2016 EPAC Season
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but with the current onset of La Niña conditions, isn't the likelihood of the EPAC getting anything beyond weak/moderate storms before the season's end greatly reduced?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
For the past few runs, the GFS has been hinting on a plethora of competing vorts'. Wouldn't be surprised to see another long tracker or multiple systems.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
Much like how a couple weeks ago it hinted at multiple storms in the EPAC and CPAC, out of which we got multiple invests instead.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
hurricanes1234 wrote:Much like how a couple weeks ago it hinted at multiple storms in the EPAC and CPAC, out of which we got multiple invests instead.
Signal is much stronger now. Lot's of members from the GEFS and EPS are onboard for decent tropical genesis.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
Two new mentions today, apart from dormant 99E. I have a feeling the Gulf of Tehuantepec one has a greater chance of developing.
2. A weak low pressure system located about 825 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level
winds are only marginally conducive and any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next several days while
the low drifts northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
3. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of
this disturbance is possible over the weekend while the system moves
to the west-northwest at about 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level
winds are only marginally conducive and any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next several days while
the low drifts northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
3. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of
this disturbance is possible over the weekend while the system moves
to the west-northwest at about 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
Euro and GFS have been brutal this past week. Both showing development run after run yet nothing has materialized.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:Euro and GFS have been brutal this past week. Both showing development run after run yet nothing has materialized.
If anything, that area in the far eastern Pacific has the greatest chance IMO. Or an alternative is it pulls a 99E and just sits in open water for days without any development.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
I honestly didn't expect the strongest storm of the season to occur this long after the activity died down.
The EPAC finally gets some activity this month and it's a big one.
The EPAC finally gets some activity this month and it's a big one.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
EPAC wants some November recognition too.
An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Although environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this
system during the next few days, they could become more favorable
this weekend while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Although environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this
system during the next few days, they could become more favorable
this weekend while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
I guess that's for the area currently being given a 0/20% chance.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
In that model run an extratropical system headed south off of California, developed subtropical characteristics, then weakened and moved inland again as an extratropical system in southern California.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
Models showing anything before the season doses off one last time?
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
hurricanes1234 wrote:Models showing anything before the season doses off one last time?
Latest GFS develops something in the far extreme part of the basin.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
A little something appears.
A small area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it
turns northwestward and moves into a region of stronger upper-level
winds later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it
turns northwestward and moves into a region of stronger upper-level
winds later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
With the 2016 season basically finished, here are our preliminary numbers, pending certain TCRs which could potentially change the numbers:
22 named storms (including ATL-EPAC crossover Otto)
13 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
There is a chance, albeit small, that Orlene could be revised to a major hurricane, in which the number of major hurricanes would hit 7.
Indeed, a very busy season continuing the streak of intense EPAC activity which began in 2014.
22 named storms (including ATL-EPAC crossover Otto)
13 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
There is a chance, albeit small, that Orlene could be revised to a major hurricane, in which the number of major hurricanes would hit 7.
Indeed, a very busy season continuing the streak of intense EPAC activity which began in 2014.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season
Here is my data for the 2016 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season so far. All data is based on working best track numbers except 01E, Agatha, Estelle, and Frank, whose numbers are based on finalized best track data provided by their tropical cyclone reports.
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