EPAC: EX-INVEST 94E

[hurricanes1234]

I was browsing the floaters page and stumbled upon this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/vis0.gif

I see it is also present in the Storm2k image:



Therefore we have Invest 94E? There's nothing being mentioned in the TWO, aside from an area expected to form in a few days with a 0%/20% chance.

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2016080912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1176W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016080918, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1177W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1178W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081006, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1182W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081012, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1184W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[hurricanes1234]

Hmmm so it became an invest before the NHC lemoned it.


Perhaps this may become the weak storm the models are forecasting for a little while now?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is drifting
northwestward. The low is forecast to merge with an area of
disturbed weather farther west later this week, and some slow
development of that system is possible by the weekend while it
moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro makes this a decent TS. Problem is it takes too long to consolidate while moving NW so by the time it develops it runs into high shear and decreasing SSTs.

[hurricanes1234]

Much like what Howard did.

[hurricanes1234]

But for this early stage it looks quite good IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area is forecast to form over the weekend while it
moves generally westward. Some subsequent development of this
system is possible by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kazmit]

The chances haven't increased since I first saw this. Looks like development could be slow on this one.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area could form over the weekend while the
disturbance moves generally westward. Some gradual development
is possible by early next week before the system moves into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Intensity models now bullish.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP942016  08/12/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    25    29    33    42    52    59    65    67    69    70    70
V (KT) LAND       20    22    25    29    33    42    52    59    65    67    69    70    70
V (KT) LGEM       20    21    21    23    24    27    32    38    42    47    51    55    61
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10     8     7     4     5     6     3     4     2     7     4     8     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -2    -3    -2    -3    -4    -4    -2    -3    -5    -5    -5    -3
SHEAR DIR         61    69    82    83    51    48   360    15   330    23    27    24    11
SST (C)         28.8  28.8  28.8  28.7  28.8  29.0  29.1  28.8  28.4  28.1  28.2  28.5  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   153   152   152   151   152   154   156   153   149   145   147   150   153
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1  -0.2  -0.2
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     5     5     5     6     6     6     6     7     7     8     8
700-500 MB RH     61    62    64    64    64    64    63    65    66    64    64    58    55
MODEL VTX (KT)     2     2     3     3     3     3     4     5     5     5     5     5     5
850 MB ENV VOR   -24   -20   -20   -12   -16   -15   -15    -6    -1     2    -4   -17   -25
200 MB DIV        54    41    44    43    37    23     9     7    44    52    28    19    -6
700-850 TADV       0     1     1     1     1     0     0     0     0     0     0    -2     1
LAND (KM)       2390  2448  2453  2357  2252  2057  1863  1659  1469  1266  1085   917   760
LAT (DEG N)     12.4  12.6  12.8  12.9  13.0  13.1  13.0  12.8  12.7  12.8  12.9  13.0  13.0
LONG(DEG W)    131.0 132.0 132.9 133.8 134.8 136.7 138.7 140.9 143.0 145.2 147.3 149.5 152.0
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     9     9     9     9    11    10    11    10    11    11    13
HEAT CONTENT      20    26    33    40    44    39    31    26    28    30    46    45    52

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  521  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            7.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   6.  14.  22.  28.  32.  34.  35.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   8.   9.   9.   9.  10.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   8.   8.   8.   8.   8.   8.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   9.  13.  22.  32.  39.  45.  47.  49.  50.  50.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   12.4   131.0

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST     08/12/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   132.2      40.3  to  144.5       0.88         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    32.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.43         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    16.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     6.6      18.9  to    1.4       0.70         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    43.8     -11.0  to  135.3       0.37         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    90.8     638.0  to  -68.2       0.77         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     1.2       2.1  to   -1.7       0.24         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     3.2%   17.4%   17.0%    4.5%    2.2%   20.1%   14.1%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    1.6%    0.4%    0.1%    0.0%    0.1%    0.2%
   Consensus:     1.1%    6.3%    5.8%    1.5%    0.7%    6.7%    4.8%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST     08/12/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kazmit]

Down to 0%/10% at latest update.

1. A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area could form over the weekend while the
disturbance moves generally westward. However, any subsequent
development of the low should be slow to occur before the system
moves into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Beven

[Kazmit]

Soon to move into the CPac.

[hurricanes1234]

Intensity-wise, what are the latest runs showing?

I just get the feeling this could pull another Ivette on us in the end.

[hurricanes1234]

The floater has been dropped!

[Yellow Evan]

Pretty sure this has been de-activated.

[hurricanes1234]

Percents have increased slightly despite no longer being officially an invest.

An area of disturbed weather is located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is moving
westward at about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Central
Pacific basin on Monday. Development, if any, of this system should
be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[hurricanes1234]

Chances now up to 20%/30%.

An area of disturbed weather is located about 1250 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is moving
westward at about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Central
Pacific basin on Monday. Development, if any, of this system should
be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Kingarabian]

Euro seems to make it a TD at least.