Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17

Winter Weather Discussion

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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#81 Postby Lane » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:22 pm

Precipitation looks like it may end soon. Still at 35 here, just a cold rain.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#82 Postby Hammy » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:33 pm

Lane wrote:Precipitation looks like it may end soon. Still at 35 here, just a cold rain.


Looks like NE Georgia will miss out as well, rain appears it'll be ending by midnight but NWS doesn't have the snow line arriving until ~4am.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#83 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:01 pm

Yes the warm nose really kept the snowfall totals to be greatly reduced across Alabama and Georgia. The coldest column of air is not getting in place fast enough while the bulk of the precipiation tonight is in place over Northern AL and Northern GA this evening. Ice build-up with the freezong rain and sleet will continue into the early morning. It now appears that maybe 1 to maybe 2 inches in a few spots of snow accumulation at best will occur around Atlanta metro area before precip moves out by sunrise tomorrow morning.

Looks like the big snow accumulations will be the upstate SC region along I-85 into the Charlotte area and through the Central NC Piedmont region to the Raleigh area. 3 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected in Charlotte and as much as 6 to 8 inches in Durham and Raleigh, NC.

Blizzard warning is still up by the NWS in the coastal SE Virginia region as much as a foot of snow may impact that area as the Low Pressure area is expected to intensify rather significantly just off the coast of Norfolk, VA by midday tomorrow.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#84 Postby Hammy » Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:25 am

I'm honestly frustrated beyond words, especially with Florida getting snow but none here, and there being practically zero chance of even flurries the rest of the winter given the weekly and monthly model output.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#85 Postby La Breeze » Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:41 am

Heavy sleet and snow flurries for about 2 hours earlier this evening here in Vermilion Parish, in southwestern Louisiana. Sleet was quite hard for a while. Winds kicking up now.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#86 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:16 pm

Winter finally showed up in the Panhandle of Florida. Not expecting to get out of the 40's today but no worries, back in the 70's by Wednesday. 8-)
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#87 Postby Agua » Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:15 pm

MGC wrote:LIX mentions the possibility of frozen precipitation in this mornings forecast discussion. Today's 12Z GFS forecasts a swath of frozen precipitation all the way to coastal Louisiana at midnight Friday into Saturday morning. The trend is your friend, so lets see if we can see some sleet, ice or snow down here on the MS Coast.....MGC

Did you get your frozen precipitation? I was in the Mississippi Delta hunting. Looked like they got decent snow or sleet from about Madison Mississippi to Mendenhall driving in today.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#88 Postby Hammy » Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:42 am

We ended up with a light dusting not too long after I went to bed, most of which was melted by the time I woke up. Temperatures dropped fairly quickly tonight with 18.8 measured at the end of my street.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#89 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:56 am

Looks like Greenville, SC received 4.5 inches of snowfall, Charlotte metro 4 to 6 inches, and Greensboro, NC had 9 inches.

Upstate SC up through the Central NC Piedmont region was where the snow eventually really accumulated, right along and just north of the Interstate 85 corridor in South Carolina and North Carolina.

Impressive winter storm. This potentially could have been more of a major snowstorm had it not been for that warm nose, which established itself further north than anticipated. Freezing rain lingered much longer across Alabama and Georgia and even across areas of the SC and NC Piedmont. The colder column of air occuring 5000 ft above the surface arrived too late over much of the South to keep snow accumulations from being really impactful across the region. So much more icing occured over North AL and North GA and the SC Midlands and Southern Piedmont.

Very cold temperatures in the wake of the winter storm in the Deep South. Temps are well down in the teens across much of the Deep South in AL, GA and the Carolinas early this morning. Temperatures fell in the low to mid 20s all the way down to here across Northern Florida this morning!!! :cold:
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#90 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:07 am

^The Atlanta area received about 0.50" of rainfall, most of which was ZR. This was vs the GFS' ~1.00" of qpf. The Friday 12Z GFS even had a whopping 1.25"!! I think that one reason it verified much lower than the GFS qpf was that the winds were mainly from the NW (probably closer to NNW) during it, which is typically a snow direction rather than a ZR or sleet direction and which typically is not as wet in Atlanta as the NE or E winds of a wedge.

Atlanta getting as much as 0.50" of ZR with winds from the NNW was highly unusual. I'm not sure I'll be able to find another case like this going at least back to when prevailing wind data was readily available (around 1940). I already know that I can't find even a single 0.75"+ ZR or even a major sleet that didn't have winds mainly from the east! That's 21 storms since 1940!! Can you imagine all 21 having mainly E winds?!?

I was surprised more of that wasn't sleet as the GFS had repeatedly predicted 925 mb temp.'s of -2C to -3C! I don't know what the 925's turned out to be. That may very well remain a mystery.

Had it been mostly wet snow, they could have had 4-5".

Another interesting thing about the places in the SE that got a major snow was that it happened with a -PNA, +NAO, and a +AO. It happening with a significant ZR at Atlanta may not have been so surprising but perhaps it was surprising that Greenville (SC), Charlotte and Greensboro all got a major snow with this combo. However, I have often emphasized that major NC snowstorm history since 1950 (when daily NAO/AO data starts) doesn't even come close to requiring a -NAO or -AO as a number of notable NC snowstorms did NOT have either or even both. OTOH, perhaps the lack of either made it difficult to get the central Florida crossover that GFS runs had had just within a couple of days of the storm. Had it crossed central FL instead of N FL, Atlanta probably would have had the major snow that the GFS had been predicting.

One more piece of climo: neutral negative ENSO heavily favors the chance for major ZR or major sleet over major snow at Atlanta! During neutral negative ENSO, they have had a whopping 18 of either major ZR or major sleet vs only 4 of major snow since the late 1800's! So, regarding ENSO, Atlanta getting significant ZR rather than snow actually fit better with their climo.

In summary, this was an interesting storm for me in a number of ways when analyzing how it compares to past SE winter storms.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#91 Postby MGC » Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:58 pm

Agua wrote:
MGC wrote:LIX mentions the possibility of frozen precipitation in this mornings forecast discussion. Today's 12Z GFS forecasts a swath of frozen precipitation all the way to coastal Louisiana at midnight Friday into Saturday morning. The trend is your friend, so lets see if we can see some sleet, ice or snow down here on the MS Coast.....MGC

Did you get your frozen precipitation? I was in the Mississippi Delta hunting. Looked like they got decent snow or sleet from about Madison Mississippi to Mendenhall driving in today.


I didn't see any frozen precipitation. Nearly got 2 inches of rain though.....MGC
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#92 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:15 pm

The GFS is showing its cold bias with near ideal radiational cooling conditions over deep snowcover, when it often overdoes the lows. For example, even today's 12Z GFS had a low of 2F at Greensboro, NC, this morning even though the low was only down to 9F. They have them getting down to a ridiculously cold -12F tonight!!! The RDU NWS office is wisely ignoring that nonsense and has them getting down to near 0F (still frigid and record cold though).

To add to the above, here's an even worse case if you can believe it. Today's 0Z and 6Z GFS runs had KGSP (Greer, SC) down to the -3 to -4F range over its snowcover. It only got down to around 17F!! The last 3 runs have a low of -1F for tonight. However, the GSP NWS office wisely has them going down only to 13F.

I think it is always important to recognize model biases and this is the best way to learn them, keeping track of verifications.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#93 Postby Hammy » Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:52 pm

Given the week of near-80 degree temperatures and models indicating little to no change over the long term, I think winter is over already in Georgia.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#94 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:29 pm

Hammy wrote:Given the week of near-80 degree temperatures and models indicating little to no change over the long term, I think winter is over already in Georgia.


Seems the latest models are showing quite the opposite come a week's time. Looks quite cold for the SE US and deep south and maybe an extended period of below normal temps for a change, still TBD in the long-range.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#95 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 21, 2017 3:52 am

Hammy, I think you may have been a bit too quick to proclaim that winter is over in the Deep South. I think deep down you were just talking in jest about this in your earlier post. Granted we have been enjoying the lengthy period of + NAO and for the most part as it has been spring weather across the region. The only "winter" we have had in the Deep South so far this season was two weeks ago with the very brief deep freeze and winter storm in the Southeast U.S.

However, both the GFS and EURO are coming together in agreeing that a very amplified upper level trough looks to get established by next weekend (January 27-28) Cold air looks to get funneled straight down on northwesterly flow from Canada right into the Deep South.

Positive PNA and what looks to be a change to a slightly negative NAO at the start of February may allow the cold to get locked in place over the Eastern CONUS for a little while (at least a week) as we get to the first week of February.. Model guidance in the 10 day range is hinting to me that we may see significant freezes across the Deep South and down into Northern Florida. in the next 10 days.

Old Man Winter will be back in a big way folks. You never declare winter being over in mid to late January in most instances It is way too soon to do that imo. We still have at least a good 4 to 6 more weeks of meteorological winter still left to get through yet...
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#96 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:31 am

The 6Z GFS is a very interesting run out 324 hours as it shows a quick moving deepening winter storm that develops across the Southern Plains and moves east and then northeast as it intensifies off the Mid-Atlantic coast by February 3. This may be possibly something big to watch in the long term.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#97 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:43 am

The 6Z GFS is a very interesting run out 324 hours as it shows a quick moving deepening winter storm that develops across the Central Plains and moves east and then northeast as it intensifies (953 mb) off the New England coast by February 3.

Still a long way out. However, the pattern may set up to favor such a storm to organize if the southern branch of the jet stream gets active and phases with the polar jet. This may be possibly something big to watch in the long term.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#98 Postby Hammy » Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:05 pm

Latest models have backed off big time from the extended cold snap, now showing only slightly below normal temperatures for about three days before significant above normal temperatures return.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#99 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:13 pm

:uarrow: Yeah the models have been retrograding the big ridge that initially was indicated to set up over the Pacific NW and up into Alaska. This will be critical in the long term. We will see as time progresses if we we do not get a pronounced positive PNA. If we do not see that happen, then yes we will not see a very significant cold spell for the Deep South. Still a ways out though, so this can still change obviously. We will see how this plays out the next few days with.the models.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#100 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:04 am

A very dangerous and life threatening tornado event will occur across North Florida, South Georgia and extreme southeast Alabama this afternoon and tonight. The SPC has issued a rare high risk area with numerous tornadoes and a few long track tornadoes likely. A large moderate risk area surrounds the high risk area which includes a large portion of SC. If you have family, friends, and co-workers in those area, please make sure they are weather aware now.
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