WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

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RockyRobbie85
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#221 Postby RockyRobbie85 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:37 pm

Big Gusts are now reaching Hong Kong - Yeeeehaaaaaa
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Some people just like to sit back and watch the world burn :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#222 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:51 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE
FIX, A 202304Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG.
THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TY 25W HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A
LARGE (40 NM) EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY HAS
REMAINED CONSTANT UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
THE BROAD STORM STRUCTURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF HONG KONG WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. NEGLIGIBLE INTENSITY
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY RAPID
DISSIPATION OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

#223 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 23, 2016 11:12 am

Lowest pressure recorded near Shanwei was 972 mb if I remember correctly. The Dongsha Atoll recorded a minimum pressure of 969 mb about nine hours before landfall.
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