SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
The last storm of this intensity to make landfall in Australia was Yasi?
I know a lot of reporters from Aussie stations are covering it up there. They haven't had much chance in this era either.
I know a lot of reporters from Aussie stations are covering it up there. They haven't had much chance in this era either.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Wind report (10-min sustained) of 103 kt on Hamilton Island, gusting to 125 kt.
That supports an intensity of at least 115 kt (1-min) - category 4 on the SSHWS as well.
That supports an intensity of at least 115 kt (1-min) - category 4 on the SSHWS as well.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
NotoSans wrote:Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.
I agree, high end of cat 4 on their scale, while 115 kt seems the best estimate on 1-min winds given the data from Hamilton Island.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
CrazyC83 wrote:If the K-Z-C wind relationship is used on a central pressure of 950mb, what intensity does it come out to given its size and latitude?
Using the 950 mb central pressure and the 18Z data from the ATCF b-decks (latitude of 19.9S, forward speed of 4 kt, average tropical storm force radius of 160 nm, and outermost closed isobar of 1005 mb), KZC outputs 100 kt 1 minute sustained/88 kt 10 minute sustained. However, if the 103 kt from Hamilton Island (59 m elevation) is representative of maximum intensity, KZC spits out a 935 mb pressure.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
NotoSans wrote:BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.
I just realized the Hamilton Island station is elevated at 59 m. So the 105 kt intensity seems reasonable in that case, maybe 110 kt.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Based on storm chaser reports so far, I would estimate the landfall pressure to be 954mb.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Back end of Debbie lashing Airlie beach.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0vqg1h ... e=youtu.be
Chase footage .
Chase footage .
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