2017 EPAC Season

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#181 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 25, 2017 8:03 pm

Tropical Waves galore.

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Interesting to see if we'll get successive storms again like last July.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#182 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 26, 2017 4:38 am

00z Euro continues to show development, with the timeframe coming in within 72hrs. Let's see if the GFS at 06z decides to cave. Either way, the NHC needs to take out its yellow marker.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#183 Postby gatorcane » Fri May 26, 2017 11:45 am

Still nothing from the GFS. Looking closely at the 850mb vort from the GFS, seems the GFS moves the vorticity inland by day 3 which may be why it fails to develop. Otherwise the GFS is also showing a favorable upper level environment.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#184 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 26, 2017 1:02 pm

Now mentioned in the 11am PDT TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is likely to form a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week.
Conditions appear favorable for some development by the middle of
the week while this system moves little to the south of the Mexican
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#185 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 26, 2017 1:12 pm

12ZEuro coming in weaker compared to the 00z and previous 12z run, though.

Edit: Seems to just delay development by a day or 2.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#186 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 26, 2017 7:52 pm

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#187 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 28, 2017 12:36 am

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 27 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is likely to form a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves slowly to
the south of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#188 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2017 11:34 am

12z GFS develops it at 120 hours to a TD/weak TS.

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#189 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2017 12:46 pm


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity
is currently disorganized, some slow development of this large
disturbance will be possible through the end of the week while it
drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Image
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#190 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 28, 2017 2:37 pm

Euro now making this a hurricane.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#191 Postby weathaguyry » Sun May 28, 2017 3:07 pm

Image

I don't think it's a hurricane
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#192 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 28, 2017 3:09 pm

weathaguyry wrote:[ig]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_10.png[/img]

I don't think it's a hurricane


988mb on the high-res, which is a hurricane.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#193 Postby weathaguyry » Sun May 28, 2017 3:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:[ig]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_10.png[/img]

I don't think it's a hurricane


988mb on the high-res, which is a hurricane.


Ok, I didn't see that
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#194 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun May 28, 2017 3:26 pm

weathaguyry wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:[ig]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_10.png[/img]

I don't think it's a hurricane


988mb on the high-res, which is a hurricane.


Ok, I didn't see that

I'd take anything the Euro or GFS throw at us with a HUGE grain of salt. Those two models just aren't preforming well.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#195 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 28, 2017 4:24 pm

What models should we trust then? :uarrow:
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#196 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun May 28, 2017 5:20 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:What models should we trust then? :uarrow:

Real time pretty much
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#197 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2017 7:00 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Some slow development of this disturbance
is possible during the next several days while it drifts generally
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#198 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 29, 2017 12:09 pm

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#199 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:07 pm

18z GFS has what would be Calvin 250 hours out.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#200 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:12 pm

This doesn't look good for there to be another hyperactive EPAC year...

Image
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