EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

This system looks pretty good now. Getting more and more organized as time progresses. Well on its way of becoming a potential well developed cyclone. Could be hanging around that region for days to come observing the steering pattern from now into next week to 10 days. This system not only could pose a threat to Central America, but may be a threat to the Cayman Islands or Jamaica also in the next few days. 2016 hurricane season may go out with a bang it looks like unfortunately down there.

[cycloneye]

#9 is on the way.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/798637638324322304

[NDG]

Beautiful UL conditions over 90L for this time of the year, but typical during La Ninas. If 12z Euro is correct it could add some very nice ACE to the Atlantic Season.

[wxman57]

Three weeks ago, I scheduled my first day of Thanksgiving vacation for this Friday and planned to be off all of next week. I keep saying that my vacation controls the tropics...

[gatorcane]

18Z MU already coming in more defined and stronger than the previous few runs out through 120 hours so far

[Alyono]

This MU is indicating the possibility for horrific flooding in Panama

[gatorcane]

Yeah a lot of flooding. Look how the MU is rapidly intensifying this as it meanders just north of Panama, 951MB at 168 hours and a 20MB drop in 6 hours:

[gatorcane]

Another 20MB drop between hours 168 and 174, heading for Nicaragua. That is 930MB

[Alyono]

there are two populated Columbian Islands east of Nicaragua. This looks like it is going over Provedencia, which is home to about 5,000. To its south is San Andres which is home to about 65,000

[StormHunter72]

Seems like no threat to CONUS

[Alyono]

looks like a stronger version of Felix this run

[cycloneye]

It would be a worse disaster than Mitch for Nicaragua.

[1900hurricane]

Upper air environment is not a limiting factor at the moment. This is a good setup for development.

[Hurricaneman]

This has most of the earmarks of a potential major hurricane, but where it tracks could also be a huge story for someone, it's been quite a while since I've seen such potential in November and it's been since 1985 since we've seen such potential in mid to late November so this is definitely something to watch especially from the greater Antilles to Central America

[Alyono]

It would be a worse disaster than Mitch for Nicaragua.

probably not. Felix was nowhere near as bad for Nicaragua, nor was Joan. The main issue with Mitch was a rainband that remained over Nicaragua for about 4 days

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[abajan]

Certainly seems to be taking shape now:

[EquusStorm]

If the steering stays weak and it sits just offshore though, it COULD be a significant issue, since the energy would be offshore and keep replenishing the bands that'd keep moving in...

[cycloneye]

It haa a great structure.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS sends this feature into Costa Rica, while the Euro is heading towards the NW Caribbean so it will be a model battle again

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.