Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4171
Age: 36
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#41 Postby Hammy » Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:39 am

MississippiWx wrote:0z Euro follows the trend of other models with a colder/wetter scenario across the Deep South. Still looks like an increased freezing rain/sleet threat across Central/Southeast MS, Central/South Alabama and on into Georgia. North Georgia and the Carolinas look mighty pretty with all the snow totals.

Btw, just looking at Euro output for my location here in Southeast Mississippi, the 0z Euro was 3 degrees colder than the 12z at the same time frame. That puts us right at 32-33 degrees with the heaviest (0.8-1.0 inch) qpf moving through. Interesting for sure.


Without posting maps can you tell me the Euro accumulation trend for Winder/Athens in GA?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7718
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#42 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:52 am

The general consensus is that 1 to 3 inches of snowfall expected in and around Birmingham and Atlanta metro areas. 3 to 5 inches is currently forecast for the Charlotte metro area and they're expecting anywhere from 4 to 6 inches in and around the Raleigh-Durham metro area, but the GFS forecast as a bullseye showing at least upwards to 10 inches across interior Eastern NC closer to Jacksonville, NC .

This is shaping.up to be a rather decent snow event over the Southeast U.S. for sure.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3646
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#43 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:34 am

Hammy wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:0z Euro follows the trend of other models with a colder/wetter scenario across the Deep South. Still looks like an increased freezing rain/sleet threat across Central/Southeast MS, Central/South Alabama and on into Georgia. North Georgia and the Carolinas look mighty pretty with all the snow totals.

Btw, just looking at Euro output for my location here in Southeast Mississippi, the 0z Euro was 3 degrees colder than the 12z at the same time frame. That puts us right at 32-33 degrees with the heaviest (0.8-1.0 inch) qpf moving through. Interesting for sure.


Without posting maps can you tell me the Euro accumulation trend for Winder/Athens in GA?


The 0Z Euro has Winder/Athens, GA, in a 3-6" area while the colder, wetter 6Z GFS has you in 6-9"+!!!! I'd say a major hit of 4-6" snow has become likely and that an amazing, rare, and very disruptive 6-9" snow is becoming increasingly possible.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17318
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#44 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:40 am

Yes! Memorable storm from N/NE Ga to the Carolinas
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1096
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#45 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:44 am

6z GFS came in wetter and colder yet again. Ensembles are very wet too. This system looks more and more robust as we get closer to the event. I'm impressed by the snow totals in Georgia and the Carolinas. Very jealous! However, models still look more and more suspicious of a slightly higher impact ice event across Central/Southern MS and Alabama. The further east you go, the better the snow chances look.
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7718
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#46 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:03 am

Yes I agree with all the above a very wet and dynamic winter storm that is about to impact the Southeast U.S. In particular, Eastern NC really is looking to be quite the winner (if you look at it that way) with a bullseye for this particular storm with projected snow totals I mentioned above in my post on this page. One thing I did notice is that the 6Z GFS. this morning also bought the wintry mix line all the way down to Pensacola and Crestview in the western Panhandle and all of South Alabama, including the Dothan region. Watch for possible freezing rain and sleet as well come Friday night and early Saturday morning in those areas.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

bella_may
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#47 Postby bella_may » Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:15 am

Hopefully that green bullseye from waynesboro, ms to Birmingham, AL will keep coming further south! :cheesy:
0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1096
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#48 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:25 am

12z NAM sure is interesting with snow totals in LA/MS/AL. Imagine that most of the accumulation is sleet though (particularly in MS).

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017010512&fh=34&xpos=0&ypos=496
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

bella_may
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#49 Postby bella_may » Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:10 am

Quite an interesting 12z gfs. Shows frozen precip starting in hattiesburg as early as 4pm Friday and it looks like temps might get colder faster than anticipated
1 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2114
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#50 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:19 am

Very close to some kind of event in Baton Rouge but the temps need to trend down faster. The precip is just barely outrunning the frozen temps. It looks like the best we could hope for would be sleet, anyway. I would love a surprise snowfall, though. All of our snowfalls recently have been surprises down here, either that it happened at all or the amounts.
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5478
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#51 Postby MGC » Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:27 am

LIX mentions the possibility of frozen precipitation in this mornings forecast discussion. Today's 12Z GFS forecasts a swath of frozen precipitation all the way to coastal Louisiana at midnight Friday into Saturday morning. The trend is your friend, so lets see if we can see some sleet, ice or snow down here on the MS Coast.....MGC
1 likes   

bella_may
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#52 Postby bella_may » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:36 pm

New NAM has snow (or some type of frozen precip) all the way down to the 1-65 corridor of downtown mobile. GFS is also colder with temps at or close to freezing by 7pm in the inland coastal counties. Also shows frozen stuff all the way down to picayune
2 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1096
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#53 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:43 pm

0z runs are all colder/wetter across the Deep South. Still looks like a slightly higher impact icing event across South MS into Central Alabama with possibly a changeover to light snow. Would not surprise me to see a few winter storm warnings pop up because of ice accumulations.

The JAN updated discussion tonight mentioned how the models are showing a bit more phasing between the mid-level trough to the north and wave passing through the Gulf. This makes for a slightly stronger and more dynamic system. This event is still unfolding before our eyes. It has been fascinating to track.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7718
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#54 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:08 am

The storm system is evolving quite well early this morning. Already overrunning precipitation (isentropic lift) is well underway over NE TX and now spreading east into Northern LA, Northern. MS and Northwest AL. Some of that precip may not yet be reaching the surface, but by late morning that should not be the case.

We should see light wintry precipitation start later this morning into the afternoon across North LA and Northern and Central MS. As the developing Low Pressure system in the Northern GOM moves east/northeast, a significant winter winter event commences for the Deep South. New snowfall projections are now 2 to 4 inches for Birmingham and Atlanta metro areas beginning tonight through Saturday morning.

However, 6 to 8 inches of snowfall is forecast for Charlotte metro area and Central North Carolina Piedmont region.

Also, Alabama, Georgia, and North.Carolina have already declared state of emegencies by their governors. A potentially memorable Deep South winter storm by the end of this weekend now in progress.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 280
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#55 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:53 am

Looks like a lot of this is going to fall as boring freezing rain and sleet, at least in the southern half of Alabama and Mississippi. I was looking at the forecast sounding last night and there is a rather large warm nose extending well inland.
0 likes   

bella_may
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#56 Postby bella_may » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:10 am

12z GFS is very wet and even further south. It's a watch game now
0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1096
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#57 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:45 am

Winter storm warnings are going into effect for Central and Southern Mississippi. Ice accumulations up to .25-.30 are possible as well as 2 inches of snow!
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

bella_may
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#58 Postby bella_may » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:51 am

MississippiWx wrote:Winter storm warnings are going into effect for Central and Southern Mississippi. Ice accumulations up to .25-.30 are possible as well as 2 inches of snow!


The advisories were expanded south this morning to include my area. Wonder if the warnings will follow as well
0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1096
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#59 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:12 pm

bella_may wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Winter storm warnings are going into effect for Central and Southern Mississippi. Ice accumulations up to .25-.30 are possible as well as 2 inches of snow!


The advisories were expanded south this morning to include my area. Wonder if the warnings will follow as well


Where is your area?
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

bella_may
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#60 Postby bella_may » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:34 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
bella_may wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Winter storm warnings are going into effect for Central and Southern Mississippi. Ice accumulations up to .25-.30 are possible as well as 2 inches of snow!


The advisories were expanded south this morning to include my area. Wonder if the warnings will follow as well

Just north of lucedale

Where is your area?
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 76 guests