ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#661 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:16 am

This year's storms are a perfect example of why recon is still so necessary. We seem to have very little handle on strength of systems without flying into them.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#662 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:29 am

Bermuda's under a tropical storm watch. It probably won't be too bad for them but the NHC mentions that they could experience the western edge of the TS-force wind field.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#663 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:04 pm

Completely unsurprisingly, it looks like Karl is a solid tropical storm per recon.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#664 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:18 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:Completely unsurprisingly, it looks like Karl is a solid tropical storm per recon.

That's probably why the Bermuda Weather Service just issued a Tropical Storm Warning.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#665 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:47 pm

As Karl gets its act together hopefully it's wind radii contracts as it speeds up. Bermuda should be perfectly fine with the level of warning they raised. Here's to the beggining of hybrid frontal storm(s). Have a feeling there will be a few Nor Easter's this year.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#666 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 22, 2016 4:26 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#667 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 4:30 pm

here webcam from Bermuda http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#668 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2016 4:44 pm

Karl is once again a Tropical Storm (pretty obvious on visible satellite loops that it has been for the past few hours):

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT KARL IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 63.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#669 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 22, 2016 4:49 pm

floridasun78 wrote:here webcam from Bermuda http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

Thanks for sharing that. I've used it before when Joaquin hit them and it's fun to watch.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#670 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 22, 2016 7:23 pm

The maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#671 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:01 pm

Apparently still working out a little dry air, but definitely a slow strengthening trend.
Wind field on the weaker NW side of the storm probably won't extend out very far.

I think since the shear let up this slow development will continue.
Last edited by Nimbus on Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#672 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:02 pm

Is this a REAL intensification trend though or another false start? There have been several of them this week. But this is the best Karl has looked yet.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#673 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is this a REAL intensification trend though or another false start? There have been several of them this week. But this is the best Karl has looked yet.


I would say it's the real deal this time, though likely slow--unlike the past few attempts, recon wasn't there to confirm what was actually happening, and the shear analysis was underestimated--in this instance we have both confirmed so while there may still be some center reformation closer to the convection, the most favorable conditions are likely starting to arrive now.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#674 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:38 pm

To think this storm has been alive for almost 9 days now. Imagine what the ACE could have been like if it actually had gotten it's act together sooner.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#675 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:02 pm

Karl prevails. Not surprised by it.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#676 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:16 am

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

The cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours
ago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still
located on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is
more symmetric, and the outflow is better defined. Tonight's
upward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated
minimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous
reports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb. A
NOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level
wind of 61 kt. These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt.

Karl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of
days while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear.
After that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic
mid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful
extratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a
much larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar
to the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone
in the short term based on the initial intensity and the current
organization trend.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of
325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of
the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to
turn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl
is forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow
ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a
sharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
new track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer
to Bermuda in about 24 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of
the tightly packed model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 27.9N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 31.5N 64.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 37.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 48.0N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE


$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#677 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:17 am

Karl's maximum sustained winds have now increased to 60 mph.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#678 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:31 am

abajan wrote:Karl's maximum sustained winds have now increased to 60 mph.

This situation is looking a lot like Fay from 2 years ago. A strengthening storm heading right at Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#679 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:15 am

Image
Karl finally getting serious, and to the naked eye it looks as though it may have taken a little jog west.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#680 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:29 am

Karl has a nice structure this morning. I would say is the best looking non hurricane tropical cyclone of the season.
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