WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

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WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 2:34 am

96W INVEST 160902 0000 23.0N 123.3E WPAC 15 NA

Nothing from JTWC or JMA yet.
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:49 am

Image

Just east of Taiwan
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:38 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.4N 124.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 050532Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH BANDING BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MAINLAND JAPAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:39 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 052056
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 05/2030Z

C. 25.1N

D. 124.3E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...EXISTENCE OF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS AMBIGUOUS, WILL
BE REASSESSED WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. GREATER THAN 2/10
BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...WHISNANT
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:40 pm

Some models develops and aims for Japan again...

The EURO brings it over Tokyo...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby kala » Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:54 pm

We have Tropical Storm Malou:

WTPQ20 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1613 MALOU (1613) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 25.5N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 29.4N 131.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 080000UTC 33.9N 138.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 090000UTC 40.1N 145.5E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Image

It could approach typhoon strength, especially if it pulls off some crazy stuff like Namtheun.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Malou

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:21 pm

Well, this got named way faster than I expected.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:24 pm

Image

Now under a TCFA...

WTPN21 PGTW 060130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N 125.2E TO 31.5N 135.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 060100Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.3N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN, CONVERGENT FLANK OF THE LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KADENA AB
AND MIYAKOJIMA INDICATE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. A MINIMUM SLP OF 1003.8MB WAS OBSERVED AT
MIYAKOJIMA WHILE KADENA'S CURRENT SLP IS NEAR 1007MB WITH A 1.5MB 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH
BOTH SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT IS LOCATED ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 200MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS UNDER
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM
SST (29 TO 30C), GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
DAYS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM,
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HINDERED WITH A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070130Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:25 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 060040

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (W OF KADENA)

B. 06/0000Z

C. 26.70N

D. 126.15E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. NO DVORAK DUE TO LACK OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TO THE LLCC. PT AND MET ARE UNAVAILABLE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:31 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 060308
TCSWNP

A. MALOU (96W)

B. 06/0230Z

C. 26.8N

D. 126.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY LOOSE CLOUD LINES,
PROXIMITY LESS THAN 1.24 DG FROM CONVECTION, SMALL SIZE. PT=1.0. MET=1.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:38 am

TPPN10 PGTW 060923

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (INVEST)

B. 06/0900Z

C. 27.19N

D. 127.63E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

DREW
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:32 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.1N 125.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY
40 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN, CONVERGENT FLANK OF THE LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS SPARSE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KADENA AB AND
MIYAKOJIMA INDICATE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. A MINIMUM SLP OF 1003.8MB WAS OBSERVED AT
MIYAKOJIMA WHILE KADENA'S CURRENT SLP IS NEAR 1007MB WITH A 1.5MB 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH
BOTH SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT IS LOCATED ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 200MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS UNDER
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM
SST (29 TO 30C), GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
DAYS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM,
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HINDERED WITH A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:35 am

TXPQ29 KNES 060916
TCSWNP

A. MALOU (96W)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 27.7N

D. 127.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:36 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:42 am

995mb near Tokyo...

Image

GFS is just offshore...

Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:43 am

JMA up to 40 knots...
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:55 am

ASCAT from about 12 hours ago hasn't exactly sold me that this is worthy of being named. Maybe the upcoming passes will look better?

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:14 am

Not a direct hit, but for the time being, I'm heavily leaning towards the "this has no business being classified" camp.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:21 pm

looks like Colin
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:27 pm

Much better up to 1.0... :lol:

TPPN10 PGTW 062114

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NE OF KADENA)

B. 06/2050Z

C. 29.34N

D. 129.63E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1647Z 29.08N 129.07E AMS2
06/1839Z 29.28N 129.42E SSMI


MARTINEZ
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