Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala / GA - April 2 -3
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA
New updated graphic by SPC. Still High Risk area.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes,
severe wind, and severe hail will spread from the Sabine river
valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The
greatest risk for tornadoes will exist from across Louisiana into
Mississippi this afternoon through tonight.
...East Texas into Louisiana and western Mississippi...
Storms continue to evolve across the area, with the most intense
cells near the warm front over central LA, and along and just ahead
of the cold front/outflow boundary over far eastern TX. South of
these boundaries, the air mass is very moist and unstable with gusty
southeasterly winds allowing for a gradual northward shift in the
greater instability across LA and into southwest MS. Shear profiles
strongly favor supercells along with tornadoes, with effective SRH
on the order of 400-600 m2/s2 observed on area VAD wind profiles.
The area will continue to experience a severe threat for many more
hours until the cold front moves through from the west. While only a
few of the numerous storms are currently severe, the environment
will remain quite favorable and further intensification of storms is
expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening. For more
information see MCD 403, 404 and 405.
..Jewell.. 04/02/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017/
...Portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through
tonight...
A long-lived thunderstorm cluster that crossed central Texas through
the overnight/morning hours is losing organization as it is
advancing into east Texas. Convection continues to form ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary related to the cluster -- from parts of the
Upper TX Coast through the lower Sabine Valley region within a
warm-advection plume. This plume of warm advection is associated
with an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough, whose accompanying
midlevel speed maximum is emerging over south Texas. As the
shortwave trough continues to advance eastward, the low-level mass
response will facilitate poleward return of rich boundary-layer
moisture -- e.g., 15 g/kg mean mixing ratio per Lake Charles 12Z
observed sounding. As such, an expansive warm sector associated with
MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg will become established through the
afternoon from the western/central Gulf Coast northward to a
precipitation-reinforced warm frontal zone forecast to extend from
part of east-central TX eastward across northern Louisiana.
With open-warm-sector convective development now becoming apparent
ahead of the remnants of the convective cluster, it is expected that
this activity will mature as it interacts with the
northward-advancing warm frontal zone. This is where effective SRH
around 300-400 m2/s2 amid strong deep shear and increasing buoyancy
will exist. Given increasing confidence in semi-discrete
supercells/supercell clusters interacting with this warm frontal
zone around peak heating, confidence has increased in greater
tornado potential -- including significant tornadoes -- across the
now-upgraded High Risk area. The significant-tornado potential will
spread toward the lower Mississippi Valley into the evening hours.
Into the evening and overnight hours tonight, a band of warm
advection/confluence will facilitate the development of a
pre-frontal squall line that will advance eastward across parts of
LA/MS and far southern AR. In addition to the potential for
extensive wind damage, meso-vortices and embedded supercells capable
of producing tornadoes are expected to spread eastward through the
lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours. Increased
confidence in this scenario warrants eastward extension of the
Moderate Risk area.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes,
severe wind, and severe hail will spread from the Sabine river
valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The
greatest risk for tornadoes will exist from across Louisiana into
Mississippi this afternoon through tonight.
...East Texas into Louisiana and western Mississippi...
Storms continue to evolve across the area, with the most intense
cells near the warm front over central LA, and along and just ahead
of the cold front/outflow boundary over far eastern TX. South of
these boundaries, the air mass is very moist and unstable with gusty
southeasterly winds allowing for a gradual northward shift in the
greater instability across LA and into southwest MS. Shear profiles
strongly favor supercells along with tornadoes, with effective SRH
on the order of 400-600 m2/s2 observed on area VAD wind profiles.
The area will continue to experience a severe threat for many more
hours until the cold front moves through from the west. While only a
few of the numerous storms are currently severe, the environment
will remain quite favorable and further intensification of storms is
expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening. For more
information see MCD 403, 404 and 405.
..Jewell.. 04/02/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017/
...Portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through
tonight...
A long-lived thunderstorm cluster that crossed central Texas through
the overnight/morning hours is losing organization as it is
advancing into east Texas. Convection continues to form ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary related to the cluster -- from parts of the
Upper TX Coast through the lower Sabine Valley region within a
warm-advection plume. This plume of warm advection is associated
with an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough, whose accompanying
midlevel speed maximum is emerging over south Texas. As the
shortwave trough continues to advance eastward, the low-level mass
response will facilitate poleward return of rich boundary-layer
moisture -- e.g., 15 g/kg mean mixing ratio per Lake Charles 12Z
observed sounding. As such, an expansive warm sector associated with
MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg will become established through the
afternoon from the western/central Gulf Coast northward to a
precipitation-reinforced warm frontal zone forecast to extend from
part of east-central TX eastward across northern Louisiana.
With open-warm-sector convective development now becoming apparent
ahead of the remnants of the convective cluster, it is expected that
this activity will mature as it interacts with the
northward-advancing warm frontal zone. This is where effective SRH
around 300-400 m2/s2 amid strong deep shear and increasing buoyancy
will exist. Given increasing confidence in semi-discrete
supercells/supercell clusters interacting with this warm frontal
zone around peak heating, confidence has increased in greater
tornado potential -- including significant tornadoes -- across the
now-upgraded High Risk area. The significant-tornado potential will
spread toward the lower Mississippi Valley into the evening hours.
Into the evening and overnight hours tonight, a band of warm
advection/confluence will facilitate the development of a
pre-frontal squall line that will advance eastward across parts of
LA/MS and far southern AR. In addition to the potential for
extensive wind damage, meso-vortices and embedded supercells capable
of producing tornadoes are expected to spread eastward through the
lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours. Increased
confidence in this scenario warrants eastward extension of the
Moderate Risk area.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
Another Tornado Watch coming soon.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
Video of damage in SW part of Alexandria.
https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/848632015448678400
https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/848632015448678400
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
@spann
Tornado is likely south of Jena, LA
Tornado is likely south of Jena, LA
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
@codyyeary
Tornado (potentially strong) approaching Nebo/Jena, LA. (3:57 pm CDT)
Tornado (potentially strong) approaching Nebo/Jena, LA. (3:57 pm CDT)
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
I found zero coverage. No TV station, no radio, no chaser. Can anyone help out ?
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
Bunkertor wrote:I found zero coverage. No TV station, no radio, no chaser. Can anyone help out ?
Agree. No chaers covering this event that was well advertised days ago.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
a more appropriate emergency for Jena now
0 likes
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6112
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
116
WWUS54 KSHV 022107
SVSSHV
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
407 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017
LAC021-059-022145-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170402T2145Z/
Caldwell LA-La Salle LA-
407 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITIES OF MIDWAY AND JENA...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
CALDWELL AND NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE PARISHES...
At 406 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Midway, or 24 miles northwest of Larto, moving northeast at 35
mph.
TORNADO EMERGENCY for the cities of Midway and Jena. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...Deadly tornado.
SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.
The tornado will be near...
Jena and Midway around 415 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3172 9201 3166 9204 3159 9211 3163 9226
3193 9212 3192 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 205DEG 31KT 3163 9218
TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.75IN
WWUS54 KSHV 022107
SVSSHV
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
407 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017
LAC021-059-022145-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170402T2145Z/
Caldwell LA-La Salle LA-
407 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITIES OF MIDWAY AND JENA...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
CALDWELL AND NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE PARISHES...
At 406 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Midway, or 24 miles northwest of Larto, moving northeast at 35
mph.
TORNADO EMERGENCY for the cities of Midway and Jena. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...Deadly tornado.
SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.
The tornado will be near...
Jena and Midway around 415 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3172 9201 3166 9204 3159 9211 3163 9226
3193 9212 3192 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 205DEG 31KT 3163 9218
TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.75IN
0 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITIES OF MIDWAY AND JENA IN LOUISIANA!
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
Does anyone knows the population of Jena?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
cycloneye wrote:Does anyone knows the population of Jena?
Found info on Wiki.
As of the census[7] of 2000, there were 2,971 people, 1,135 households, and 749 families residing in the town. The population density was 552.7 people per square mile (213.2/km²). There were 1,264 housing units at an average density of 235.2 per square mile (90.7/km²).
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
It probably hit one or both of the neighborhoods labeled Trout and Good Pine.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
@ReedTimmer
Confirmed tornado crossing Hwy 84 just west of Jena, LA right now is still moving NNE! making slight left hand turn
Confirmed tornado crossing Hwy 84 just west of Jena, LA right now is still moving NNE! making slight left hand turn
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
@codyyeary
Summerville Township is smaller, but likely to take a direct hit from a strong tornado
Summerville Township is smaller, but likely to take a direct hit from a strong tornado
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
@NWSShreveport
Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues for Winnfield LA, Jena LA, Colfax LA until 5:30 PM CDT
Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues for Winnfield LA, Jena LA, Colfax LA until 5:30 PM CDT
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
@NWSShreveport
Storm Report: Numerous trees down. Car destroyed by tree, and barn blown down 3 E of Grayson.
Storm Report: Numerous trees down. Car destroyed by tree, and barn blown down 3 E of Grayson.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / Louisiana / Mississippi / Arkansas - April 2 -3 - Moderate Risk
JDawg512 wrote:Tornado warning for northwestern Travis County, southwestern Williamson County. Hope Weatherdude is staying safe.
I was driving up 35 from Austin to Round Rock when I heard the warning. Got to work just as the wind and rain hit. Management was watching the weather getting ready to tell us to get to a safe place. Nothing major happened there.
Then I got a text, 3 sections of fence fell at home...
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 59 guests