WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 AUG 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 18:12:51 N Lon : 156:24:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 996.5mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.1

Center Temp : -74.6C Cloud Region Temp : -55.5C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.7 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHEARED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE FROM THE 092253Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20 TO 25 KNOTS) PERSISTS OVER TS 08W, AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A REGION OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 08W CONTINUES TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT TAU 24 AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES EAST OF JAPAN AND TEMPORARILY ERODES THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STEERING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO THE
CONTINUING SHEAR AND RESTRICTED OUTFLOW, TS 08W IS FORECAST TO ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH TYPHOON INTENSITY BEING
REACHED AROUND TAU 48 WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BRIEFLY DECREASE.
C. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BEYOND TAU 72, BUT MOST SUGGEST A
SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AFTER THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY AND
THE STR BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. INCREASED SHEAR BEYOND
TAU 72 SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

10/0230 UTC   18.4N    155.7E       T3.5/3.5         CONSON -- West Pacific

[euro6208]

Seem to have developed a warm spot on multiple imageries. If so, it's getting underestimated big time.

[NotoSans]

Seem to have developed a warm spot on multiple imageries. If so, it's getting underestimated big time.

Probably just some overshooting tops. Microwave imagery shows it is still badly sheared.

[euro6208]

Damn it fell apart quickly

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM SOUTH
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101745Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE LIKEWISE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC
WITH DEEPER CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS PERSISTS
OVER TS 08W WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS FIRMLY ANCHORED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. TS 08W HAS BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
DECREASED DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF TS 08W.
B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO
THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
CONSENSUS BASED ON RECENT MOTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, SO SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST WITH A
PEAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 48 TO 72.
C. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT TS 08W WILL BRIEFLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD
FOLLOWED BY A RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WELL EAST OF MAINLAND
JAPAN. HOWEVER, EGRR IS WEST OF THE REST OF GUIDANCE, AND
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF TS 08W BEYOND
TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS BUT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT THE LATER TAUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL SPREAD.
BUT ASIDE FROM THE DETAILS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A RECURVE AS
TS 08W BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT AROUND TAU 120.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Conson's northwards acceleration might put the system more in line with the upper wind vector, but shear is definitely winning right now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA repeatedly forecast rapid intensification with this thing, they still expect a 20kts increase in next 24hrs which is very rare for them. No idea why they're so bullish on this storm, I just don't see it happening!

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM SOUTH
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BOTH ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 AND T2.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 102319Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW
TO THE NORTH OF TS 08W AND AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE SOUTHWEST ARE INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 08W IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING STR INDUCED BY THE PASSING OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
EXITING JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
OF CONSENSUS BASED ON RECENT MOTION WITH A SLOWER TURN TO THE NORTH.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY STILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR TERM, SO
SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST WITH A PEAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY TAU 36 TO 48. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON
WHETHER THE RECENT FLARING CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE THE PERSISTENT
SHEAR.
C. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, WITH ALL FORECASTING TS 08W TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
BUT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT THE LATER TAUS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN EAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN, WITH
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING AROUND TAU 96 AS THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 08W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW,
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TS 08W IN
THE NEAR TERM.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
SOUTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
MSI LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PUSHING THE LLCC
NORTHEASTWARD. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM CLOSER TO THE
LLCC JUST NORTHEAST OF CENTER AS THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT IS NOW IN
PHASE WITH THE MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); ALLEVIATING THE IMPACTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC, THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE AND HORIZONTAL
EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. TS 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK, SPECIFICALLY OVER THE FIRST 12 HOURS, HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT.
B. TS 08W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PRIOR TO TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
INTENSIFY AS VWS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE STORM THROUGHOUT ITS
LIFESPAN HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 72, TS 08W
WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT MOVES
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER,
GIVEN RECENT STORM MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
FURTHER BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COMPLETE ETT AS A WEAK
COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
SPREAD AT TAU 96 LEADING TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111731Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME DRY AIR CONTINUING TO IMPINGE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHT-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. TS 08W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PRIOR TO TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS VWS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE STORM
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER
TAU 48, TS 08W WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE NEAR TERM LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FURTHER
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COMPLETE ETT AS A WEAK COLD-CORE
LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGER (250 NM) RANGE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LEADING TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES, AND
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A 112349Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE REVEALS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ABSCENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
CONFIRMING 40 TO 45 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, AS WELL AS
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT-
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. TS 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS PRIOR TO TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS VWS WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
OF THE STORM THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, TS 08W WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE
FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NEAR TERM LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FURTHER
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COMPLETE ETT AS A WEAK COLD-CORE
LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGER (250 NM)
RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 96.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICIES ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER. CONVECTION STILL REMAINS SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE LOCATED
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTROID AND IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 40
KNOTS BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS WITH 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST
AND REFLECTS THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD (35-45 KNOTS). TS CONSON IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS; HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THAT SIDE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) NEAR 28 CELSIUS ARE STILL SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TS 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 48, TS 08W WILL MOVE
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH AN INCREASING
SPREAD AT TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM EXPANDS DUE TO THE ETT. BASED ON THE
TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT AND GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[kala]

WTPQ21 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1606 CONSON (1606)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 27.4N 155.8E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 32.8N 152.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 140600UTC 37.5N 148.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 150600UTC 46.4N 146.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 121653Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY
CURVED SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS A BROADENING RADIUS OF MAX WINDS WITH A
CORE OF 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. TS CONSON
REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LIGHT-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM.
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS ARE STILL
SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
SUPPORT A VERY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. TS 08W HAS TRANSITIONED TO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BETWEEN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH LOCATED
TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
VERY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, PRIOR TO
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 48, TS CONSON
WILL MOVE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST, AND BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS A WEAK COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING TO HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[kala]

Morning Conson! Looks pretty much done.

WTPQ21 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1606 CONSON (1606)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 29.6N 156.0E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 34.4N 151.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141800UTC 41.2N 146.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 151800UTC 50.5N 145.5E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

JMA no longer predicting severe tropical storm.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 807 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROADENING, NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 130410Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND
ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETRY DATA WHICH SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS
REMAINS, DESPITE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATES WHICH ARE NOT
REPRESENTATIVE. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
WITH HIGH (30+ KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM, AND DECREASING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS. THE MSI SIGNATURE AND AMSU
CROSS-SECTION SUGGEST CONSON WILL SOON BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. TS 08W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BETWEEN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH LOCATED
TO THE WEST. SSTS WILL DROP SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS A REMNANT LOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING TO HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[kala]

All of Conson's convection is gone.

[NotoSans]

08W CONSON 160813 1800 34.3N 152.1E WPAC 50 985

I'm glad that JTWC finally learns to take a look at ASCAT instead of blindly follows Dvorak.