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Quite an interesting future for this system whether or not it gets absorbs into Conson...
A tropical disturbance is gradually moving westward from near
Pohnpei this evening. Convection near the center of the
disturbance will continue to affect Pohnpei thru Wednesday
afternoon. Shower coverage near Chuuk will also increase from
Wednesday morning thru Thursday night as the disturbance
approaches the island. Fresh converging southerly winds in the
wake of this disturbance will also trigger periodic showers and
thunderstorms near Kosrae thru Wednesday evening. Once this system
has pulled farther west, surface ridging to its east should bring
quieter weather for Kosrae on Thursday, Pohnpei on Friday and
possibly Chuuk this weekend.
Also there is a wild card system, a tropical
disturbance currently near Pohnpei. Models are absorbing it into
the flow of Tropical Storm Conson at 17N159E. However, the
tropical disturbance has been retaining its low-level structure so
far. If it develop further near Chuuk State, it can draw the
monsoon trough farther south than the model forecast. Therefore,
uncertainty still exist for the longer term forecast.
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