EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[Sanibel]

Needs to refire. Could be a gimme.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad low pressure
system. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
slow development of this disturbance during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over
the weekend while the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Alyono]

6Z MU for no apparent reason basically drops it entirely.

Uccellini, fix your model! It should not be going from a cat 5 to a broad low in less than a day

[northjaxpro]

It looks like convection is just now beginning to fire up on satellite imagery early this morning. A very nice anticyclone is over the system right now with very good outflow. Environment looks quite conducive for development at this time. Once convection regenerates, it will be just a matter of time of seeing Otto being born in the SW Caribbean.

[wxman57]

I see a vortex beneath the convection around 14N/79W, which is over 100 miles north of where the models initialized it. If that vortex does become the main center, then the risk to Haiti and the DR may be increasing, and a track to the NE would be more likely than getting trapped in the Caribbean next week. Something to watch for, anyway. My money is still on Nicaragua/Honduras with landfall next Wed-Thu.

[cycloneye]

Tentative first mission set for Friday November 18 in the afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST WED 16 NOVEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z NOVEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-174

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/2000Z NEAR 11.5N 81.5W

[cycloneye]

12z GFS drops development.Only copious rains for Central America.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/798932005241159680

[Alyono]

Canadian has largely dropped this as well

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad low pressure area. The system is currently
disorganized, and recent satellite data indicate that the associated
winds are light. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has a Nicaragua landfall.

[blp]

Looks like the GFS has the right idea again over the Euro buried into Nicaragua.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a very complex genesis coming up (at least compared to Matthew). Beta in 2005 comes to mind. The models will likely continue to be inconsistent with genesis scenarios over the next few days.

[hcane27]

Reminds me of the Shakesperean play ..... "Much Ado About Nothing"

[blp]

I see a vortex beneath the convection around 14N/79W, which is over 100 miles north of where the models initialized it. If that vortex does become the main center, then the risk to Haiti and the DR may be increasing, and a track to the NE would be more likely than getting trapped in the Caribbean next week. Something to watch for, anyway. My money is still on Nicaragua/Honduras with landfall next Wed-Thu.

The models have it starting out further north initially followed by a push SW then back East. So it will be like a pinball for a couple of days before it fully consolidates. I keep thinking that if it ramps up quicker then progged it could get further North and head NE with the trough otherwise with a strong ridge forecasted later in the period it has no where to go but to get stuck and head inland over Nicaragua.

[Hurricaneman]

Look at Marco 1996 for a track and intensity as a possibility and oddly enough the same time of year 20 years ago

[Alyono]

yesterday, it seemed like development was certain.

Today, the chances have most certainly dropped. System may end up too far SW to develop. I'd say a 65 percent chance of development now, or a 2 in 3 chance. Down from 90 percent yesterday

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Has monsoonal low look about it, those types of systems can sometimes take a bit of time to get going. If they do.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abrammer/maps/wmo/

[abajan]

Formation Chances Unchanged



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad low pressure area. This system has changed
little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during
the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Pasch