001 00
172530 2214N 10924W 8432 01525 0032 +195 +177 033036 037 036 001 00
172600 2215N 10925W 8429 01532 0041 +186 +184 030036 037 040 001 01
172630 2216N 10927W 8410 01555 0049 +182 //// 032038 040 042 002 01
172700 2217N 10928W 8433 01536 //// +187 //// 027035 037 041 005 01

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

Barely a tropical storm per Recon so far, man another joke tropical storm that can't deepen despite low shear...

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 081737
AF302 0111E JAVIER HDOB 32 20160808
172730 2217N 10930W 8431 01539 0064 +185 //// 029038 040 041 006 01
172800 2218N 10931W 8429 01543 0068 +175 //// 027036 037 042 005 01
172830 2219N 10933W 8425 01550 //// +177 //// 025037 038 040 003 05
172900 2220N 10934W 8423 01554 //// +175 //// 023035 037 040 004 01
172930 2221N 10936W 8427 01552 0069 +180 //// 021038 039 038 005 01
173000 2221N 10937W 8427 01552 0069 +182 //// 021037 042 039 005 05
173030 2222N 10939W 8432 01545 0074 +179 //// 021036 038 036 006 01
173100 2223N 10940W 8433 01542 0071 +169 //// 024038 040 041 004 01
173130 2224N 10942W 8428 01548 0070 +178 //// 026040 041 039 005 01
173200 2225N 10943W 8432 01544 0072 +172 //// 024037 041 038 005 05
173230 2225N 10945W 8422 01552 0065 +168 //// 026035 041 037 003 01
173300 2226N 10946W 8425 01550 0067 +173 +167 029034 035 035 004 00
173330 2227N 10948W 8429 01544 0082 +158 //// 027036 037 035 005 01
173400 2228N 10949W 8429 01550 0070 +174 +162 024035 036 036 001 00
173430 2229N 10951W 8430 01550 0070 +177 +157 022036 037 036 001 00
173500 2229N 10952W 8426 01556 0073 +176 +162 024035 036 032 003 00
173530 2230N 10954W 8435 01549 //// +167 //// 025035 037 032 002 01
173600 2231N 10955W 8431 01552 0074 +168 //// 027032 035 034 002 01
173630 2232N 10957W 8430 01555 0075 +176 +165 028032 033 032 001 00
173700 2233N 10958W 8429 01555 //// +166 //// 023030 033 030 002 01

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
1200 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS THAT JAVIER HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 109.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, and has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Evaristo to Loreto
* Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 109.3 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Javier is forecast to pass near or
over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later today,
and move near the west coast of Baja California Sur tonight and
Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible while Javier passes near the
extreme Baja California peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa
and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN15 KNHC 081847
AF302 0111E JAVIER HDOB 39 20160808
183730 2200N 10940W 8430 01526 0044 +175 //// 346038 038 045 003 01
183800 2201N 10939W 8433 01517 0037 +185 //// 346037 038 046 005 01
183830 2202N 10938W 8424 01526 //// +182 //// 343035 038 046 003 01
183900 2203N 10936W 8427 01521 0018 +194 +177 347034 035 047 002 00
183930 2204N 10935W 8433 01510 0018 +191 +175 346035 036 047 002 00
184000 2205N 10934W 8434 01509 0022 +180 +180 339041 045 049 003 01
184030 2206N 10933W 8432 01503 //// +181 //// 341038 041 050 002 01
184100 2207N 10932W 8429 01499 9996 +198 +176 342032 037 051 003 00
184130 2209N 10931W 8436 01489 0002 +189 +182 332026 030 055 008 00
184200 2210N 10930W 8425 01497 0001 +184 //// 318018 022 055 007 01
184230 2211N 10928W 8428 01493 9991 +190 +183 338014 016 038 003 00
184300 2212N 10927W 8429 01483 9984 +193 +185 060003 011 034 004 00
184330 2213N 10925W 8417 01497 9976 +208 +184 110019 023 030 003 00
184400 2214N 10924W 8421 01496 9972 +224 +170 115027 029 031 002 00
184430 2215N 10923W 8431 01494 9982 +219 +169 120031 032 034 001 00
184500 2216N 10922W 8430 01499 9995 +205 +176 124032 032 035 001 00
184530 2217N 10921W 8432 01502 0002 +200 +182 124042 048 036 001 00
184600 2219N 10920W 8433 01508 0008 +204 +172 123051 052 038 002 00
184630 2220N 10919W 8432 01516 0015 +206 +160 125050 051 043 002 00
184700 2222N 10918W 8429 01521 0022 +198 +160 119047 048 043 002 00
$$

[Yellow Evan]

So much for barely being a TS. 55 knt SFMR 52 knt FL 998 mbar w/ 10 knot wind supports 50/997.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  JAVIER      EP112016  08/08/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    55    58    60    60    60    57    53    49    44    42    40    38    37
V (KT) LAND       55    58    60    60    60    53    49    37    32    29    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM       55    58    59    58    57    45    46    35    31   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         7     6     5     4     3     3     3     3     7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -1    -2    -3    -2    -2    -4    -3    -4   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR         43    44    28    13   319   342   287   223   311   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         28.9  28.6  28.1  27.7  27.4  26.8  25.7  24.4  23.8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   153   149   144   140   137   131   119   104    97   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.2   0.3   0.2   0.4  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     5     4     4     3     3     3     3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     70    66    66    67    66    61    54    49    47   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    12    11     9     9     6     4     3     3  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    20    27    28    16    17    23    11     8    -8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        39    46    35    15     2     4    -4    13   -10   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -7    -4    -7    -7    -4    -2     0    -1     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        105    36    29    32    25     8    18   -37    -8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     22.2  22.6  23.0  23.5  24.0  25.1  26.5  27.3  27.9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    109.3 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.3 112.2 113.2 113.8 114.0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)     7     6     6     6     7     7     7     4     3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      12     9     4     4     9     8     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/  8      CX,CY:  -5/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  45            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  517  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            5.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   4.   3.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   4.   6.   8.   9.   9.   9.   9.   9.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -5.  -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   5.   5.   5.   2.  -1.  -6. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   22.2   109.3

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER     08/08/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    10.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.53           4.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    89.3      40.3  to  144.5       0.47           2.8
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     7.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.10           0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    14.5      38.9  to    2.1       0.66           4.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     5.1      18.9  to    1.4       0.79           5.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    55.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.91           5.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    27.4     -11.0  to  135.3       0.26           0.9
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   179.0     638.0  to  -68.2       0.65           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.58          -0.7
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.8
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  32% is   2.5 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  24% is   2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  15% is   3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  14% is   2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    14.8%   31.9%   23.6%   16.8%   14.6%   17.3%   13.9%
    Logistic:     5.7%    8.5%    9.1%    6.5%    3.3%    4.0%    1.4%
    Bayesian:     0.6%    3.2%    0.9%    0.3%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     7.0%   14.5%   11.2%    7.8%    6.0%    7.1%    5.1%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER     08/08/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Javier
on a long mission from base. They measured peak SFMR-observed
surface winds of 54 kt and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 52
kt. On the basis of these data, the intensity is set at 55 kt.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight while the
center pass near or over the extreme southern Baja California
peninsula. Later the period, cooler SSTs, interaction with land,
and an increasingly stable air mass should cause gradual weakening.
The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model
consensus.

Center fixes from the aircraft give an initial motion estimate of
315/8. Javier is expected to continue to move around the western
periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. The
official track forecast lies close to the dynamical model
consensus, TVCN.

Observations from the aircraft indicate that Javier is a small
tropical cyclone. Although some slight expansion of the wind field
may occur over the next day or so, the radius of
tropical-storm-force winds is not expected to be much more than 60
n mi.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.5N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LAZARO TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO
* CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
600 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS INDICATE JAVIER MOVING SLOWER
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 109.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lazaro to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Evaristo to Loreto
* Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 109.6 West. Reports
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Javier has
slowed down and is now moving toward the northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier will pass near
or over the southern tip of the Baja California tonight, and move
near the west coast of Baja California Sur on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible while the center
passes near the southern Baja California peninsula tonight and
early Tuesday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by Tuesday
afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

Reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is estimated to be 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa
and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area over the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 2016080900, , BEST, 0, 223N, 1096W, 55, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 40, 40, 1008, 90, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JAVIER, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,

[stormwise]

And Javier is barely a tropical storm lol

Following pass, no real change in intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be rapidly dissipating offshore Baja, with very little convection left.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Javier at 700 mb this
evening, as part of a research mission, measured peak SFMR-observed
surface winds of 46 kt. A dropsonde measured a central pressure of
1003 mb, but with a 45-kt surface wind, which equates to a pressure
of about 999 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been lowered
slightly to 50 kt. The reconnaissance wind data also indicate that
Javier remains a compact tropical cyclone, and that the
flight-level center is tilted southwest of the surface center.

Smoothing through the various wobbles in the fixes yields an initial
motion estimate of 315/04 kt. Javier is forecast to continue
moving northwestward around the western periphery of a weakening
mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States and
northern Mexico. The weak steering flow could result in some
erratic motion as Javier moves closer to southern Baja California
and interacts with the mountainous terrain. The new NHC track is
essentially just and update of the previous advisory track, which
takes Javier up the west side of the Baja California peninsula, and
lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN.

Aircraft flight-level data also revealed that dry mid-level air had
penetrated into the inner-core region, and this was probably the
main reason for the erosion of the deep convection in the
northeastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Although some
modest convection has recently developed in the southeastern
quadrant, it is less likely now that Javier will be able to sustain
any significant intensification due to the aforementioned dry
mid-level air and the small cyclone interacting with land through
most of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast closely
follows the consensus intensity model, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 22.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 23.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.3N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

Deep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and
the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.
It has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but
satellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near
or over the southern Baja California peninsula. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of the various T-
and CI-numbers yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. An automated
Mexican weather observing site near Cabo Pulmo on the southeastern
portion of Baja California has reported tropical storm force wind
gusts during the past few hours.

The small tropical cyclone appears to have succumb to the
effects of land interaction, northeasterly shear, and dry mid-level
air sooner than anticipated. As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted lower than the previous advisory and now
calls for additional weakening as Javier interacts with land and
moves into a more stable environment. Javier is forecast to weaken
to a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low on
Wednesday, however this could occur much earlier if organized
deep convection does not redevelop soon.

The initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt. Javier is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next day or so around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the south-central
United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
and the NHC forecast is near the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 23.3N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 25.6N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 26.6N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 27.2N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
600 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS THAT JAVIER HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 110.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Tropical Storm Watch for the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Javier
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 110.6 West. Javier
is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Javier is expected to move near or over Baja
California Sur through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Javier is forecast to become a remnant low
within the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure
of 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2
to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through
Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible.
Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and
New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of
up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The expected
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[stormwise]

http://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/getd ... docId/1700

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

The only areas of deep convection associated with Javier are some
small patches of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Baja
California peninsula. The cyclone is embedded within an air mass
that is forecast to become drier and more stable with time.
Therefore the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
within 24 hours, or sooner. The low is expected to dissipate over
the central Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period.

The center has become less defined but is believed to be located
just offshore between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro, and the
initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/6. Over the next
couple of days, Javier or its remnant low should continue to move
around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system.
The official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model
consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 23.8N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.8N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 26.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch