ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

I'm going to predict that .... this thread will finish with fewer pages than Matthew.

Excellent prediction!

[Hammy]

First time checking the weather today, honestly expected this to be a low cloud swirl and instead it's a tropical storm. Doing quite well despite being so close to Matthew's massive outflow.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

...NICOLE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 61.1W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 61.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 61.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today.
All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle
of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly
strong northwesterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 45
kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data. Nicole
is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next
several days, which should eventually result in weakening. The
official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of
days, to the southwest of a mid-level high. Later in the forecast
period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and
this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days. The
official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction.
This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few
days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[HurricaneRyan]

For what it is, she looks better than some other sheared storms we've had this year.

[SouthDadeFish]

Holding its own (for now) in the midst of some decent shear:



I doubt it can last too much longer.

[hurricanehunter69]

As soon as Matt moves away and the shear relaxes.....hmmm Add me to the camp for forecasting Nicole to become a Major Hurricane.

[Macrocane]

I'm not sure if Nicole will be a major but I do belive it will reach cat 1 at least.
It's 2016 after all, systems expected to strenghten have struggled and vice versa.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow, not bad. That's what I get for writing off this storm!

[tolakram]

There's another storm? Nicole?

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=24&lon=-63&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[Alyono]

Look what the UKMET says... it says this will linger and loop just like Matthew

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 61.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2016 0 24.1N 61.2W 1005 46
1200UTC 05.10.2016 12 25.0N 62.6W 1002 47
0000UTC 06.10.2016 24 26.0N 64.0W 998 50
1200UTC 06.10.2016 36 27.2N 65.4W 997 50
0000UTC 07.10.2016 48 27.8N 66.1W 998 48
1200UTC 07.10.2016 60 27.8N 66.6W 999 42
0000UTC 08.10.2016 72 27.0N 66.8W 999 38
1200UTC 08.10.2016 84 25.7N 66.8W 998 35
0000UTC 09.10.2016 96 24.5N 67.2W 996 39
1200UTC 09.10.2016 108 23.6N 68.2W 995 44
0000UTC 10.10.2016 120 23.0N 69.1W 992 48
1200UTC 10.10.2016 132 22.5N 70.2W 993 51
0000UTC 11.10.2016 144 22.7N 71.1W 992 48

[AJC3]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

...NICOLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 61.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward
the north by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely during the next day or
so, but slow weakening is forecast after that time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
0300 UTC WED OCT 05 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.1N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.5N 63.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.7N 64.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.5N 64.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.3N 63.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 62.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 61.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

Nicole has developed a comma-shaped cloud pattern this evening, with
the low-level center estimated to be about midway between the end of
a long curved band and the end of an associated dry slot. Dvorak
classifications are T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and thus the
initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

Although over waters around 29 deg C during the next few days,
Nicole is forecast to be affected by strong northwesterly to
northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Matthew to
its east. While the shear may not be strong enough to induce much
weakening, it very likely would prevent Nicole from intensifying.
By about 72 hours, the northerly shear should further increase, and
it is possible that Nicole would degenerate into a remnant low by
that time or shortly thereafter. The new intensity forecast is
identical to the previous one, and is close to the statistical
model output that shows no change in strength through 36 hours and
then weakening. Nicole is shown to maintain tropical cyclone status
throughout the forecast period out of respect for the ECMWF
solution, which shows this possibility.

The initial motion is 300/05. Nicole is expected to move
west-northwestward and then northward around a mid-level high
located east of Bermuda for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a
mid-tropospheric cyclone near the northeastern United States coast
is forecast to dive southeastward toward Nicole, which should cause
the cyclone to turn eastward or even southeastward from 72-96
hours. Should the cyclone survive, a turn toward the north is
likely by 120 hours ahead of another shortwave trough moving of the
United States east coast. The new track forecast is shifted to
the east after 36 hours in response to the track guidance, which has
moved in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 24.2N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 25.1N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 26.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 27.7N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 28.5N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 28.3N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 28.3N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016

Nicole continues to hold its strength despite strong wind shear.
Satellite images show a rather robust circulation, with a small area
of deep convection near the center and a larger band to the east of
the center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, based on Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nicole is expected to remain in
strong wind shear conditions caused by the outflow of Hurricane
Matthew during the next few days, which should prevent the
storm from strengthening. Beyond that time, Nicole is expected to
interact with a mid- to upper-level low and could acquire some
subtropical cyclone characteristics this weekend. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one beyond 36 hours to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance, which generally
shows Nicole staying relatively steady state through the period.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt on the
southwest side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the northwest is
likely later today followed by a northward motion in 36 to 48 hours
as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge. After that
time, a slow and erratic motion is expected as Nicole interacts with
the cut off upper-level low. The NHC track forecast closely follows
a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is fairly similar to
the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 24.3N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 26.8N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 27.7N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[txwatcher91]

Impressive flare up with Nicole today. Small, compact storm.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=25&lon=-64&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/783753516644982784

[zeehag]

am i the only one o see the eye nicole flashed on my way here via goes to see what is cooking?? damn, that girl is pre koh shuss.... was a goes thing i saw-- please tell me no one spiked my jamaica water.... this misadventure series in caribbean makes me really reallly glad i am stuck here in mexico with only the likes of patricia to bother my life. wow this is impressive mayhem.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016

A 1846 UTC SSMI microwave pass showed that Nicole has a
well-defined mid-level eye with the deepest convection to the
southeast of the center. Nicole's visible satellite presentation
has also improved, and there has been a recent burst of convection
right over the center. Dvorak intensity estimates are now T3.0
from SAB and T3.5 from TAFB, so the initial intensity is raised to
50 kt. It's often difficult to estimate the strength of small
cyclones like Nicole based on satellite alone, and it's possible
that the intensity could be higher.

As discussed this morning, Nicole is located beneath an upper-level
shear axis, so the vertical shear directly over the cyclone is
actually not that high. Since Nicole could stay in this type of
environment for another 12-24 hours, and due to the cyclone's small
size, the maximum winds could increase in the short term. The new
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous forecast during
the first 24 hours, and it is above all of the guidance during that
period. In fact, it would not be surprising if Nicole was to
become a hurricane some time soon, especially since it already has a
eye in microwave imagery. After 24 hours, a larger area of strong
upper-level winds should overspread Nicole, and the maximum winds
should therefore decrease through the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion remains 300/7 kt. Nicole's forward motion is
expected to slow down to a crawl by 36 hours, and after that
time, there is considerable spread in the guidance. For example,
by day 5, the ECMWF pulls Nicole well northward, absorbed by
Matthew and a nearby frontal zone, while the UKMET, HWRF, and GFDN
models push Nicole southward or southwestward. Given this
uncertainty, the NHC track forecast continues to show a slow
meandering motion on days 2-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 25.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.3N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 27.4N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 27.9N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 27.7N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 27.0N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[EquusStorm]

Up to 50kt this advisory, forecast peak at 60kt, and the discussion notes that hurricane intensity would not be too surprising before conditions become less favorable. Pretty impressive.

[CrazyC83]

I'd have gone 60 kt given the eye structure and Dvorak's poor record with small storms. Certainly could become a hurricane.

[Kazmit]

Nicole is becoming less of a fail than I thought. A hurricane seems quite likely. Not sure how much it'll affect Bermuda after it meanders for a few days.