WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:40 am

Image
Microwave eye feature. Haima should become a typhoon soon.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2016 11:27 am

That microwave pass confirms my suspicions that Haima's center is indeed near the west side of the eastern CDO type feature. I'm thinking rapid intensification is a near certainty.

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Oct 15, 2016 11:38 am

NRL has Haima becoming a super typhoon at 160g195MPH. Agreed that RI is ongoing.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:49 pm

GFS showing pressures >880mb. Wow. Could be one hell of a monster.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 3:51 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST
OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AGENCY POSITION FIXES WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. TS 25W IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE
PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AT 135 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 140
KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 115 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 3:55 pm

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 151908
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (25W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252016
500 AM CHST SUN OCT 16 2016

...TROPICAL STORM HAIMA WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO ULITHI IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 140.3E

ABOUT 20 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIMA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.3 DEGREES EAST. HAIMA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. HAIMA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. HAIMA IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1100 AM.

$$

STANKO
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:01 pm

Gonna be a hit or miss as it skirts Luzon... :eek:

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:03 pm

Extreme high OHC lies in the path...150-200 where models bomb it out.

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:04 pm

Image

Should be upgraded.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:36 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:51 pm

I remember reading in PI folk law quite a long time ago the storms that originated from around the marshal islands late season were the ones they most feared.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2016 6:05 pm

Structure continues to be great. A banding eye has become apparent on visible imagery.

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 15, 2016 6:13 pm

The NE Luzon coastline is not capable of having high storm surge like that observed from Haiyan in Leyte and Samar. This part of the world is not new to Cat4-5's, but never have I heard those areas suffering from storm surge.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 6:16 pm

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 152153
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252016
800 AM CHST SUN OCT 16 2016

...TROPICAL STORM HAIMA IS PASSING VERY CLOSE TO ULITHI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 139.9E

ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 395 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIMA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
139.9 DEGREES EAST. HAIMA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. HAIMA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. HAIMA IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM
THE CENTER OF THE STORM.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 152252
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (25W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
852 AM CHST SUN OCT 16 2016

...TROPICAL STORM HAIMA PASSING VERY CLOSE TO ULITHI...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP...FAIS AND ULITHI.

.WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIMA
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 139.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULITHI...ABOUT 50 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FAIS AND ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH AND WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

...FAIS...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. SMALL
CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT.

....WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL TURN SOUTH AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
FALLING BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
ONE TO TWO FEET OF INUNDATION IS LIKELY. SURF WILL BE DANGEROUS
AT 13 TO 16 FEET ALONG NORTH...WEST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
FAIS.

&&

...ULITHI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. SMALL
CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT.

....WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55 TO 75 MPH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT BE BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY UNTIL
EARLY TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
ONE TO TWO FEET OF INUNDATION IS LIKELY. SURF WILL BE DANGEROUS
AT 13 TO 16 FEET ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
ULITHI.

&&

...YAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT.

....WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL TURN WEST AND INCREASE TO 25
TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY MONDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
ONE FOOT OF INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE. SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 9 TO
13 FEET ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS SUNDAY. DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR YAP.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ON TROPICAL STORM HAIMA WILL BE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$


ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2016 6:22 pm

Image

The whole cloud extent is larger than the entire Philippine archipelago.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:04 pm

dexterlabio wrote:The NE Luzon coastline is not capable of having high storm surge like that observed from Haiyan in Leyte and Samar. This part of the world is not new to Cat4-5's, but never have I heard those areas suffering from storm surge.


Not hyping here but there has been some really bad one's with relentless surge such as PEPANG 2009.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:07 pm

dexterlabio wrote:The NE Luzon coastline is not capable of having high storm surge like that observed from Haiyan in Leyte and Samar. This part of the world is not new to Cat4-5's, but never have I heard those areas suffering from storm surge.


Cat 5s that managed to strike the Mainland NE Luzon includes:

Sty Gordon - July 15, 1989 - Cagayan -140 knots
Sty Elsie - October 19,1989 - Dinapigue, Isabela - 140 knots
Sty Zeb - October 14, 1998 - Palanan, Isabela - 155 knots
Sty Megi - October 18, 2010 - Palanan/ Divilacan, Isabela - 150 knots


* Noul (May 10, 2015) almost made the list, the eye scraped the NE tip of Luzon but the center of the eye ramained offshore.

* Typhoon Sally (September 8,1964) also missed the NE tip of Luzon Mainland but managed to make landfall over Calayan and Dalupiri island as 140 knots Supertyphoon.

* Typhoon Sally missed the NE tip of Luzon on September 7, 1996 (This one is spooky -same name, intensity, landfall point and month with 1964 Sally) but made landfall over Dalupiri island (based on JTWCbest track) as 140 knots Supertyphoon.

* There are lots of high-end cat 4 landfalls in NE Luzon

I think NE Luzon is more prone to high surf than storm surge due to the inclination of sea floor.
Siera Madre Mountains lie just beside the coast.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:06 pm

25W HAIMA 161016 0000 10.1N 139.5E WPAC 65 985

Upgraded to a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:07 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 160019

A. TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA)

B. 16/0000Z

C. 10.09N

D. 139.55E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AGREES WITH DT WHILE
PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1832Z 10.13N 140.17E SSMS


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:08 pm

TXPQ27 KNES 152132
TCSWNP

A. 25W (HAIMA)

B. 15/2100Z

C. 10.0N

D. 140.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED CDO GREATER THAN 2 1/4 DEGREES WITH NO
ADJUSTMENT FOR BANDING FOR DT=5.0. MET=4.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES
IN FT TO 1 OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/1832Z 9.8N 140.1E SSMIS


...LEE
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