EPAC: INVEST 90E

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hurricanes1234
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EPAC: INVEST 90E

#1 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:07 pm

This invest has been around for a day or two. In fact it's surprisingly close to being declared now. But it shouldn't last too long, assuming it does develop, due to problems with shear.

90E INVEST 161020 1800 13.3N 114.2W EPAC 30 1006

A small, well-defined low pressure area centered about 700 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm
activity. Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive
for further development, only a small increase in the organization
of the thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone before upper-level winds become too strong for
formation. The low is expected to drift northward or northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 6:48 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a small, well-defined low pressure area centered about 700
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Although upper-level winds are not particularly
conducive for further development, only a small increase in the
organization of the thunderstorm activity could result in the
formation of a tropical cyclone before upper-level winds become
too strong for formation. The low is expected to drift northward
or northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 21, 2016 7:02 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure area
centered about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become less organized since
yesterday. The low still has a chance to become a tropical
depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds become
too strong for formation. This system is expected to drift
northward or northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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