BoB: CYCLONE MORA

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Reminds me of epac ts Adrian atm, not stacked correctly aloft but looking very good from the surface to mids.

[Alyono]

MAYBE some encouraging news

if this continues its ENE motion, it could spare the Ganges, instead striking Myanmar or extreme SE Bangladesh. The next 12 hours are going to be critical

[doomhaMwx]

IMD now officially calling it a Depression... Always too slow/conservative...

Latest observations & satellite imagery indicate that a depression has formed over central Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 28th May, 2017 near Latitude 14.0ºN and Longitude 88.5ºE, about 950 km south of Kolkata and 980 km south-southwest of Chittagong. The system is very likely to move north-northeastwards and reach Bangladesh coast by 30th May 2017 forenoon. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

00z 02B is a strengthening system as it approaches.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2017 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 15:08:54 N Lon : 90:38:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 993.7mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -71.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 58.2 degrees

****************************************************

[doomhaMwx]

Based on the recent model track guidance, the center of 02B will come ashore somewhere in Barisal-Chittagong divisions of Bangladesh, and possibly as south as Myanmar's northern Rakhine state...
The "spread" among the model tracks has decreased in the last 24hrs...

[wxman57]

IMD now officially calling it a Depression... Always too slow/conservative...

Latest observations & satellite imagery indicate that a depression has formed over central Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 28th May, 2017 near Latitude 14.0ºN and Longitude 88.5ºE, about 950 km south of Kolkata and 980 km south-southwest of Chittagong. The system is very likely to move north-northeastwards and reach Bangladesh coast by 30th May 2017 forenoon. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

IMD is the official RSMC of the basin, so what they say goes. Unbelievable how they can estimate Dvorak 1.5 and 25kt winds while ASCAT from yesterday had plenty of 30kt winds. Other agencies give it a Dvorak 2.5 to 3.2. And a forward speed of ENE at 20-25 mph??

[Alyono]

some shear may persist until landfall, but it should not be strong enough to prevent steady intensification. Thinking somewhere between 65 and 75 kts at landfall

[Alyono]

IMO, we should not give the IMD any credence by tagging this as a TD in the thread. This is beyond a shadow of a doubt a cyclone

[Alyono]

thinking the odds of a delta strike are rapidly decreasing. This is too far east not to hit the delta. Looks like around 91.5E. Myanmar looking likely now it appear

[wxman57]

IMO, we should not give the IMD any credence by tagging this as a TD in the thread. This is beyond a shadow of a doubt a cyclone

They are the official RSMC for the basin. What they say, goes, as far as the official record.

[Alyono]

they just did upgrade to a deep depression. Still not on the ball

[Dave C]

Convection expanding more symmetric, shear possibly relaxing some.

[Alyono]

India might actually be right on the intensity. ASCAT now showing any 35 kt winds, though it did not get the western half of the circulation. Perhaps there are some 35 kt winds under the convection

The ASCAT pass also showed the center is likely east of the convection

No ASCAT a is available. Only B No data coming from that instrument

[Alyono]

starting to wonder if this will intensify much at all

Often, these late May systems never escape the shear, which is expected as the monsoon trough moves northward this time of year. The time for intense BOB systems is late April and early May, along with the second half of the season in the fall. Very early, the monsoon trough is still to the south, allowing more favorable conditions, while in the fall, the trough is moving south, creating more favorable conditions to the north.

This may be something to remember in the future, as the global models are downright brutal in forecasting shear in the BOB. They ALWAYS over develop cyclones this time of year. In this case, the anti cyclone shifted over Myanmar. This will be in moderate to strong shear until it makes landfall.

Starting to wonder if this only hits with 45-55 kt winds

[Alyono]

officially Mora now

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I tend to think Mora is much better aligned now and will likely intensify.

[wxman57]

India might actually be right on the intensity. ASCAT now showing any 35 kt winds, though it did not get the western half of the circulation. Perhaps there are some 35 kt winds under the convection

The ASCAT pass also showed the center is likely east of the convection

No ASCAT a is available. Only B No data coming from that instrument

Strongest winds remain in the western half of the storm, with the heavier convection. Center is on the eastern side.

[Alyono]

Mora is sick. It has no core at all. Center appears to be broad and diffuse

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... egreeticks

[shah83]

Wonder what sort of rainfall threat it poses to Bangladesh. It's pulling the rain over Sri Lanka, right?