WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 150633

A. TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 15/0600Z

C. 17.61N

D. 127.85E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[kala]

WTPQ22 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1616 MALAKAS (1616)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 17.4N 127.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 21.2N 124.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 170600UTC 25.2N 122.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 180600UTC 27.3N 123.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS A
150335Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE RISING
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, NOW REPORTING T4.5/4.5 (77
KNOTS), AND IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY A FORMING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE EAST CREATING A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY
TY MALAKAS IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INFLUENCE OUTFLOW ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GIVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 36 REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. FROM TAU 36
TO
72, TY MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR NORTHEASTERN TAIWAN. SLIGHT LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS BEYOND TAU 72, TY MALAKAS WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
INTO THE WESTERLY JET. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY AND SHOWS RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING IN TRACK SOLUTIONS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AND EXTENDED TRACK AS IT GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY JET. HOWEVER THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED, POSITION, AND TIMING OF THE TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

NAVGEM



CMC




EURO

[euro6208]

GFS

[1900hurricane]

Bombs away!

[1900hurricane]

Ominous.

[Dave C]

You can see it's starting that turn to the nw now. Small islands eat of Taiwan in the crosshairs next 24 to 36 hrs.

[euro6208]

PINHOLE!

[euro6208]

Ouch...Taipei!

WDPN33 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME
REPORTING AGENCIES, AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. TY 18W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. A SMALL, 4
NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST AND THE 36-HOUR INTENSITY TREND HAS INCREASED A BIT. OTHERWISE,
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM, FUELED BY
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST, AS WELL AS HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 48, TY 18W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BASED ON RECENT
AND EXPECTED MODEL ERROR TRENDS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER COOLER
WATER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD, PARTICULARLY THE DEPICTED TRACK
SPEEDS. THE CURRENT EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
CONSENSUS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the eyewall might have collapsed, or at least tried to reform slightly bigger. With Malakas now crossing 20*N, it's running out of time to get real intense.

[1900hurricane]

It's hard to tell since Malakas's core is right on the edge of the GPM pass, but it does look like a slighlty larger eyewall has redeveloped after the pinhole collapsed. That appears to line up with visible imagery.

[dexterlabio]

I believe all pinhole type typhoons are bound to get a larger, rounded one..given favorable conditions.

Taiwan is really having a pretty tough week..they had a Cat5 on the southern part, now this one's going to hit northern Taiwan.. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember most of the country's population is on the northern side.

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES, AS WELL AS A RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS. TY 18W HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
ORGANIZED, A 6 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE A LACK
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, STEADY TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST, AND PASSAGE
OVER A VERY WARM OCEAN SURFACE FUEL DEVELOPMENT. SOME WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 24 AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 48, TY 18W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS, TURN NORTHEASTWARD, AND BEGIN WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BASED ON RECENT AND
EXPECTED MODEL ERROR TRENDS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER COOLER
WATER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD, PARTICULARLY THE DEPICTED TRACK
SPEEDS. THE CURRENT EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CONSENSUS FORECAST. GIVEN
THE NOTED MODEL UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Ominous looking eye coming into view.

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM WITH A NEWLY FORMED
PINHOLE EYE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS WHICH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FILL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD REPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS T5.0 (90 KNOTS).
THE INITIAL WIND DISTRIBUTION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT DATA
OBTAINED FROM A 160155Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE EXTENT OF
THE 35 AND 50 KNOT WIND RADII TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY
MALAKAS IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REORIENT AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, ENHANCING OUTFLOW. THE
TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS TY MALAKAS ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AXIS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE, BUT
WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS THE WIND FIELD IS DISRUPTED FROM
LAND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING UNDER THE WESTERLY JET. SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 96
AND 120 TY MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36
GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS IN THE
SPEED AT WHICH TY MALAKAS WILL ADVANCE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

5.5 from JTWC and 6.0 from KNES.

TPPN10 PGTW 160911

A. TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 16/0830Z

C. 21.48N

D. 123.68E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE (NO ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG RING) YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET AND
PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT, AS DT IS NOT CLEAR CUT DUE TO OPENING
AND FILLING EYE, WITH DT'S RANGING FROM 5.0 TO 6.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ28 KNES 160927
TCSWNP

A. 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 16/0830Z

C. 21.5N

D. 123.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LG EYE EMBEDDED IN WHITE SURROUNDED BY WHITE FOR
DT=6.0. MET=5.5 AND PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Dave C]

Latest Taiwan radar image showing outer eyewall taking over, inner eyewall weakening.

[euro6208]

What weakening? The pinhole eye is more robust and i don't see any weakening. Outer eyewall is nonexistant...

[Dave C]

What weakening? The pinhole eye is more robust and i don't see any weakening. Outer eyewall is nonexistant...

Didn't say the storm was weakening, If you run a loop you can see some evidence of an outer eyewall, it's probably too far from radar site to show it clearly but there seems to be one.The radar from JMA is beginning to pick up the storm and should be in better range in 6 hrs. or so.