ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 64.9 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering
motion is forecast tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely over
the nest day or so, followed by slow weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane.
The system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this
morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images. The
intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt. Since
the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional
strengthening seems likely. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to
increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2
models thereafter.

Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous
regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.
Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to
24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next
several days.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Is a Hurricane

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[Hammy]

I'm not surprised it's 80 mph, but I'm surprised a special advisory was issued given there is no land threat.

[TimeZone]

Extremely impressive little storm.

[HurricaneRyan]

Nicole proving to be a mini-surprise. I'm sure a lot of people thought it would be another weak storm.

October is definitely bringing more quality than September and August were.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm not surprised it's 80 mph, but I'm surprised a special advisory was issued given there is no land threat.

I'd say its more like getting it done and out of the way so they can focus more on pending matters at 5p

[CrazyC83]

12Z GFS brings Nicole over Bermuda as a major hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say Nicole is closer to about 85 kt looking at it.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
300 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...3 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A NOAA station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama recently reported
a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph
(78 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at Lake Worth Pier,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and
a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 78.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Macrocane]

I'm not sure if Nicole will be a major but I do belive it will reach cat 1 at least.
It's 2016 after all, systems expected to strenghten have struggled and vice versa.

Told you so, it's 2016

[Macrocane]

Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt

Sounds familiar

Matthew has continued to intensify this morning...This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt.

[galaxy401]

Category 2 now is possible for this overachiever.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern has continued to increase in organization
this afternoon. A small central dense overcast has become even more
symmetric during the last few hours, with an eye intermittently
visible. Dvorak classifications of T4.5 from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT
values support increasing the intensity to 75 kt.

Nicole is being affected by northerly shear associated with outflow
of Hurricane Matthew, but it is suspected that this shear is
confined to a narrow layer at upper levels since the cyclone has
been unexpectedly strengthening. Given the current trends,
additional intensification seems possible, at least during the short
term. However, a mid- to upper-level trough digging over the central
Atlantic should cause the shear over Nicole to greatly increase in 1
to 2 days and result in some weakening. There could also be some
interaction of Nicole with a piece of the trough that breaks off in
2 to 3 days, as shown in the global models, but it is unclear how
this could affect its intensity. The large-scale environment
is forecast to potentially become more conducive for re-
intensification by days 4 or 5, and some restrengthening is shown
around that time. The new intensity forecast is above the
multi-model consensus and higher than the previous one at the end
of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 330/06. Steering currents are likely
to collapse very soon as Nicole finds itself in a col area, making
an erratic northward motion likely for the next 12 hours or so. A
blocking ridge in the wake of the aforementioned trough should then
impart a slow southerly motion for a couple of days. By 72 hours, a
turn back toward the northwest or north-northwest is forecast as a
mid-level high builds to the east of Nicole. Although there is
considerable spread in the model guidance, this general scenario is
shown except for the ECMWF, which is well to the right of the other
model solutions through the next 3 days. The new track forecast is
of low confidence, is faster than the previous one, and is between
the previous forecast and an average of the ECMWF/GFS output.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 27.5N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 27.6N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.4N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 27.4N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 29.4N 67.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[ohitsdatguy]

5 pm advisory expects this to become a strong cat 2 some time early tomorrow morning. Amazing to see out of a storm that no one expected to become anything more than a weak TS.

[abajan]

5 pm advisory expects this to become a strong cat 2 some time early tomorrow morning. Amazing to see out of a storm that no one expected to become anything more than a weak TS.

Just over 30 hours ago, the NHC discussion stated that Nicole's strength was thought to have peaked at 50 mph. Now it's expected to peak at 100 mph!

[Hammy]

Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt

Sounds familiar

Matthew has continued to intensify this morning...This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt.

After all the talk of sheared messes the last few years, it looks like they're developing an immunity to wind shear now.

[abajan]

Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt

Sounds familiar

Matthew has continued to intensify this morning...This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt.

After all the talk of sheared messes the last few years, it looks like they're developing an immunity to wind shear now.

Heck, I think they've developed a liking for shear!

[hurricanehunter69]

I'm not sure if Nicole will be a major but I do belive it will reach cat 1 at least.
It's 2016 after all, systems expected to strenghten have struggled and vice versa.

I liked Nicole's chances to stack up and fight off shear because it was just sitting there. I think intensity forecasts are underestimated for stationary systems.

[Exalt]

Could we get a major out of Nicole? Storms really seem to be defying all of the norms this year, starting all the way back with January Alex and frankenstein-esque Bonnie..

[1900hurricane]

Here comes the eye. I think a major hurricane is a very real possibility.