WPAC: MEARI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: MEARI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2016 10:23 pm

1900hurricane,what was 97W is now 90W so I am making a new thread.

90W INVEST 161029 0000 11.0N 154.0E WPAC 15
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:10 pm

Peak at 966mb.

Image

Out to sea south of Japan.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:11 pm

90W INVEST 161029 1800 10.7N 150.6E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:20 pm

12Z GFS no longer develops this. What a contrast when both models were showing a monster for the P.I.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:39 am

000
WWMY80 PGUM 300412
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST SUN OCT 30 2016

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-310200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
200 PM CHST SUN OCT 30 2016

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 12N149E SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE WEST AND PASS SOUTH OF GUAM
ON MONDAY.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MARIANAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THE MARIANAS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS LONG AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS ON
MONDAY WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FEET.

HALLOWEEN TRICK OR TREATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THESE WET AND
SOMETIMES WINDY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

ZIOBRO/GUARD
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 30, 2016 10:26 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 30, 2016 11:19 am

A recent ASCAT pass already shows a weak but closed surface circulation.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 30, 2016 3:06 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.7N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300331Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300004Z ASCAT
PASS ALSO REVEALS THIS LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 72-HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD, JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 30, 2016 3:14 pm

Meari at peak and nudges it back west.

Image

Interestingly, GFS develops this into a big monsoon system as it crosses the Philippines. Totally different from EURO's...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 30, 2016 3:22 pm

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 30, 2016 3:22 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 301554
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 11.4N

D. 146.3E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:50 am

Up to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 149.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY
155 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 302344Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AND BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
LLCC. A 302343Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:51 am

TXPQ29 KNES 310259
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 31/0230Z

C. 10.2N

D. 144.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .25 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:29 am

Looks like there is a great deal of uncertainty over whether 90W escapes through the weakness or not. Both EPS and GEPS have a large spread by tau 120, with about half of each set of members throwing 90W into the weakness and recurving. Adding complexity is Invest 91W, which is located not too far to the southwest of 90W. In some guidance solutions (particularly that of American guidance), 90W ends up interacting with 91W, more or less merging, allowing the resulting Franken-Invest to miss the door out behind 99W and trapping it in the Philippine Sea. It is worth noting that guidance often overdoes binary storm interaction, so at this point, I would lean more towards the recurve scenario, which is more in line with the operational runs of the ECMWF, CMC, and NAVGEM. However, it should be noted that this is not a high-confidence forecast.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:36 am

Here is the 06Z Operational GFS solution showing the merging of 90W and 91W using both 850 and 500 mb vorticity.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:51 am

It's also worth noting that JMA has designated 90W as a tropical depression as of at least 06Z.

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 310600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 45N 146E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 146E TO 45N 149E 43N 153E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 146E TO 41N 142E 37N 134E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 48N
154E 55N 162E 59N 170E 59N 180E 38N 180E 39N 170E 43N 155E 48N 154E.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 33N 138E 26N 130E 16N 119E 16N 109E 18N 109E 22N 112E 27N
120E 32N 122E 33N 138E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 992 HPA AT 57N 152E ESE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 11N 145E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 06N 133E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 11N 156E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 37N 161E EAST 30 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:27 am

TXPQ29 KNES 310938
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 31/0830Z

C. 10.0N

D. 143.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED GREATER THAN .2 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.0 AND
PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:49 am

Image

TD
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 31 October 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 31 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N10°00' (10.0°)
E144°25' (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°35' (10.6°)
E141°25' (141.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:46 pm

Seems like this will be the main area to watch within this broad circulation so putting it here.

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 312300
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST TUE NOV 1 2016

PMZ161-PMZ171-PMZ172-020200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
900 AM CHST TUE NOV 1 2016

...INCLEMENT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PALAU AND YAP THIS WEEK...

AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...YAP STATE
AND CHUUK STATE WILL NEED BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
MICRONESIA AND A MODERATE TO STRONG MONSOON FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIRCULATIONS ARE SEEN NEAR KOROR AT 8N135E...NORTHEAST OF YAP NEAR
11N143E...AND WELL NORTH OF CHUUK NEAR 13N152E. COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES WILL DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTH OF THESE CIRCULATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PALAU AND YAP.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THIS WEEK
BECAUSE WINDS AND WAVES COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT...
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AT PALAU AND YAP. TRAVEL BY BOAT
SHOULD BE CAREFULLY PLANNED.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:48 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 312100
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 31/2030Z

C. 10.7N

D. 142.3E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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