BAY OF BENGAL: 95B INVEST

[stormwise]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/010230Z-011800ZAUG2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0N 90.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED BANDS OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING
IN THE MID-LEVELS. A 311742 METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF
LIMITED TROUGHING IN THE REGION WITH 20 KNOTS OF WIND. A 010011Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME. CURRENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS,
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. STRONGER
SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST AS THE
EASTERLY JET IS WELL ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER THERE IS NOTABLE
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Thinking it looks better on satellite than just a low chance.

[1900hurricane]

The Bay of Bengal is generally quite unfavorable this time of year with the tropical easterly jet atop monsoon southwesterlies providing extreme shear. While 95B did manage to acquire a broad monsoon depression type of circulation, the hostile conditions typical of the basin this time of year will in all likelihood prevent any further development.

[Alyono]

there may be a developing depression in the northern BOB now

[Darvince]

"invest"

[Alyono]

had it had another 24 hours over the water, I think we would have been seeing an eye with that

[euro6208]

TCFA alert canceled...It still looks very impressive overland...

[1900hurricane]

96B was organizing in a hurry. It certainly took advantage of that tiny spot at the north end of the Bay of Bengal not being blasted by the Tropical Easterly Jet. It was just too small of a space to intensify much before landfall (I do think 96B was worthy of classification though).



Also, this system is 96B, not 95B from a week or two earlier.

[stormwise]

just having a quick look at it i suspect its the same,looks to be just re-designated to 96.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... ARROW=next

[1900hurricane]

96B is well inland now and still looking very good.

[stormwise]

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