WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 2:37 am

207
WWPQ80 PGUM 140650
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM CHST FRI OCT 14 2016

PMZ161-PMZ171-142200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
500 PM CHST FRI OCT 14 2016

...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REMAINS OVER EASTERN YAP STATE...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR
7N145E REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

THE DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED...

ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP.

THE DISTURBANCE IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR
WHILE INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
THE COMING DAYS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS OF FAIS...ULITHI
AND YAP. WINDS REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT IN HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTS
IN SOME OF THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30
MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW PRIMARILY IN EASTERN YAP STATE AND
MAINLY WITHIN ABOUT 200 MILES OF THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE.
SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MICRONESIA THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE. ALSO...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY BECAUSE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR THE DISTURBANCE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.
TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD BE VERY CAREFULLY PLANNED IN THE COMING DAYS.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

EDSON
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:41 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 145.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 380
NM SOUTH OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140424Z SSMI 89 GHZ IMAGE BOTH DEPICT BROAD TURNING
WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 5 TO 10 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IMPROVING DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A POINT
SOURCE SITUATED OVER A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF CONVECTION. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE MODERATE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE
NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:18 am

If the convective cluster nearest the center can maintain itself, I'd probably go ahead with a renumber at 18Z.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:20 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:35 pm

Ah much weaker on this run. First run showing it to not peak under -900mb. Still rather strong at landfall...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:44 pm

25W TWENTYFIVE 161014 1800 7.9N 144.4E WPAC 30 1001

25W is here.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:09 pm

Image

:eek:

WDPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 141703Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONVECTIVE NOTCH WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. TD 25W IS DEVELOPING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH.
TD 25W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TO GO THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE
SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL STEERING PATTERN AND SUPPORTS THE NEAR TERM TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 25W WILL REACH SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. A STRONGER
STR TO THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN
INITIAL WARNING WITH ONLY A 200NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE EXPANSIVE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE MAY BE ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN
THE NEAR TERM AS IT CONSOLIDATES WHICH LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 25W

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:38 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 150024

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SE OF YAP)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 8.84N

D. 143.26E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 3.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/1846Z 8.30N 144.20E SSMS
14/2040Z 7.92N 144.43E WIND
14/2104Z 7.95N 144.37E SSMS


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 25W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:14 pm

25W TWENTYFIVE 161015 0000 8.5N 143.2E WPAC 40 993

Upgraded to TS.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 25W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:17 pm

NWS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP AND WOLEAI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI...AND
YAP.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Haima

#31 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:28 pm

JMA has upgraded to Tropical Storm Haima. Their first forecast is also very aggressive.

Image

TS 1622 (Haima)
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 15 October 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 15 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°55' (7.9°)
E144°20' (144.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°10' (9.2°)
E142°30' (142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40' (10.7°)
E140°10' (140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°20' (13.3°)
E136°50' (136.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35' (15.6°)
E132°30' (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:49 pm

Structure on visible imagery already looks quite good. Haima has several prominent inflow bands.

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:25 pm

I have a feeling that Haima would turn out to be the "Zeb / Megi" of 2016
Its circulation is very expansive.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:11 pm

35 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 142104Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 142331Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A DEFINED
LLCC WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TS 25W
IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5- 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. TS HAIMA IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AND REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY UNDER THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. A STRONGER STR TO THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE CONTINUED
MODEL STABILITY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:08 pm

1900hurricane wrote:It looks like thee has been one track that has been optimized for maximum potential intensity. If a typhoon can manage to develop around 10*N to the south of Guam and then track towards Luzon, it will be tracking over a maximum in both surface temperatures and heat content. 96W looks like it will track a little north of this area, but it's something to watch going later into the season. That is a climatologically favored track for October.

Image

Image

I made this post a few weeks back in the WPac thread. It looks like Haima may end up following this track almost exactly.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:29 pm

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 150344
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252016
200 PM CHST SAT OCT 15 2016

...25W BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HAIMA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP AND WOLEAI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 143.4E

ABOUT 80 MILES WEST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIMA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
143.4 DEGREES EAST. HAIMA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. HAIMA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM AND 75 MILES OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. HAIMA IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM TONIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:55 am

Image

Category 5 at labdfall .

WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM
EAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
150544Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE
STORM. TS 25W IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH.
TS HAIMA IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AT 135 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 140
KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 115 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:03 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:11 am

00z Euro slams this hard into Cagayan Province then moves it dangerously close to Pearl River Delta
Image

06Z GFS misses the Northeastern tip of Luzon then recurves it in Fujian province

00z NAVGEM - looks a lot like GFS but a little bit north - rakes Batanes Group

00z CMC - entirely different, recurves it before hitting Taiwan (Hualien)
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:32 am

Convection is very cold.

Image
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