ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:42 am

91L INVEST 170417 1200 32.7N 47.1W ATL 50 986
Image
0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:30 am

Second Invest of the year and it's only April 17th! :eek:

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:30 am

This is pretty interesting, It doesn't look that bad, but it's kind of weird that we are on invest 91L already and the NHC hasn't mentioned a thing.
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:37 am

weathaguyry wrote:This is pretty interesting, It doesn't look that bad, but it's kind of weird that we are on invest 91L already and the NHC hasn't mentioned a thing.

Unless it is a immediate threat to land or the U.S. or is a borderline Tropical Cyclone the NHC seems to rarely awaken during the off-season for these things.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:40 am

Image

It's in a fairly low shear environment
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: ARLENE - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:41 am

A large circle.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:51 am

Haven't seen a storm floater put up yet. 8-)
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:55 am

Very interesting, yet another invest and it's only mid-April! This is starting to get me to believe that we'll see much more activity in the first half of the season than there was last year, especially if El Niño develops in the fall.
1 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:00 pm

Already has 50kt winds.

Image
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:14 pm

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center. This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday. For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart


Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#11 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:33 pm

First TWO of the year!
:woo:
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Vince_and_Grace_fan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:25 am
Location: Szombathely (Hungary)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:34 pm

The first HWRF run expect pretty good (subtrpical) structure, already tomorrow. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=91L&pkg=goes4&runtime=2017041712&fh=0

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:35 pm

Wouldn't surprise me if we manage to get Arlene from this. Like the past 6-7 years the Subtropical Atlantic is the new MDR. :lol:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:53 pm

0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#15 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:20 pm

WOW! I can't believe that this is all happening so fast! I wonder if we'll see Arlene soon, I would have assumed that the NHC wouldn't bother with this like they didn't bother with the one in March, but I guess I was wrong!
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:14 pm

Extratropical at 18z.

AL, 91, 2017041718, , BEST, 0, 323N, 452W, 45, 987, EX

Location: 32.3°N 45.2°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 330 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 110 NM
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:50 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:54 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#19 Postby RL3AO » Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:02 pm

From Alicia Bentley's webpage.

I thought it was fun to track the PV anomaly from a central US cyclone last week march across the SE US and into the SW Atlantic before interacting with the midlatitude cyclone over the north-central Atlantic.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#20 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:03 pm

This invest reminds me a lot of Tropical Storm Ana from 2003. Similar location, exact same time, and it developed as a subtropical storm. It's listed as an analog here.

Image
1 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests