WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#121 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:40 am

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#122 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:03 am

The intensity forecast is going to bust big time.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#123 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:58 am

Not that I'm nitpicking, but it seems like Haima does not have intense feeder bands. Although the CDO is humongous.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#124 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:19 am

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looks to have expanded in the past two hours.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#125 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:21 am

I'd still like to see a true poleward outflow channel open up. Haima did have one before, so it could reestablish. But dang, this is getting very intense.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#126 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:56 am

TPPN12 PGTW 180918

A. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA)

B. 18/0900Z

C. 15.53N

D. 129.89E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AGREES WITH DT, WHILE PT IS HELD AT
6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:04 am

Wow. Finally without recon. Presentation looks good enough for a Cat 5 when it was one hours ago and it's still strengthening. Obliging by the rules. :lol:

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#128 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:41 am

:eek:



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2016 Time : 104000 UTC
Lat : 15:38:54 N Lon : 129:27:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 915.3mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : -0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 158km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.6 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#129 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:53 am

Now a category 5!! :eek:

25W HAIMA 161018 1200 15.8N 129.0E WPAC 140 918
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#130 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:56 am

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#131 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:04 am

Could be 145 to 160 knots now.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#132 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:11 am

Low level inflow has started reaching the northeastern tip of Luzon.
Image
Just before dusk @Nangaramoan Beach, Santa Ana, Cagayan

I talked to some locals earlier and I was surprised that their most recent "truly memorable" typhoon was Typhoon Nuri 2008 -(PAGASA NAME: KAREN)
According to them, Nuri was bad because they lived with no electricity for almost a month.
Typhoons Nanmadol and Noul seemed insignificant to them - they barely remembered those two.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#133 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:12 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2016 Time : 114000 UTC
Lat : 15:30:17 N Lon : 129:01:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 909.2mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +9.7C Cloud Region Temp : -82.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 158km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.8 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#134 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:19 am

Getting Super Typhoon Haiyan vibes o.o This is turning terrifying fast.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#135 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:26 am

Both the JMA and JTWC agree on T7.0/7.0 at 12Z.

TPPN12 PGTW 181223

A. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA)

B. 18/1200Z

C. 15.60N

D. 129.10E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AGREES WITH DT, WHILE PT REMAINS 6.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#136 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:27 am

Looks to be about 150 kt now - and still intensifying.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#137 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:30 am

Just realized this. HAIYAN... HAIMA... HAI... both Supers. (gulp)
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#138 Postby ThetaE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:32 am

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Impressive loop of the 4th category 5 typhoon of the season.

(I mean, they don't use the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but...)
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#139 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:03 am

Oh my god..... :eek: :eek: :eek:

TY 1622 (Haima)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 18 October 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N15°35' (15.6°)
E129°05' (129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 19 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E126°20' (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 19 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°00' (17.0°)
E123°35' (123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00' (19.0°)
E118°05' (118.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40' (22.7°)
E114°35' (114.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#140 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:04 am

JMA brings Haima to the Dapeng Peninsula as a 75-knot typhoon. If the forecast track verifies Haima will definitely pose a significant threat to Hong Kong.
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