2017 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Waves galore.



Interesting to see if we'll get successive storms again like last July.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro continues to show development, with the timeframe coming in within 72hrs. Let's see if the GFS at 06z decides to cave. Either way, the NHC needs to take out its yellow marker.

[gatorcane]

Still nothing from the GFS. Looking closely at the 850mb vort from the GFS, seems the GFS moves the vorticity inland by day 3 which may be why it fails to develop. Otherwise the GFS is also showing a favorable upper level environment.

[TheStormExpert]

Now mentioned in the 11am PDT TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is likely to form a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week.
Conditions appear favorable for some development by the middle of
the week while this system moves little to the south of the Mexican
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

12ZEuro coming in weaker compared to the 00z and previous 12z run, though.

Edit: Seems to just delay development by a day or 2.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/868257307163074561

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 27 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is likely to form a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves slowly to
the south of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops it at 120 hours to a TD/weak TS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity
is currently disorganized, some slow development of this large
disturbance will be possible through the end of the week while it
drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Euro now making this a hurricane.

[weathaguyry]

I don't think it's a hurricane

[Kingarabian]

[ig]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_10.png[/img]

I don't think it's a hurricane

988mb on the high-res, which is a hurricane.

[weathaguyry]

[ig]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_10.png[/img]

I don't think it's a hurricane

988mb on the high-res, which is a hurricane.

Ok, I didn't see that

[TheStormExpert]

[ig]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_10.png[/img]

I don't think it's a hurricane

988mb on the high-res, which is a hurricane.

Ok, I didn't see that

I'd take anything the Euro or GFS throw at us with a HUGE grain of salt. Those two models just aren't preforming well.

[Yellow Evan]

What models should we trust then?

[Hurricaneman]

What models should we trust then?

Real time pretty much

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Some slow development of this disturbance
is possible during the next several days while it drifts generally
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

INVEST 91E is up

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has what would be Calvin 250 hours out.

[weathaguyry]

This doesn't look good for there to be another hyperactive EPAC year...